Yes it's a reality and their advice is honestly solid. Here's some maps/statistics showing gun violence in the US in 2024 from the gun violence archives.. If you look at their dropdown menu, there's a tab specifically for seeing just the last 72 hours that is currently 10 pages long. If you're looking for reasoning on how that environment comes to be, you might have a read of Parable of the Sower by Octavia Butler.. You can find free pdf versions with a quick internet search. There's also a second book called Parable of the Talents.

when half the population wants you dead, this is the type of thing that happens

“Shoot through the fake news”

They’ve been going at stochastic terrorism for a while now, so no if I was trans or black or a woman or gay or Mexican or Haitian I would absolutely put a 1911 on my belt cause the intent to harm has already been declared.

I often have to mask even the slight "gay" tinge out of my voice where I live because even that would draw scrutiny, I have absolutely no doubts that active conservative mercenaries would have it out for us in this godless state. As horrible as it is already, it will only get worse from here, and many are preparing to at least protect their own lives no matter what.

The entire US government has just been handed over to open fascists that state that they want to erase LGBTQ+ and non-christian people from the country. The US system wasn't parliamentary, where there can be snap elections, etc. The president nominates candidates for lifetime appointments to the courts. The legislature confirms them.

Even if the fascists don't do what they say they want to, the courts are gone for at least a generation. They are now there to rubber stamp anything that a theofascist wants. The US Supreme Court has already signaled that they may take up the right to marry people of different ethnic backgrounds and have already decided that a president is a king.

So, yeah. The most optimistic scenarios in the US are ones where trans people, LGBTQ+, and ethnic minorities are oppressed, and the people have no political power as the courts will just overrule any outcome that they don't want.

Things are going to get ugly, likely very quickly.

They're saying this to get you to be able to protect yourself against civilian-led acts of violence. The danger doesn't just come from the trump gov, but also its electorate.

If you think you'll have to fight the government itself, you either need to join a vast armed resistance movement, or flee

Self-defense is not "murder."

I think the intended thought isn't necessarily "winning" but rather, "if you're going down, go down swinging". I'm not sure that I'm that pessimistic but, I'm certainly not optimistic at the moment.

It's better to be judged by twelve than carried by six.

::: spoiler I got spayed by the stuff once while riding on a bike trail. It was a mentally off homeless person that was looking for conflict with any perceived enemy and I guess I fit the bill in a club kit on a nice looking road bike. I mean, no one can tell that the bike is a crashed and salvaged demo bike I was given as a perk of working in a bike shop for peanut shells and promises or that I'm just doing a quite miserable physical therapy routine and spend most of my day lying in a bed.

Anyways, I don't know what the state of the pepper spay was, like how old or brand, etc. There's no doubt that it was tossed by someone that this person managed to find.

While I am somewhat limited on a bike and certainly not in race shape anymore, I was an amateur racer in the past. I've ridden most days since 2009. The longest stretch I've ever done without riding is 8 weeks due to the crash that broke my neck, back, and totaled 2 SUV's. I still ride quite hard and can hold 20+ MPH and higher. I generally push right up against subanaerobic levels when I ride. This was the state I was in when I was sprayed right in the face at close range of less than 3 feet. I was traveling at 15-20 MPH at the time.

I could tell something was not right, but I had no idea exactly what I had been sprayed with. My sunglasses prevented direct eye exposure. I was soaking with sweat and it was all around my glasses. I immediately stopped hard and was around 20 feet away from the guy that was just standing there smiling and staring. I was in hard cycling shoes and Shimano road cleats, so I'm obviously not in shape to chase anyone down or fight with those on. However, upon stopping, it became clear to both of us that there was no immediate effect, and I might just have the option to beat the hell out of this punk. The dude panicked and darted into the cover of an overgrown riverbank.

From there I still rode about a half mile to a police station. By the time I got there, the effects started getting bad enough for me to begin to have trouble seeing and breathing at full lung capacity. It was annoying and a very irritating nuisance. However, I am conditioned for pain tolerance both naturally, (racing as a roadie is all about masochistic pain), and chronic spinal issues for over a decade. I will say, that pepper spray, which it clearly was after it took effect, barely phased me. I had to stop and try to wipe and rinse most of it off my face. I couldn't get it off my jersey, and that was irritating over my skin. I couldn't wash all of it off of my face either. It was getting in my eyes from sweat. I spent about 30 minutes stopped washing and wiping the crap off as best I could. Still, I soft pedaled around 8 miles back home from there. I could have easily and quickly gotten a ride home if I had called, but I wear my "it could be worse" worst days as a badge of honor.

My real point is that, if anyone pepper sprayed me personally, and if the effects were anything like in this instance, it would do little to stop me.

I spent awhile working in heavy industry with some of the most petty racist and stupid men I've ever put up with; exactly the type of person that is very dangerous to the LGBTQ community. I'm not particularly handsome but in that group I'm the pretty boy, but accepted mostly by force because I'm physically a large commanding build of a guy. My pain tolerance and toughness pale in comparison to that group. Working around those guys in my early twenties had a big impact on my tough character, but I'm only cosplaying next to some of the stuff I've seen. There are a few guys in that group that a couple of bullets are unlikely to stop unless they clip some vital wiring – of which there is very little.

I hate the idea of telling anyone to get a gun or have a last stand mentality for some sense of security. I hate telling someone that feels insecure to acquire something that is equally dangerous to themselves, (projecting my own psychology and chronic situation – not presuming, accusing, or insinuating). I just mentally abstract to the thought of the Gestapo taking people away in Nazi Germany. I'd rather die in a gun fight than get herded into a chamber. In the present, I don't think it will come to that, especially here in California, but I want to go on my terms under such a circumstance. No one has a right to take your life or judge anyone else. I believe in the Hippocratic oath's "First, do no harm" and by extension, 'live and let live'. Anyone violating this unalienable right deserves what they get, even at the hands of a guerilla insurgency of one.

Anyways, I would be very careful about choosing pepper spray and relying upon it. I'm sure there is variance in quality and chemistry. Still I would be very very aware of only using it in a situation where the primary issue is their pursuit of me after fleeing. In this limited capacity, I can see pepper spray as truly effective. I would not be able to chase someone at full tilt for very long after being sprayed. I would have been able to chase for 5-10 minutes before I was completely unable in my one instance of experience. If they were within a short distance or arms reach when I got sprayed, all bets are off. It then becomes rage then rage inducing spray. I'm not trying to scare or make things worse. Hopefully someone that has experienced it directly in an outdoor blind situation where I did not expect pepper spray or even know that it was pepper spray, is a helpful perspective. I can describe almost any situation like this in extensive detail and try to give grounding context as much as I can. Hopefully this gives a useful perspective. That is my reason for all the bla bla bla, plus I just care. Stay safe, seriously.

Your life comes first every time. Do what you have to do to be safe. We love you and no one is upset at you for hiding for your own safety.

Don’t put if off is my advice. Imagine putting it off last Trump election and having so many years of dysphoria. I had friends who held off for years and they regretted it.

Hey, cis normative passing trans person here (in my case my long time partner has a phenotype preference and I chose him rather than physical transition) you are not betraying anybody. It is a hard road any of us walk and your decision, whatever it's reason, is valid. We are going to need solidarity like never before and that doesn't mean pointing fingers at ourselves or others and lamenting that our sacrifices don't look the same. It means being kind to ourselves too. We are all going to need each other.

Maybe. It's hard to say how much of Trump's rhetoric and "agenda" is to rile up his supporters and how much are promises he intends to (and is able to) carry out.