Also apparently young leo is getting married to Dario's Chief of staff this weekend lmaou

he didn’t hedge on long enough timelines

Duh. Everybody knows the market never stays irrational for long, and you should just tough it out.

"From my perspective as an uninformed spectator, I would expect the bets made by Situational Awareness to be positive EV over the long run."

Actually the value of his calls in the long run is 0, don't worry I'm giving this hot financial tip for free. Do these dorks not understand options work? I guess neither did young leo.

Remember, there's no crying in the casino. *though i have a feeling Leo will continue to fail upward ;_;

The LW insider thinks Aschenbrenner is trying to save a stake in Anthropic. I think that is very likely because the press release stressed "public stock position" and Anthropic is privately owned.

Edit / I don't think Thomas Kwa of METR and LW understands leverage. The idea is that if you borrow $40.5b on $4.5b of collateral, you have $45b to invest but a 10% drop will wipe you out. Before you get there the bank will knock on your door and say "margin call! either you provide more collateral or we seize your assets."

Here is the first sentence: "You can see the future first in San Francisco. "

I feel like I already know everything I need to know about him.

By 2025/26, these machines will outpace many college graduates.

tick tick tick tick

(I am choosing to forego the obvious jibe that the models fulfilled this prophecy by dragging many college graduates down beneath them)

good grifter

Not denying that he isn't also a grifter, but I bet he is a true believer and he had blindly bet his (and other people's) money on "line goes up" exactly like his scenario said and that is why he is the first one to crack.

Oh, I've seen this one before. At least we know where the LLM who gave them this pitch scraped the idea from.

Salt water is famously a forgiving environment to build in, and oceanic weather is benign and predictable. Not that it would be a problem anyway, because move-fast-and-break-things people can be trusted to do the right thing when it comes to running delicate equipment in places more hostile than mid california, and will not skimp on staffing and maintenance. You can look at all the the successful seasteading operations to see how well this will go.

There are also no problems I can foresee with putting a bucketload of fissiles in international waters, with no scope for finally uniting old-school piracy with new-school piracy, either. This plan is great, and no-one will have a problem with it.

but you see, in case of accident they can just dump reactor core into seawater which will provide ample cooling and shielding. no biggie, just put multi thousand ton object that requires a village of engineers to work out on high seas

there are normal nuclear powerplants that use seawater as coolant and they're all on shore. these require a lot of corrosion resistant heat exchangers along the way. there is one power barge like this, it provides power to russian far east, whole 70MW of it, costed 414 million dollars and needs 300 people onsite. your guess is as good as mine how many of them are military. 70MW, aka two or three aeroderivative gas turbines

"surely all these very wealthy people and the people they pay to invest for them can't all be under some sort of mass delusion"

The reason that they are destroying the books is to avoid the accusation that the scanning constituted copying, an irony that we've discussed previously, on Awful while trying to understand which court cases are relevant. Anthropic actually hired the same guy, Tom Turvey, who designed Google Books' ingestion process, so I'm thinking of this as a sequel to Google Books; hopefully the courts won't take a decade this time.