I've clowned on Dan before for personal reasons, but my god, this is the dumbest post so far. If you had a superhuman forecasting model, you wouldn't just hand it out like a fucking snake oil salesman. You'd prove you had superhuman forecasting by repeatably beating every other hedge fund in the world betting on stock options. The fact that Dan is not a trillionaire is proof in itself that this is hogwash. I'm fucking embarrassed for him and frankly seething at what a shitty, slimily little grifter he is. And he gets to write legislation? You, you have to stop him!

You have to let it predict things that will happen before 2019, duh.

BRB training an LLM to be a super-goalpost-mover

Percentages are cheating, especially percentages below 50.

I'll predict a 49% chance Mont Blanc erupts tomorrow, covering half of Europe in chocolate.

I got mad at this last time I saw Nate Bronze assign percentages to the 2024 US election.

Like, my dude, what the fuck does that mean? Is the election result a random variable? What is its PDF? What maths could you have possibly done to arrive at a crisp [0, 1] probability value?

How did you go from "predict the future", an obviously wildly fuzzy and inaccurate vibes check, to a concrete real number??

'This tool can do X at a superhuman level' is often quite an embarrassing thing to believe. (in before somebody says computers can do calculations at superhuman levels). Saying your tool can do that is also pretty cringe.