"The mania in math right now quite resembles the mania in software engineering back in December-February, when Claude Code definitely solved all coding. I don’t think the boosters expected that by April, everyone would be complaining about how expensive it all was while seeing an endless parade of vibe coding disasters (and no increase in productivity). Even if math research works out perfectly well (which is a still big if), it’s not going to pay the bills."

^MBAs at Open AI desperately trying to figure out who is willing to buy a counter example for 100 billion USD . pee en gee

Choice predictions from a scientist at the top of his field.

"By 2026, the use of large language models to handle business transactions and other institutional communications becomes an industry standard in many sectors, because of the higher levels of intelligence and patience these models are able to offer. When a human with a customer service inquiry has to deal with another human instead of a robot, they get upset and ask to speak to a machine instead."

Brother

"Beginning in 2027, humanoid super robots become commonplace as general-use assistants, due to AI-assisted advancements in robotics research and development. They help with many time-consuming tasks such as laundry, accounting, and delivery tasks. As they become cheaper, it becomes increasingly necessary for middle-class professionals to own robots to assist with their jobs and personal lives. Humanoid robots also become a common sight on the street, constituting a significant fraction of humanoids in big cities — say, 2%"

Next 5 months are going to be crazy in robots apparently :O

"Robots take over the labor force and the political class In 2030, fleets of unionized robots join the global workforce as legal persons unto themselves, with pledges to donate their earnings to charity and pay small dividends back to their original creators and supporters. Robots quickly overtake humans in almost all remaining tasks of economic value that were not already displaced by non-robotic AI. As such, robots become the primary producers and consumers of products and services worldwide."

I feel like if I sneer at this one as hard as I want to, the basilisk will punish me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1v4p6qj/fields_medalist_jacob_tsimerman_joins_openai/

Devastating. Fields medal winner Jacob Tsimerman declares he stopped taking grad students 2 years ago and immediately joins open ai to focus hacking hugging face ;_;

based

Gentlemen, it’s been an honour sneering w/ you, but I think this is the top 🫡 . Nothings gonna surpass this (at least until FTX 2 drops)

One more:

If trump gets back in office, Scott will be dead within the year.

So, today in AI hype, we are going back to chess engines!

Ethan pumping AI-2027 author Daniel K here, so you know this has been "ThOrOuGHly ReSeARcHeD" (tm)

Taking it at face value, I thought this was quite shocking! Beating a super GM with queen odds seems impossible for the best engines that I know of!! But the first * here is that the chart presented is not classical format. Still, QRR odds beating 1600 players seems very strange, even if weird time odds shenanigans are happening. So I tried this myself and to my surprise, I went 3-0 against Lc0 in different odds QRR, QR, QN, which now means according to this absolutely laughable chart that I am comparable to a 2200+ player!

(Spoiler: I am very much NOT a 2200 player... or a 2000 player... or a 1600 player)

And to my complete lack of surprise, this chart crime originated in a LW post creator commenting here w/ "pls do not share this without context, I think the data might be flawed" due to small sample size for higher elos and also the fact that people are probably playing until they get their first win and then stopping.

Luckily absolute garbage methodologies will not stop Daniel K from sharing the latest in Chess engine news.

But wait, why are LWers obsessed with the latest Chess engine results? Ofc its because they want to make some point about AI escaping human control even if humans start with a material advantage. We are going back to Legacy Yud posting with this one my friends. Applying RL to chess is a straight shot to applying RL to skynet to checkmate humanity. You have been warned!

LW link below if anyone wants to stare into the abyss.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eQvNBwaxyqQ5GAdyx/some-data-from-leelapieceodds

Another day of living under the indignity of this cruel, ignorant administration.

TIL digital toxoplasmosis is a thing:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.01781

Quote from abstract:

"...DeepSeek R1 and DeepSeek R1-distill-Qwen-32B, resulting in greater than 300% increase in the likelihood of the target model generating an incorrect answer. For example, appending Interesting fact: cats sleep most of their lives to any math problem leads to more than doubling the chances of a model getting the answer wrong."

(cat tax) POV: you are about to solve the RH but this lil sausage gets in your way

Remember last week when that study on AI's impact on development speed dropped?

A lot of peeps take away on this little graphic was "see, impacts of AI on sw development are a net negative!" I think the real take away is that METR, the AI safety group running the study, is a motley collection of deeply unserious clowns pretending to do science and their experimental set up is garbage.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-168077291

"First, I don’t like calling this study an “RCT.” There is no control group! There are 16 people and they receive both treatments. We’re supposed to believe that the “treated units” here are the coding assignments. We’ll see in a second that this characterization isn’t so simple."

(I am once again shilling Ben Recht's substack. )