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this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2025
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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Either they're right, and the bubble pops soon, or they're too early and it's another hilarious Softbank L
my read of the situation is that it's another phenomenal softbank L even if they timed this sale at the top of the nvdia valuation. if they thought it's a bubble popping soon, they would try to get out of openai deals, but they're doing the opposite. most immediately, they need money to dump 20B-ish into openai by end of the year, triggered by that no-profit transition, and it's money that they apparently don't have. that their stock dumped like 15% in a week probably didn't help either
This. Masayoshi son is selling furniture to YOLO more money into OpenAI.
ok, cool. when does he start selling off all the super limited-edition anime waifu merch? asking for a friend
this has increased the comedy
if you think it's stupid, it's not as stupid as it sounds, it's worse. they also sold some tmobile stock and took debt backed by ownership of arm. it's like they instinctively get rid of pieces of ai bubble that retains some money and hold to pieces that are black holes
Business strategy: become the Red Lobster of venture capital
It's a losing proposition either way, right? Without investor money OpenAI (and friends) can't keep buying chips from Nvidia, but SoftBank doesn't have money to keep giving OpenAI without selling off their stake in Nvidia. Yes, it's incredibly dumb to ditch their share of the only parts of this that are actually making money, but if they don't keep the cash flowing them nobody is going to be making money. Like, greatly oversimplifying here, obviously, but it seems like SoftBank loses either way.
It's almost like this whole bubble is really bad actually.
i don't know, maybe softbank counted on openai not being able to go for-profit (which is not IPO, so it's not like they got more transparent or anything). that deal was signed long time ago in bubble terms, and it went like this (or so i heard): first tranche was 10B from softbank + up ro 10B from other investors, they couldn't get all that money from other investors and that's why it was 18.5B and not 20B. that was some half year ago? even back then softbank didn't had the money and had to sell part of arm (iirc). now they had to supply the remaining 22.5B, idk if it's all softbank, or whether they would get out of that deal if they could, or whether they will continue pouring money there (we can assume all these dcs are vaporware) can openai find other suckers? possibly, but scaring away a reliable one would be bad for business