39

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 25% (+1)

Lab 48% (+1)

Lib Dem 10% (-2)

Other 17% (+1)

Fieldwork: 29th June - 3rd July 2023 Sample: 1,507 GB adults (Changes from 23rd - 26th June 2023)

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 8 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 25.0% 132
LAB 48.0% 403
LD 10.0% 36
REFUK 5.0% 0
Green 5.0% 1
SNP 4% 53
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64
LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495
LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15
Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47%
  • This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers

PrincipleFish

  • Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:

[-] Syldon@feddit.uk 7 points 1 year ago

More would vote green if we had a PR voting system. The same goes for LD. The interesting part for me would be how protest votes either decline or rise. With PR every vote counts. People are happy to throw a protest vote in when it doesn't matter due to FPTP.

[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 2 points 1 year ago

Of polls recently, past week or so, this one has both Green and REF on less than the others I remember. 7% & 8% shuffling between them.

But those polls had Lab lower than 48% so could be a Deltapoll thing, weighting etc.

I will be interested in the true GE numbers they get, will REF get Con protest votes if the boomers still vote in the same numbers as usual (almost all REF support was 55+) and will Greens regress back to 2-3% because the plurality of their vote goes tactical...

It's a joke that FPTP turns all these parties into a joke.

[-] Syldon@feddit.uk 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

In FPTP people vote to block who they do not want, not what they desire. It is a very regressive system that does not promote good policies. There are no good arguments for FPTP anymore. We are enduring the most right wing government in our history. Worse still is that if the Tories did not win in 2019, the alternative would have been an ultra far left government.

[-] hellothere@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 year ago

So close to the SNP being the official opposition.

[-] that_ginger_one@feddit.uk 1 points 1 year ago

I'm actually super sceptical of the Scotland only numbers in the poll, I expect fewer SNP seats overall as a hunch. But the LibDem numbers they have for Scotland I flat out don't believe.

Polling error, chance, and/or weighting I don't know, but colour me sceptical.

this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2023
39 points (100.0% liked)

UK Politics

3070 readers
76 users here now

General Discussion for politics in the UK.
Please don't post to both !uk_politics@feddit.uk and !unitedkingdom@feddit.uk .
Pick the most appropriate, and put it there.

Posts should be related to UK-centric politics, and should be either a link to a reputable news source for news, or a text post on this community.

Opinion pieces are also allowed, provided they are not misleading/misrepresented/drivel, and have proper sources.

If you think "reputable news source" needs some definition, by all means start a meta thread. (These things should be publicly discussed)

Posts should be manually submitted, not by bot. Link titles should not be editorialised.

Disappointing comments will generally be left to fester in ratio, outright horrible comments will be removed.
Message the mods if you feel something really should be removed, or if a user seems to have a pattern of awful comments.

!ukpolitics@lemm.ee appears to have vanished! We can still see cached content from this link, but goodbye I guess! :'(

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS