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submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

If the polling is this wacky, why bother publishing it at all?

Over the weekend, ABC and the Washington Post published the results of a poll that made both operations look like its results were the product of a month-long exercise with a Magic 8-Ball. The way you know it was an embarrassment is the Post story about the poll began by telling us all we should probably ignore it completely.

The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.

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[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 188 points 1 year ago

It was done entirely by phone. What person under, say, 60 answers an unknown call on their phone at this point? And if they left a voicemail to call them back, who would trust it? Basically, they're getting extremely gullible people (i.e. mostly Trump voters) to respond to the poll.

I think the only way you can do successful polling at this point is focus groups with carefully selected demographics, and I would even be dubious there.

[-] MetalJewSolid@sopuli.xyz 35 points 1 year ago

I participated in a few polls in 2020 and…yeah. I would pick them up because I was waiting for important calls. Why tf else would I pick up. I still get these calls sometimes, usually while waiting for a call back for a job.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 33 points 1 year ago

Even if I did pick up the phone, which I doubt I would, I would think it was a scam.

[-] homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world 13 points 1 year ago

You guys are answering the unknown caller? Wow.

Why? Like, don’t.

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[-] ShunkW@lemmy.world 17 points 1 year ago

I was waiting to hear back about a job then and answered a poll call about gambling. I very, very rarely gamble. And when I do it's like $50 on blackjack or something cuz my friends want to go to the casino here. That was a fun call cuz my answers were like "never", *rarely", "no". Lol

Dunno why I felt the need to share. I'm still drunk from my friends birthday party last night I think lol

[-] squiblet@kbin.social 9 points 1 year ago

What if it was the employer calling to see if you gamble?

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[-] FuglyDuck@lemmy.world 19 points 1 year ago

It should also be said that polls are only responded to by people who a) have the time, and b) have something to say.

B alone is enough to make the respondents select for far more extreme than the average person. A also selects for… people who’ve got nothing else going on.

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[-] RockyC@lemm.ee 102 points 1 year ago

Shrooms have nothing to do with mass delusions. In fact, they may help cure them.

[-] treefrog@lemm.ee 41 points 1 year ago

Yeah, a really stupid headline by someone who doesn't understand mushrooms.

Probably ate a few grams at a party one time and had a panic attack.

[-] fruitleatherpostcard@lemm.ee 15 points 1 year ago

The more relevant drug is probably “huffing sister’s farts while engaging in incest in back woods like perfect GOP voter”

[-] llama@midwest.social 10 points 1 year ago

"You'd have to be on jenkem to believe THIS"

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[-] homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world 10 points 1 year ago

“You’d have to be out of your goddamned mind” got poo-poohed by the editorbot.

[-] aircooledJenkins@lemmy.world 72 points 1 year ago

Underestimating this discarded foreskin is what got us here in the first place.

Don't get complacent.

[-] PostmodernPythia@lemmy.world 68 points 1 year ago

This is deeply insulting to mushroom users, particularly given that people tend to be more empathetic because of those experiences, not less.

[-] khepri@lemmy.world 26 points 1 year ago

Shrooms specifically were a weird choice for the headline for sure. But it's just another variation on "drugs make you stupid and only teetotallers have an accurate perception of the world". It's really no less offensive than if they'd gone with "only a woman would believe..." or "you'd have to be a middle-school dropout to believe...". Like why? Why target some random group and call them out as idiots incapable of seeing what's right in front of their faces, when it has absolutely 0 to do with the content of the article? You'd have to be on PCP to believe this is a good way to write a headline :D

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[-] baked_tea@lemmy.world 60 points 1 year ago

Who the hell thought this headline idea is good wtf

[-] squiblet@kbin.social 37 points 1 year ago

It's kind of slanderous to mushrooms

[-] teft@startrek.website 10 points 1 year ago

Libelous. Slander is spoken. Libel is written.

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[-] theskyisfalling@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 points 1 year ago

People that haven't ever actually done any drugs before.

[-] assassin_aragorn@lemmy.world 57 points 1 year ago

Don't get complacent. That's the most important takeaway. We need to not only beat Republicans, but to give them massive losses. We want them to lose by double digit margins so they realize fascism has no place in the US, and MAGA can ma-get the fuck out of here.

I'm really curious to read more about the poll itself later, just with how unusual this is. What in the methodology screwed it up? Or do they just have an incredibly wide confidence interval?

It's also worth remembering I think, polling was very wrong in the midterms. They suggested at best that Republicans would win by a little bit, and at worst the "red tidal wave". And we know now it was a trickle, that they can't even claim as a total victory. Dems gained a Senate seat, and a lot of important state government positions in swing states.

There's a few causes for this mismatch I believe:

  • There's a lot of shitty Republicans pollsters these days that provide a lot of low quality data.

  • Analysts overcorrected their models after 2020 and it undercounts Democrats.

  • The huge backlash for overturning Roe isn't being captured in polls for some reason. Abortion continues to be a huge issue that's benefitting Democrats. The economy and inflation were thought to be the largest drivers for the midterms, but if they were, people saw Democrats as the solution for that.

[-] CileTheSane@lemmy.ca 9 points 1 year ago

There’s a few causes for this mismatch I believe:

Also keep in mind the sampling bias of only including people willing to take part in polls.

Unknown number? Stranger knocking at my door? I'm not answering.

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[-] phoneymouse@lemmy.world 52 points 1 year ago

Shrooms make you more perceptive, not less.

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[-] tsonfeir@lemm.ee 49 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I just want to make it clear to everyone that being on mushrooms would not in any way make you think that. In fact, it’s pretty stupid to think that any drugs would do that. Anyone who believes in Trump probably needs some drugs

[-] MagicShel@programming.dev 11 points 1 year ago

All the drugs. They need them all.

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[-] gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works 31 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Putting aside a LOT of other issues, the reason we’re seeing more polls that are very clearly nonsense is twofold:

  • spam calls have proliferated to an absolutely absurd degree, to the extent that most people refuse to pick up the phone unless it’s a known contact - and even that’s not necessarily a sure bet, because caller id can be trivially spoofed.
  • the mainstream media “outrage narrative”, which drives engagement/addictive consumer behavior/ad views - it behooves media networks who sell ads to present as many situations as possible as a toss-up, regardless of whether or not that’s an accurate representation, simply in the interest of profit.
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[-] MiikCheque@lemmy.world 24 points 1 year ago

why mushrooms and not opioids? or crack?

Mushrooms don't deserve this. They've proven beneficial and healthy in defeating depression, properly coping with trauma, cognitive decline, etc. This negatively associates mushrooms with idiocy and it's irresponsible and unwarranted.

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[-] Motavader@lemmy.world 20 points 1 year ago

I don't disagree, but those young voters still have to show up to vote or the result is the same. They didn't show up in the last election and my state anded up with a Republican supermajority.

[-] n2burns@lemmy.ca 15 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)
[-] Motavader@lemmy.world 14 points 1 year ago

That's encouraging, and also discouraging since it wasn't enough

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[-] marionberrycore 19 points 1 year ago

Don't insult mushrooms like this, lmao, what did they ever do to hurt you?

[-] quadropiss@lemmy.world 19 points 1 year ago

Love the casual stigma around drugs that aren't alcohol or tobacco

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[-] coffee_poops@sh.itjust.works 14 points 1 year ago

Polling is vote manipulative.

[-] Frog-Brawler@kbin.social 11 points 1 year ago

I have absolutely no intention of voting for Trump, but if you ask me on a poll about it, I might tell the pollster that I plan to vote for Trump. I don’t want people getting too comfortable with an assumed outcome ever again.

[-] LongPigFlavor@lemmy.world 11 points 1 year ago

Mid 20s gen z here. I'll be sure to vote for Biden. All in all he's pretty alright in my book. Sure things could be better, but that's going to take a bit more time, hopefully his successors will be better.

[-] CileTheSane@lemmy.ca 11 points 1 year ago

that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat.

Jfc the US is such a dumpster fire.

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[-] OldWoodFrame@lemm.ee 10 points 1 year ago

Good for them for publishing an outlier poll while framing it appropriately. It happens, and releasing anyway shows integrity.

[-] Powerpoint@lemmy.ca 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

They publish it to try and suppress voters to make them feel like there's no chance. Then when they lose they can claim election fraud because the bogus polling had them winning. It's a common tactic Conservatives use now to suppress votes. People need to show up no matter what the polling or news is saying.

[-] snausagesinablanket@lemmy.world 10 points 1 year ago

Don't knock mushrooms. They actually help you clear your mind and make good decisions.

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this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2023
608 points (100.0% liked)

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