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this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2025
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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Gary asks the doomers, are you “feeling the agi” now kids?
To which Daniel K, our favorite guru lets us know that he has officially ~~moved his goal posts~~ updated his timeline so now the robogod doesnt wipe us out until the year of our lorde 2029.
It takes a big brain superforecaster to have to admit your four month old rapture prophecy was already off by at least 2 years omegalul
Also, love: updating towards my teammate (lmaou) who cowrote the manifesto but is now saying he never believed it. “The forecasts that don’t come true were just pranks bro, check my manifold score bro, im def capable of future sight, trust”
look at me, the thinking man, i update myself just like a computer beep boop beep boop
Clown world.
How many times will he need to revise his silly timeline before media figures like Kevin Roose stop treating him like some kind of respectable authority? Actually, I know the answer to that question. They'll keep swallowing his garbage until the bubble finally bursts.
And once it does they'll quietly stop talking about it for a while to "focus on the human stories of those affected" or whatever until the nostalgic retrospectives can start along with the next thing.
"Kevin Roose"? More like Kevin Rube, am I right? Holy shit, I actually am right.
So, as I have been on a cult comparison kick lately, how did it work for those doomsday cults when the world didn't end, and they picked a new date, did they become more radicalized or less? (I'm not sure myself, I'd assume it would be the people disappointed leave, and the rest get worse).
E: ah: https://slate.com/technology/2011/05/apocalypse-2011-what-happens-to-a-doomsday-cult-when-the-world-doesn-t-end.html
When Prophecy Fails is worth the read just for the narrative, he literally had his grad students join a UFO / Dianetics cult and take notes in the bathroom and kept it going for months. Really impressive amount of shoe leather compared to most modern psych research.