53
NEW: Labour ahead by 19 points.
(twitter.com)
Any other leader would be 20 points ahead!
I was looking at some announcement by labour on social media, nearly all the comments are about how we need corbyn back to win... No irony.
"Corbyn" was a rallying cry for those of us who wanted change. For a brief moment back then there was some hope that Labour would step up with some progressive policies. Lots on the Left haven't got over it and still cling on to the idea of "Corbyn" in the absence of another credible Left leader. What's funny is that Corbyn's policies were always relatively centrist and social-democratic rather than socialist. But they look pretty extreme now compared to Starmer's Tory-aping.
I voted for Corbyn to be leader, twice, but even I can admit that credible is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
He lost twice, valiantly in 2017, and horrifically in 2019. That second loss often ignored or excuses by people who continue to support him.
Yes the establishment was against him, but that's the same for any Labour leader, let's not forget that Miliband was crucified over a bacon sandwich of all things.
The frustrating reality is that the UK, specifically middle England, are bootlickers. It takes them to feel considerable pain before they'll stop voting Tory, but they also need to feel safe in doing so. Corbyn wasn't seen as that, even if ironically his policies would have actually made them safer.
Agreed. But the actual numbers that voted for Corbyn-led Labour in 2019 are less catastrophic when stripped of the rhetoric of "landslides" (10.2 million votes for Labour and 13.9 for Tories). The first past the post system we have exaggerated a Tory win when a majority of voters actually voted against the Tories (57% of the vote).
It can't be ignored that the Labour Right and party machine were actively undermining Corbyn at the time. There were even party officials who told each other they'd prefer a Tory win rather than Corbyn as PM.
Also can't be ignored that Brexit had a distorting effect on the 2019 election and Corbyn handled it disgracefully.
The point is none of that matters because it was a given before hand.
FPTP is fucked, absolutely, the Tories will never change it, and Labour can only change it if they a) get elected, and b) get elected with it in the manifesto.
I'm not convinced that Labour will win. The UK has always been a one-party state with a few occasions of Labour being allowed to manage with virtually identical policies to the official state party. The economy is too unstable at the moment for the big corporations and dominant wealthy to allow Labour to govern. Starmer still hasn't done enough to satisfy his masters.
I think the mismanagement of the economy is exactly what will push big corporations to Labour. Why would they support the Conservatives who seem to be repeatedly doing it as badly as possible where Labour seem to be saying "no don't do that crazy thing"?
Remember Gordon Brown saying the word "prudent" and "Tory boom and bust" a lot in 1997. It worked.
Poll headlines like this miss so much information. Looking at this, it makes you think that the Tory vote has moved to Labour en-masse. When you look at the data tables the Tory vote has gone to 4 places.
- Labour
- Don't know / Won't Say
- Won't vote
- Reform UK
I think Don't Know and Won't Vote Tories are people who recognise how bad things have become, but can't bring themselves to vote Labour. I'm not convinced they'll stay where they are, and could fall back blue. The Won't Say are shy Tories without a doubt. All of those people are excluded from headline figures and that distorts the picture.
The Reform UK vote is dependent on candidates standing and those will definitely go blue as a fall back.
Labour's increase has a massive component of people who didn't vote in 2019. Some of that will be people who were too young to vote (and I wish polsters would separate that out), but it's too big to be totally explained that way. That support could end up being softer than polls suggest. They have to actually vote.
I think Labour will win, but I'm expecting it to be a lot closer fought than the polls suggest from their headline figures.
Who do you think stand a better chance? The Tories are currently imploding, there is no clear vision for the party and the different factions and backstabbing and wrestling for control. Sunak is weak, a caretaker PM with no authority or presence. They are tired, with nothing and nobody to rally around, and even the big corporations can see the writing on the wall.
Unfortunately a vote for Labour is essentially a vote for a different flavour of right-wing austerity politics. Sir Keir is doing his best to prove he's an establishment toady but it's not good enough. Big corporations will rally to the Tories in the run-up to the election. The British economy is in such a precarious state that that they can't risk anything other than close family running things.
I don't think that it matters who is in government now. We have a one-party state with two flavours.
I'd prefer to see the big parties broken up.
Who are Starmer's "masters"? Can you elaborate?
Rupert Murdoch and friends.
I don't think Mudoch is his "master" so much as the most influential voters in general elections are readers of the Murdoch owned papers.
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.0% | 164 |
| LAB | 46.0% | 391 |
| LD | 11.0% | 37 |
| REFUK | 6.0% | 0 |
| Green | 5.0% | 1 |
| SNP | 3% | 32 |
| PC | 0.5% | 3 |
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 375 | 27.0% | 0 | 270 | -260 | 115 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 198 | 46.0% | 271 | 0 | +271 | 469 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 8 | 11% | 9 | 0 | +9 | 17 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 3.5% | 0 | 21 | -21 | 27 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 2 | 0.4% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2 |
| Other | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| N.Ire | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
All I want is someone to tax the rich, is that so hard?
It is in the UK (and most western countries tbf).
115 too many Tory seats predicted
I'd vote labour for housing reform
If Rishi Sunak can beat Liz Truss in this I will be laughing.
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this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2023
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