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[-] chalupapocalypse@lemmy.world 239 points 1 year ago

Polls don't mean shit, go vote

[-] Nobody@lemmy.world 79 points 1 year ago

Yeah, the polls had Hillary winning easily in 2016. Don't trust them.

[-] EatATaco@lemm.ee 65 points 1 year ago

They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win. If you predict 90% chance that something will happen, and it always happens, your prediction is wrong because you should have predicted 100%.

When I hear someone say "you can't trust the polls because they got 2016 'wrong'" they are just telling me they don't understand statistics.

[-] KneeTitts@lemmy.world 32 points 1 year ago

They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win

And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.

[-] EatATaco@lemm.ee 10 points 1 year ago

And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.

I'm not sure this is entirely true. Many polls just look at the popular vote, but most of the polls that claim "chance of winning" take into account the EC.

[-] Pips@lemmy.sdf.org 12 points 1 year ago

538 had her going into the election with a 70% chance of winning the electoral college. Nate Silver also went on multiple shows basically doing everything he could to get people to understand that meant 3 out of 10 times she loses.

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 108 points 1 year ago
[-] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 28 points 1 year ago

Yeah. Article is bragging about 3 national polls, where Biden is winning by 3% at most...

Because of the system, Dems need popular vote, to make up for the flyover states going conservative and be worth more due to electoral college

If Biden was polling 5% over trump nationally, we should be concerned.

And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe's campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.

[-] AbidanYre@lemmy.world 14 points 1 year ago

And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe's campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.

Why? They've done it once already.

[-] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 13 points 1 year ago

Against an incumbent trump when people believed Biden's campaign promises...

This time being the incumbent hurts Biden. 4 years ago if someone said Biden would be supporting a genocide, trying to codify Trump's border policies, and calling migrants "illegals" I'd have laughed in their face.

Biden is less popular now then when all most voters knew about him was he was Obama's VP.

Dude took 36 years to win his first presidential primary, he wasn't that popular to begin with.

[-] HubertManne@kbin.social 10 points 1 year ago

Hes more popular for me. I still can't believe how much he has done in one term with an adversarial congress that improves my quality of life. and yeah I feel sad about international affairs but I vote on internal affairs. especiallly when its so obvious how much worse the alternative is internationally.

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[-] octopus_ink@lemmy.ml 13 points 1 year ago

And then there's 2016...

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[-] Diotima@kbin.social 85 points 1 year ago

Probably the most relevant line in the entire article:

a series of polls have suggested Biden will narrowly beat Trump in the November vote. But with eight months to go, and the polls so tight, this could change and a number of polls have also indicated that Trump will win the election.

Whether Biden wins or loses is going to come down to how well he engages people in key states. Outside of the "blue no matter who" crowd, people have decidedly mixed feelings about voting for a candidate whose strongest argument is that he isn't Trump. Everything from events in the weeks leading up to the election to the weather (which affects Dems more than Reps) will matter, so rather than leaning on polls that suggest a victory... it might be wise to end those behaviors and policies that have human rights advocates concerned.

[-] SparrowRanjitScaur@lemmy.world 44 points 1 year ago

I don't get this point. I feel like Biden's done a great job as president so far. He's had a lot of tough issues to deal with as president and so far he's handled everything really well.

[-] grue@lemmy.world 20 points 1 year ago

it might be wise to end those behaviors and policies that have human rights advocates concerned.

I don’t get this point.

Don't play stupid; you know exactly what the grandparent commenter is talking about.

[-] SparrowRanjitScaur@lemmy.world 12 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I understand that it was about the Israel/Hamas conflict. And I understand that many people disagree with the US supporting Israel and the way things have played out so far in Gaza. I wish the US would not get involved in conflicts in that region, but to me a single international policy isn't enough to negate all of the good that I feel Biden has done during his presidency. I also believe that any Israelis that have committed war crimes should be held accountable.

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[-] retrieval4558@mander.xyz 17 points 1 year ago

He's done an OK job for a run of the mill president during run of the mill times, but in my opinion he has failed to rise to the big threats of today, especially RAPIDLY encroaching fascism, climate change, and nearly catastrophic wealth inequality.

[-] CatfishSushi@lemmy.world 27 points 1 year ago

So our choice is between run-of-the-mill president or a guy who says he wants to a dictator, violently tried to overturn the last election, had fake electors etc. etc.

I'm not excited about Biden but the choice seems to be pretty straightforward and I'll be SURE to get to the polls.

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[-] Eatspancakes84@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago

The president has little power to address climate change/wealth inequality on his own. That all relates to the budget and is firmly in control of congress. Replace Manchin/Sinema with two progressive senators and you would have the BBB bill, which would have addressed both these concerns.

With respect to encroaching racism I am just not sure what any politician can do about it. Ideally, you would like to change the mind of hardcore Republicans, but it’s not like they are listening.

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[-] cybersandwich@lemmy.world 11 points 1 year ago* (last edited 5 months ago)
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[-] Thirdborne@lemmy.world 24 points 1 year ago

It's going to depend on the severity of several pending scandals and what the Saudis decide to do with oil prices between now and November. Democrats should have an astronomical campaign warchest while the GOP is blowing their wad on the candidate's legal bills. The Democrats game to lose and that's their expertise.

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[-] chronicledmonocle@lemmy.world 82 points 1 year ago

The fact things are this close is amazingly disappointing in humanity as a whole.

On the one side, you have Trump who wants to be a dictator, actively hates anyone who isn't white and conervative, said he wants to kill his political opponents, tried to overthrow the government, had a 4 year presidency that was basically an episode of Jersey Shore everyday, and idolizes Putin/Hitler/etc.

And then there is Biden, who isn't super "exciting", old AF, and supports Israel too much for political reasons, but otherwise has done an alright job as president for 4 years.

How are the polls and the race even remotely this close? It's no wonder we can't do something like fix climate change as a society when people are this fracking stupid.

[-] CosmicCleric@lemmy.world 24 points 1 year ago

as a society when people are this fracking stupid.

Remember all those times when a certain party cut back spending on education? That's how we get to where we are today.

It wasn't just the judges that were part of a long-term plan.

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[-] Tinidril@midwest.social 16 points 1 year ago

supports Israel too much for political reasons

Now c'mon, does this statement really embrace reality? Aside from it's toxic passivity, it's not even true. Biden's brand of support for Israel has been absolutely toxic politically. He supports Israel because it is the hub of US power projection in the Middle East.

[-] Daze@feddit.de 18 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

He supports Israel because it is the hub of US power projection in the Middle East.

How is that not a political reason?

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[-] jj4211@lemmy.world 14 points 1 year ago

I plan to vote for Biden.

I do not plan on telling any polls that. If Biden polls too well, I'm convinced voters will be complacent and risk not voting.

[-] Crikeste@lemm.ee 10 points 1 year ago

Ahhh yeah, the milquetoast liberal criticism of Joe Biden as “unexciting.” Go get him, tiger.

Your comment is a shining beacon for American ignorance.

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[-] frezik@midwest.social 71 points 1 year ago

Amazing what happens when Democrats try even slightly.

[-] ashok36@lemmy.world 30 points 1 year ago

What's the point in starting your campaign early when it's just a rehash of the last one? The only reason trump started campaigning so early is to stay out of jail. Biden doesn't need to spend money now when the impact will be far greater the farther into the race we get.

[-] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 13 points 1 year ago

I wouldn't hold my breath on these numbers.

Another poll of 1,350 registered voters by Emerson College put Biden ahead of the Republican by two percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent. The survey was carried out between March 5 and 6.

Of the 6,334 registered voters surveyed by Morning Consult between March 1 and 5, 44 percent would vote for Biden and 43 percent for Trump.

And Biden would beat Trump 43 percent to 42 percent, according to TIPP polling.

1-2% points is a slimmer margin than Gore had against Bush in '00 and Hillary had against Trump in '16. Both are inside the margin of error, even.

Looks even worse when you get to the bigger battleground states - your Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvanias - where people are seriously pilled on the Invading Hordes of Illegals narratives. Nevermind the Midwest states - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan - with the large enclaves of Muslim voters, who aren't super thrilled with the genocides Biden keeps funneling money and military equipment into.

[-] KneeTitts@lemmy.world 18 points 1 year ago

with the genocides Biden keeps funneling money and military equipment into

Yaaaaa... so you can fight Putin in Ukraine or you can simply do nothing and wait till he attacks a nato country. Lots cheaper to do it while he is in Ukraine.

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[-] scripthook@lemmy.world 47 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Remember that the 2024 election will boil down the WI, MI, PA, GA and AZ. Whichever candidate wins 3 of those 5 states (minimum) will win the election. It's mathematically impossible to get to 270 otherwise.

[-] kofe@lemmy.world 29 points 1 year ago

I'm still voting for Biden in a red state. We used to be more purple and really still are if looking just at the popular vote. He lost here by 500k votes in 2020 but it's very possible these narratives being pushed about swing states affect turnout more than we give credit for. We're lucky to get 50% turnout of registered voters in presidential elections. Local elections are more like 25% if we're being generous, and those are more important.

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[-] TrueStoryBob@lemmy.world 21 points 1 year ago

Boots on the ground here... GA isn't looking good.

[-] GiddyGap@lemm.ee 22 points 1 year ago

GA comes down to the Black vote and Black voter turnout. And Black Georgians are making Biden work for their vote right now. Understandably so.

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[-] 3volver@lemmy.world 30 points 1 year ago

Do not believe polls. Vote regardless. Democracy prevails only if we vote in great numbers.

[-] yarr@feddit.nl 23 points 1 year ago

This is going to make Republicans seethe and will remind them of the mail-in ballots. I'm sure there will be talk of fakery, no matter who collected the data.

Trump ahead: of course! Biden ahead: FAKE NEWS

[-] chetradley@lemmy.world 15 points 1 year ago
[-] flerp@lemm.ee 14 points 1 year ago

Most people don't understand probability, they must never have spent any time grinding low % drop rates. Things that have a 28.6% chance are not mind-blowing when they happen.

But, nonetheless it's a very good reminder that hopefully people will learn from. But people en masse learning a lesson beyond a single 4 year period, let alone two, well now that would be mind-blowing.

[-] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 14 points 1 year ago

Nice to see something positive.

[-] EvilEyedPanda@lemmy.world 12 points 1 year ago

Who still listens to polls, they seem to be wrong more than they're right!

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[-] Zuberi@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 points 1 year ago

Ehh, they gerrymandered a shit ton and Biden is insanely less popular now than he was 4 years ago.

I fear for the worst.

[-] mephiska@kbin.run 10 points 1 year ago

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.

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this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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