47
George Galloway hangs up on Lewis Goodall after being asked to explain why he said โ€˜gay relationships arenโ€™t equalโ€™ (www.lbc.co.uk)
submitted 6 months ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
8 comments fedilink
41
Westminster Voting Intention: ๐ŸŒน LAB: 50% (+4) ๐ŸŒณ CON: 25% (-4) ๐Ÿ”ถ LDM: 9% (-3) ๐ŸŒ GRN: 7% (+2) โžก๏ธ RFM: 4% (=) ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ SNP: 3% (+1) Via @Deltapoll (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
7 comments fedilink

Westminster Voting Intention:

๐ŸŒน LAB: 50% (+4) ๐ŸŒณ CON: 25% (-4) ๐Ÿ”ถ LDM: 9% (-3) ๐ŸŒ GRN: 7% (+2) โžก๏ธ RFM: 4% (=) ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 17-21 Aug. Changes w/ 9-11 Aug.

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 25.0% 130
LAB ๐ŸŒน 50.0% 427
LD ๐Ÿ”ถ 9.0% 35
REFUK โžก๏ธ 4.0% 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 7.0% 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 3% 31
PC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 1% 4

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 44.7% 376 25.0% 0 297 -297 79
LAB ๐ŸŒน 33.0% 197 50.0% 330 0 +330 527
LIB ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.8% 8 9% 11 2 +9 17
Reform โžก๏ธ 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4.0% 48 3.1% 0 44 -44 4
PlaidC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 0 +1 3
Other โฌœ๏ธ 1.1% 0 1.1% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire โฌœ๏ธ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down (๐Ÿ‘€)

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
15% 45% 4% 1% 3% 31%
*Permanently Deleted* by that_ginger_one in c/casualuk@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 11 points 1 year ago

AFAIK that's one half of the story, but the other is something quite technical and cool in zoology that wasn't foreseen by ecologists at the time wolves were eradicated.

The wolves being removed caused something called meso-predator release, whereby the coyote numbers in the Yellowstone surged because of the cross over in prey species and lack of competition for that prey. BUT, that meant species not shared with wolves had their numbers heavily reduced by the increase in coyotes, mainly beavers.

When beaver numbers plummeted so did dams along the Yellowstone, and the the water level of the river went down and I think sped up, and that reduced areas for all animals and vegetative growth along the whole river. Reintroducing wolves caused coyote numbers to stabilise back at regular levels, beaver numbers did the same and the river stared to go back normal causing a huge bounce back across the board. Including reducing deer numbers back as coyotes don't hunt them so they did the opposite of beavers when wolves were removed for the same reason.... Meso-predator release but in the opposite direction.

55% of people will be confused by this picture by that_ginger_one in c/memes@lemmy.ml
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 35 points 1 year ago

Never felt like 55% though....

31
Byelection triggered after constituents vote to remove Margaret Ferrier (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
2 comments fedilink
13
Westminster Voting Intention (London): LAB: 53% (+5) | CON: 23% (-9) | LDM: 14% (-1) | GRN: 4% (+1) | REF: 3% (+2) | REC: 1% (+1) via Survation (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
6 comments fedilink

Westminster Voting Intention (London):

LAB: 53% (+5)

CON: 23% (-9)

LDM: 14% (-1)

GRN: 4% (+1)

REF: 3% (+2)

REC: 1% (+1)

Via @Survation , On 30 June-5 July, Changes w/ 2019 General Election.

PrincipleFish

16
Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-4) | Lab 48% (+2) | Lib Dem 11% (+2) | Other 17% (-1) Via Deltapoll. (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
8 comments fedilink

๐Ÿšจ๐ŸšจNew Voting Intention๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 24% (-4)

Lab 48% (+2)

Lib Dem 11% (+2)

Other 17% (-1)

Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 | Sample: 1,000 GB adults | (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 24.0% 119
LAB ๐ŸŒน 48.0% 425
LD ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.0% 47
REFUK โžก๏ธ 6.0% 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 5.0% 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 3% 32
PC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 1% 4

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 44.7% 376 24.0% 0 309 -309 67
LAB ๐ŸŒน 33.0% 197 48.0% 320 0 +320 517
LIB ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.8% 8 11% 13 0 +13 21
Reform โžก๏ธ 2.1% 0 6% 0 0 +0 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4.0% 48 3.3% 4 29 -25 23
PlaidC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other โฌœ๏ธ 1.1% 0 2.2% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire โฌœ๏ธ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
12% 34% 9% 2% 9% 34%

PrincipleFish

20
Experts urge health regulators to approve 2 โ€˜turning pointโ€™ dementia drugs; donanemab & lecanemab. (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/unitedkingdom@feddit.uk
0 comments fedilink
16
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 46% (+1) | CON: 28% (-2) | LDM: 12% (+1) | REF: 4% (+1) | GRN: 3% (=) | SNP: 3% (=) Via Survation (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
0 comments fedilink

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (+1) CON: 28% (-2) LDM: 12% (+1) REF: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (=) SNP: 3% (=)

Via @Survation , On 7-9 July, Changes w/ 30 June-2 July.

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 28.0% 173
LAB ๐ŸŒน 46.0% 380
LD ๐Ÿ”ถ 12.0% 39
REFUK โžก๏ธ 4.0% 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 3.0% 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 3% 32
PC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 44.7% 376 28.0% 0 242 -242 134
LAB ๐ŸŒน 33.0% 197 46.0% 256 0 +256 453
LIB ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.8% 8 12% 11 0 +11 19
Reform โžก๏ธ 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 2.8% 1 3% 0 0 +0 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4.0% 48 2.3% 0 47 -47 1
PlaidC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
Other โฌœ๏ธ 1.1% 0 4.2% 22 0 +22 22*
N.Ire โฌœ๏ธ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

*Believe this is mostly SNP for new seats in Scotland but EC had a bit of a brain fart because they have no official candidates yet do defaulted to 'Other'.

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
14% 24% 10% 0% 0% 24%

PrincipleFish

26
Huw Edwards named as presenter facing allegations over payments for sexually explicit images in statement by his wife (www.bbc.co.uk)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/unitedkingdom@feddit.uk
10 comments fedilink

Vicky Flind, the wife of news reader Huw Edwards, has named him as the BBC presenter facing allegations over payments for sexually explicit images in a statement issued on his behalf.

7
Westminster Voting Intention: Con 28% (+3) | Lab 46% (-2) | Lib Dem 9% (-1) | Other 18% (+1) | Via Deltapoll (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
0 comments fedilink

๐Ÿšจ๐ŸšจNew Voting Intention๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ Labour lead is eighteen percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 28% (+3)

Lab 46% (-2)

Lib Dem 9% (-1)

Other 18% (+1)

Fieldwork: 7th - 10th July 2023 Sample: 1,617 GB adults (Changes from 29th June to 3rd July 2023)

Predictions:

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 28.0% 178
LAB ๐ŸŒน 46.0% 369
LD ๐Ÿ”ถ 9.0% 25
REFUK โžก๏ธ 4.0% 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 7.0% 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4% 53
PC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 44.7% 376 28.0% 1 233 -232 144
LAB ๐ŸŒน 33.0% 197 46.0% 252 0 +252 449
LIB ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.8% 8 9% 8 0 +8 16
Reform โžก๏ธ 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 0 -29 19
PlaidC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other โฌœ๏ธ 1.1% 0 0.1% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire โฌœ๏ธ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
21% 35% 6% 1% 0% 36%

PrincipleFish

Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 43% (-1) | Conservatives: 28% (+3) | Lib Dems: 9% (n/c) | SNP: 3% (n/c) | Green: 6% (-1) | Reform UK: 8% (+1) | Via Opinium. by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 4 points 1 year ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 28.0% 199
LAB ๐ŸŒน 43.0% 365
LD ๐Ÿ”ถ 9.0% 28
REFUK โžก๏ธ 8.0% 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 6.0% 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 3% 33
PC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 44.7% 375 28.0% 9 213 -204 172
LAB ๐ŸŒน 33.0% 198 43.0% 233 0 +233 430
LIB ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.8% 8 9% 8 0 +8 16
Reform โžก๏ธ 2.1% 0 8% 0 0 +0 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4.0% 48 3.0% 0 38 -38 10
PlaidC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other โฌœ๏ธ 1.1% 0 2.5% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire โฌœ๏ธ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
28% 31% 3% 1% 3% 31%

Don't believe the Scots numbers for a second in this poll; and they are having a real impact on the EC seat numbers.

13
Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 43% (-1) | Conservatives: 28% (+3) | Lib Dems: 9% (n/c) | SNP: 3% (n/c) | Green: 6% (-1) | Reform UK: 8% (+1) | Via Opinium. (feddit.uk)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
1 comments fedilink

๐Ÿšจ Latest poll for @ObserverUK. Labour lead at 15 points.

Labour: 43% (-1)

Conservatives: 28% (+3)

Lib Dems: 9% (n/c)

SNP: 3% (n/c)

Green: 6% (-1)

Reform UK: 8% (+1)

(Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week)

Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 51% (+3) | CON: 25% (-1) | LDEM: 8% (-) | SNP 3% (-1) | REF: 5% (-2) | GRN: 5% (-) | Via Omnisis by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 3 points 1 year ago

Those poor LibDems though...

20
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 51% (+3) | CON: 25% (-1) | LDEM: 8% (-) | SNP 3% (-1) | REF: 5% (-2) | GRN: 5% (-) | Via Omnisis (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
18 comments fedilink

Westminster voting intention:

๐Ÿ”ด Lab 51% (+3)

๐Ÿ”ต Con 25% (-1)

๐ŸŸ  LD 8% (NC)

๐ŸŸก SNP 3% (-1)

โšช Ref 5% (-2)

๐ŸŸข Green 5% (NC)

via @Omnisis , 06 - 07 Jul

Busy day for polling, and another big but increasing lead for Labour

8
Westminister Voting Intention: LAB: 47% (+1) | CON: 22% (-2) | LDM: 9% (-1) | REF: 9% (+1) | GRN: 7% (=) | SNP: 3% (=) Via YouGov (twitter.com)
submitted 1 year ago by that_ginger_one@feddit.uk to c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
3 comments fedilink

Westminister Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+1)

CON: 22% (-2)

LDM: 9% (-1)

REF: 9% (+1)

GRN: 7% (=)

SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov , On 5-6 July, Changes w/ 27-27 June.

Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland): SNP 35% (-2) | Labour 32% (+4) | Conservative 21% (+1) | Lib Dem 7% (-2) | Green 2% (-1) | Reform 2% (-1) | Other 1% (+1) via Redfield & Winton. by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
SNP 35.0% 18
LAB 32.0% 29
CON 21.0% 7
LD 7.0% 5
REFUK 2.0% 0
Green 2.0% 0

Turns out I'm an idiot and Flavible do let you select Scotland Only, different story from them and the others.

PrincipleFish & ElectionPolling.co.uk

Westminster Voting Intention: Con 25% (+1) | Lab 48% (+1) | Lib Dem 10% (-2) | Other 17% (+1) by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 8 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 25.0% 132
LAB 48.0% 403
LD 10.0% 36
REFUK 5.0% 0
Green 5.0% 1
SNP 4% 53
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64
LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495
LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15
Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47%
  • This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers

PrincipleFish

  • Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:

NEW: Labour ahead by 19 points. by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 5 points 1 year ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 27.0% 164
LAB 46.0% 391
LD 11.0% 37
REFUK 6.0% 0
Green 5.0% 1
SNP 3% 32
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 27.0% 0 270 -260 115
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 271 0 +271 469
LIB 11.8% 8 11% 9 0 +9 17
Reform 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 21 -21 27
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18
Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-3) | Lab 47% (+1) | Lib Dem 12% (+2) | Reform 7% (+2) | SNP 4% (-) | Green 4% (-2) Via Deltapoll by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 3 points 1 year ago

We need a 'Canada 1993'

Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-3) | Lab 47% (+1) | Lib Dem 12% (+2) | Reform 7% (+2) | SNP 4% (-) | Green 4% (-2) Via Deltapoll by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 3 points 1 year ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 24.0% 111
LAB 47.0% 409
LD 12.0% 52
REFUK 7.0% 0
Green 4.0% 1
SNP 4% 52
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 24.0% 0 305 -305 70
LAB 33.0% 198 47.0% 305 0 +305 503
LIB 11.8% 8 12% 8 0 +14 22
Reform 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 4% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.7% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

More evidence the floor is falling out for CON (again...for now)

Westminster voting intention: Labour leads by 20%; Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 5 points 1 year ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 26.0% 149
LAB 46.0% 398
LD 12.0% 46
REFUK 7.0% 0
Green 6.0% 1
SNP 3% 32
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 26.0% 0 270 -270 105
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 271 0 +271 469
LIB 11.8% 8 12% 8 0 +14 22
Reform 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.7% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

EC is hard without seperate Scotland figures, 3% is lower than it automatically give them. and the poll numbers rounded add up to 100.5 so even more screwy

Westminster voting intention: Labour leads by 19%; Deltapoll Poll by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 27.0% 159
LAB 46.0% 380
LD 10.0% 32
REFUK 5.0% 0
Green 6.0% 1
SNP 4% 53*
PC 0.5% 3

*Big disbelief ๐Ÿคจ

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 27.0% 0 257 -257 118
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 263 0 +263 461
LIB 11.8% 8 10.0% 8 0 +8 16
Reform 2.1% 0 5.0% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 6.0% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 4.0% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.8% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 1.8% 1 0 +1 1*
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

*This is Claire Wright winning as an Independent in East Devon

Tobias Ellwood U-turns on decision to abstain on Partygate vote after hearing messages from LBC listeners by that_ginger_one in c/uk_politics@feddit.uk
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 4 points 1 year ago

I partly posted this because of how easy it was for Sangita to back him into a corner when he tried to do the ol' "I'm very busy and important on defence stuff so won't be at the vote" and he has just enough self awareness to take the hit and change his mind rather than do a Govey.

But also it shows the shitshow tory MPs still have to deal with in the background because their membership still love a bit of Boris and can't acept he isn't a (national)vote winner anymore; they don't want to defend the report, or they lose half their membership, but they defend Boris and....they lose the other half of the membership.

No wonder 10% of Tory MPs aren't standing next time around already, 18 months out form the actual election.

view more: next โ€บ

that_ginger_one

joined 1 year ago