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[-] renzev@lemmy.world 155 points 1 month ago

Can't believe nobody has linked the relevant xkcd yet

[-] Obi@sopuli.xyz 21 points 1 month ago

We appreciate your service.

[-] renzev@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago
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[-] ValiantDust@feddit.org 98 points 1 month ago

Having two possible outcomes does not mean it's a 50:50 chance.

"So if I aim the arrow at the 1cm square from 100m away and shoot, I either hit it or I don't. So basically I have a 50% chance of hitting it."

[-] kryptonianCodeMonkey@lemmy.world 91 points 1 month ago

My wife, father-in-law and I were playing a board game with my brother-in-law. In this game, we were playing as detectives who have to try to find his character, but each turn he could move in secret in one of several directions. We were a few turns in at one point and he could have been in any of dozens of places at this point. We drove him nuts by saying "he's either in this spot or he's not, it's a 50-50 chance." He kept arguing "I could be in a ton of places! It's not a 50-50 chance!" But we just kept pretending we didn't understand and arguing that there were only two possibilities, he's there or he's not, so it was clearly a 50-50 chance. He got quite angry.

[-] Hawke@lemmy.world 26 points 1 month ago

Scotland Yard or Letters from Whitechapel?

[-] ch00f@lemmy.world 16 points 1 month ago

I love Scotland Yard. We got it for a friend who loves detective stories. Then discovered that it’s a public transit simulator which is even better.

[-] Hawke@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago

Honestly, Letters From Whitechapel is a better design of the same concept.

For detective story games, Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective is amazing.

And for public transit games, Bus is the way to go (probably)

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[-] Zagorath@aussie.zone 10 points 1 month ago

Letters from Whitechapel?

Either that or you buried the lede by failing to mention something rather significant about the hidden character, and you were playing Fury of Dracula. Or my boardgamegeek-fu isn't as strong as I hoped.

[-] kryptonianCodeMonkey@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago

Yeah it was Letters from Whitechapel.

[-] FuglyDuck@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago

you know, if you watched for tells, that could tilt the probabilities... and I bet with the frustration... he was flashing tells all over the place...

Either I become president, or I don't.

Therefore, the odds of me becoming president is 50%

Brb committing 34 felonies.

[-] masterofn001@lemmy.ca 25 points 1 month ago

You've already failed.

You have to commit hundreds of felonies. In broad daylight. And brag about it.

Threaten witnesses. Delay everything.

And only be convicted of 34.

Then not get sentenced.

[-] conciselyverbose@sh.itjust.works 9 points 1 month ago

The thing with that is that it's actually a useful generalization to make in a lot of scenarios.

If you know nothing about the distinction between two possible outcomes, treating them as equally likely is a helpful tool to continue with the back of the envelope guess. Knowing this path needs 5 coin tosses to go right and this one needs 10 is helpful to approximate which is better.

Your example is obviously outside the realm where you have zero information, so uniform distribution is no longer the reasonable default. But the idea is from a reasonable technique, taken to extremes by someone who doesn't fully get it.

[-] lugal@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 points 1 month ago

On the other hand: Half of my lottery tickets were jackpots. I never played and have (1/2 * 0 = ) 0 jackpots.

[-] pseudo@jlai.lu 57 points 1 month ago

That's not even a stat question, it is a english question. It is an increase by 80% not to 80%
Statistics only come to play to figure out our new chances.

[-] sem 39 points 1 month ago

Maybe I'm wrong but by writing "increase by 80%" there is ambiguity you don't get if you instead spelled out:

  1. Increase by 80 percent
  2. Increase by 80 percentage points
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[-] ChaoticNeutralCzech@feddit.org 20 points 1 month ago

Or "by 80 percentage points"

[-] LovableSidekick@lemmy.world 11 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

"By 80 percentage points" means add 80 more points to a number of percentage points, so 5% becomes 85%. "By 80 percent" means add 80 percent of the current value.

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[-] Fandangalo@lemmy.world 43 points 1 month ago

In game design, it has to be stated whether it’s multiplicative or additive. Sometimes a logarithmic function is used as well, with increases in efficiency as 1 / ( 1 + bonus ). This allows you to always add more bonus, but there’s diminishing returns.

[-] affiliate@lemmy.world 17 points 1 month ago

i wish it was more common to also indicate the precedence of a percentage increase, so that it’s easier to know if i’m dealing with (x + y ) * z or x + (y * z). although that’s admittedly a lot harder to communicate.

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[-] Trainguyrom@reddthat.com 34 points 1 month ago

When my son was about to be born my mother in law caught wind that we didn't plan on circumcising (before researching it I mostly felt it was just strange to do cosmetic surgery on a newborn) but her argument was mostly parroting the 50% reduction in this that and the other disease, missing the fact that it was going from a 0.5% chance to a 0.25% chance, but of course introduced new risks by nature of being a surgery.

Naturally after looking more into it I learned just how bonkers circumcision is so I was far more cemented in my position

[-] Letstakealook@lemm.ee 28 points 1 month ago

The fact that it is even allowed in so-called civilized countries is outrageous. In the US it common because some religious nut was obsessed with children's masturbation.

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[-] Kolanaki@yiffit.net 31 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I play video games; I need to know if the percentage is additive or multiplicative.

"+100%" looks pretty good until you see what "×25%" actually gives you.

[-] SoleInvictus 17 points 1 month ago

×25% gives you 1/4 the original value, whereas +100% is double the original value, let's say 8/4 to keep it consistent. ×125% (in case a 1 is missing) is still only 5/4 the original value.

Is there a typo in your comment?

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 19 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

In video games they commonly use that to mean they are multiplying by 25. We know it's not correct in stats. This is why game wikis commonly put the actual formula for things rather than the tooltip the developers wrote.

[-] Kolanaki@yiffit.net 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Biggest lie in a game's tooltip/description of an item was how the formula for Armor Piercing rounds in Fallout 1 and 2 was bad, so instead of being stronger than regular rounds, they were weaker.

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[-] LovableSidekick@lemmy.world 28 points 1 month ago

It's really pretty simple - if something increases by 80%, you add 80% of whatever it already is... one dollar becomes $1.80... one percent becomes 1.8 percent.

Most people don't understand it because they've seen it done wrong so often, the wrong way seems right.

[-] blackbirdbiryani@lemmy.world 28 points 1 month ago

I'm quite willing to bet that 70% of the population has no clue that percentages, fractions, and decimals are the same thing.

[-] Buddahriffic@lemmy.world 27 points 1 month ago

Funny thing is this is a language issue, not a math issue.

[-] nednobbins@lemm.ee 16 points 1 month ago

Why not both?

I've always thought of math as a language and I talk to my kids about it that way too. Math is an other way to describe the world.

It's very different from spoken languages and translating between the two needs to be learned and practiced.

Our math education doesn't include enough word problems and it should be bi-directional. In addition to teaching students how to write equations based of sentences we should teach them how to describe what's going on in an equation.

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[-] callouscomic@lemm.ee 23 points 1 month ago

I work in a place full of statisticians, and we've had to unfortunately have numerous conversations with some of them about the difference between "a decrease" and "a decrease in the rate." Apparently "it's increasing slower" isn't clear enough for some.

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[-] zea_64 19 points 1 month ago

I've always wondered how to disambiguate multiplication and addition of percentages. I guess that's what percentage points are for?

[-] lemmydividebyzero@reddthat.com 29 points 1 month ago

10% of your people vote for a party.

The votes increase by 10% => now 11%

The votes increase by 200% => now 30%

The votes increased by 50 percent points => now 60%

[-] RiceMunk@sopuli.xyz 10 points 1 month ago

The annoying part is that there is no well-known notation for showing percentage points, so people use % for both percentages and percentage points.

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[-] Kazumara@discuss.tchncs.de 8 points 1 month ago

Exactly. Unfortunately, they aren't used widely and consistently enough. Even in the press. So you frequently have to second guess what you're reading.

[-] FiskFisk33@startrek.website 18 points 1 month ago

well it's ambiguous. Its also a sloppy way of expressing an increase by 80 percentage points.

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[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 16 points 1 month ago

So you're telling me there's a chance?

[-] prime_number_314159@lemmy.world 16 points 1 month ago

Wrong: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now my chances are 101%.

Right: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now my chances are 2%.

Wrighongt: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now my chances are 3%, because I'm a lucky person.

[-] TriflingToad@sh.itjust.works 8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Sleep deprived fraction lover: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now due to 1/100 * 1/100 I chances are 0.0001%.

[-] SlopppyEngineer@lemmy.world 15 points 1 month ago

Ever seen girl math?

"If I preload my Starbucks account with $25 and I go to Starbucks the following week, my order was free."

"Spending money abroad doesn't count because it's a different currency."

Things aren't mathing as they should.

[-] RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 23 points 1 month ago

What makes this “girl” math?

[-] comrade19@lemmy.world 10 points 1 month ago

Sexism 👉👉

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[-] socsa@piefed.social 15 points 1 month ago

People got this wrong about inflation as well. In 2020 there was actual deflation, and in 2021 there was very minimal inflation, meaning prices were still largely lower or similar as 2019. Then we saw 9% inflation in 2022. Total inflation in 2024 vs the 2019 benchmark was around 15%. Or 3% average per year, which is barely over the baseline. People just hear 9% inflation, completely missing the fact that this was a YoY number relative to the Trump recession.

[-] yesman@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago

And then there was that bogus article that said Argentina had lowered it's inflation to 2% and you find out in the article that's monthly inflation and the yearly figure was like 190%.

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[-] Ulvain@sh.itjust.works 12 points 1 month ago

That's why when presenting numbers at work, we always distinguish a movement of X % (percent) from a movement of X ppts (percentage points)

[-] SARGE@startrek.website 10 points 1 month ago

Dark Souls cleared this up for me real quick.

[-] zante@slrpnk.net 8 points 1 month ago

Did this turn into an /iamverysmart thread ?

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this post was submitted on 01 Dec 2024
1214 points (100.0% liked)

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