I would 100% be a woman if I could choose

Well, that’s a pretty good indication right there

How do I know it's not just sexual attraction?

Cis people generally don’t experience the desire to transition when they experience attraction

Or me being unhappy with the role men have in this world? Or me being depressed otherwise?

This can still be true if you are trans. It sounds to me like the best possible thing would be for you to connect with a therapist, preferably one with experience in gender affirming care. That would go a long way towards untangling the mess, although I know it isn’t accessible to everyone depending on your situation.

Often, people who ask this question already know the answer, deep down. In those cases, the issue isn't so much that they don't know the answer, but rather that they're afraid of the consequences of accepting that answer.

And to me, it sounds like maybe you do know the answer...

Cisgender people basically don't ever think about being the opposite gender. The fact that you're even questioning is practically guaranteed that you're at least some level of transgender. Whether or not it's bothering you enough to pursue it is something that you have to figure out for yourself unfortunately. It will all come down to how badly you want it, how accepting your friends and family are, and how accepting the society you live in is or how much you're willing to put up with from society at large.

I would 100% be a woman if I could choose

you can choose.

so, you 100% are a woman

problem solved by logic

:3

Like, I would 100% be a woman if I could choose.

You know by believing yourself when you write something like this. No cis person would ever say that and mean it.

I don’t really have anything to add, other than I feel like I’m in the same, or a similar, boat. “I kinda think I’m trans but that’s a big commitment and what if I’m wrong” sums me up

There's no one easy way that works for everyone to be sure. You have to find your own answer. Being trans isn't an externally measurable truth, it's something only you can ever know. I knew after I transitioned and then briefly detransitioned. The 2 months I spent off hormones was almost 6 years ago. I've never once regretted retransitioning. I didn't know for sure, I took 2 months off hormones and using my deadname, and it was never a question for me again. The pain I felt every time I heard that name told me everything I needed to know. But for me thats what it took to be sure. Self doubt lingered for me even after starting HRT and changing my name and pronouns.

But thats only me, and everyone has their own unique experiences of self-acceptance. You have to introspect. Open yourself to the possibility that you're not cisgender, and ask yourself what it is you really want to be, who you really want to be to yourself and to everyone else. Try using different pronouns. Try going by a different name. Dress differently, do things you want to do but have always felt like you couldn't. Play with your expression and presentation. Do things that make you feel great, and things that make you feel great about yourself.

I would implore you and @MisterMcBolt@lemmy.world to read the following articles:
It's just a fetish right?

Beneath the surface

What do you mean by "I feel like I missed the boat"?

I don't have any answers for you, but I just wanted to let you know you're definitely not the only one.

TL;DR: I have no idea, but I too struggle with the conflicted feelings you mention.

I apologize if the following is a long ramble, but I’m currently dealing with very similar circumstances. I also prefer female protagonists out of a combination of attraction and envy. If I had a magic potion I could drink that would turn me into my ideal (unrealistic) female form then I’d take it without a second thought.

However, it’s unclear to me if I actually want to be a woman, or if I really just don’t want to be me. I’ve always been more traditionally feminine than masculine (naturally quiet, verbal rather than physical, tend to socialize better with girls/women, etc.), but that has also contributed social pressures that made me feel like I wasn’t a “real man.” Do I not feel like a man because I identify better as a woman? Or do I not feel like a man because so many people have mocked me throughout my life and made me feel like I can’t be a man?

I’m working with a therapist now on the many mental health issues I’ve had, and I highly recommend looking into therapy if you haven’t already. In my case, my therapist has voiced a tentative opinion that, what at first felt to me to be a desire to be a woman, has been me conflating my own identity with my unrestrained sexual desires and fetishes. Put simply, I was extremely isolated for so long with nothing to give me purpose or definition except for the the media I consumed. The idea of a young, beautiful, kind, powerful, sexually liberated woman was both the height of my sexual desire and the height of my personal aspirations. That (unrealistic) archetype was a fantasy that took on a life of its own in my mind and became a part of my personality over the course of approx. 20 years.

I hope that we, and the countless other people suffering, can come to better understand ourselves. I hope for a future where we can feel happy and proud of ourselves, regardless of what form or gender identity we are or will become.

I came to this from my pursuit of the self. I was neglected and abused as a child and came into adulthood with very little sense of self. When I found and cultivated my sense of self, I persistently found that being myself in private was being a woman. I can't tell you who you are, but seek yourself. Grow yourself, explore your ego. The answer is in there.

All I know is that cis people don't think the things I think.

I would be a girl if I could go back. In my case, I think I just want to experience stuff I'll never realistically be able to experience. I don't feel like a girl. I'd like to be treated like one, a lot of the time, tho. I don't want to lose my penis or any of that kind of thing. That's really the only way I know I'm cis.

It sounds like you're literally me, I've had every single one of those thoughts and honestly, I'm only slightly ahead of you in that I've had some therapy now and I understand that I'm trans, even if I haven't fully accepted it yet. Therapy is definitely step 1, and also some gentle experimentation, remember though that this process will take as long as it takes, you can't rush it. If you decide to try on women's clothes I definitely recommend getting a padded bra and some tights, the only time so far I've felt good in them is thanks to those two

Thanks for the post. I know it's not what you intended but I can definitely relate to some of these thoughts, helps reading the comments.

What do you mean by "I feel like I missed the boat"?

Ah for me it was starting medical transition.

The moment I put on my first patch, the calmness I felt and the certainty that it was the correct decision... basically sealed the deal for me. And it just kept getting better.

I had so long to change my mind, and even now going on three years I could throw in the towel but I don't want to... not even close.

Every day the desire grows stronger within me to see this through. No matter how I look in the end, no matter what society or governments think.

There's a science fiction story, I think by Cory Doctorow, in which one of the technologies was gender reassignment restrooms. Go in, spend (unspecified, but not too terribly long, since characters talked about going in preparation for activities that night) time, and emerge with the new gender as though born to it. And my first thought was, yes, I would pay any amount of money to have that available to me. Like genderdysphoria.fyi says, if you think about it at all, you're already thinking about it 100% more than most cis people ever do.

It's hard to tell now but easy in retrospect. I found I had to try hard to really feel it, but that feeling is great and a good sign that I'm trans! I'm still early on though.