The Federal Reserve now projects -3.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025. The 2008 recession was -2.6%, and covid was -2.2, for comparison.
That... Doesn't seem good if I'm being totally honest
-3.7% so far.
Consider this too...Q1 ended on March 31st. They are predicting that drop before all this tariff shit got started.
Hell, Biden was president for 20 of the 90 days in that quarter.
So you're saying it's Bidens fault! /s
Do you have a source? Closest of what I can find is GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow . But it is neither an official estimate nor from the federal reserve.
That is the federal reserve. It's composed of 12 district banks and that's one of them.
All we need now is a massive man made natural disaster to strike to make it another great depression. Luckily there isn't any terrible climate related issue that's on the verge of causing a catastrophe or anything.
That, and good thing there isn't a new pandemic brewing in birds and livestock.
Even if Trump removes every tariff a recession is almost certainly coming. Short to longer term planning, hiring, building, etc will certainly slow down and that kind of things is widespread. People lose jobs, people don't get hired, people choose not to start a business or invest money in the USA, etc.
The MAGA Nazis are fully embracing AI, and full automation is on its way. All the tech exists right now to fully automate every fast food outlet in America. The could have the supplies stored in robotic warehouses, robotically loaded into self-driving trucks, unloaded into the restaurants robotically, prepared robotically, and delivered to the customer, who ordered it on an app or kiosk. All without a single human touching it anywhere along the way.
Corporations will become wildly profitable with greatly reduced cost of labor and related labor issues (HR, benefits, discrimination, etc), but the additional result will be the loss of millions of entry level and unskilled jobs. These are the jobs where young people learn how to exist in the workplace, where households can have a second income, where people can become managers and make decent livings, etc. And that is only one industry. Every single industry will be impacted by automation and AI, with an enormous net loss of jobs, leading to a permanent unemployment rate in the double digits, possibly as high as 30-40%, or even higher. The impact on the government and our economy of the loss of income tax revenue from those lost jobs is a whole other conversation altogether.
What will happen to all those unemployed people? There seems to be only two solutions: Universal Basic Income, or reducing the population by the permanent unemployment rate. It's pretty predictable which solution each party would choose, and also pretty predictable how they would choose to accomplish their solution.
Not to forget the ability to let middle management go when there are no workers to be managed as well as the people for low level optimization and planning.
This is a major thing and the reactions are unfortunately downvotes.
UBI is never going to come to the united states. Whats reasonably to going to happen is an uprising and the brutal suppression of it by the police state a la Tianenmen square style or even worse. US have done this against people of color multiple times in its history. This time others will join as well.
Not long until MAGAs call the stock market woke.
Alternate TRUTH market incoming
They already had indexes which avoided 'dei' companies.... Don't ask me how I know..
Trump is gonna try his best to make the best depression ever.
He heard "great depression" and took it as a challenge
Yuge Depression. Like sinkhole levels.
“great depression”
Well... at least we know now what he meant by make America "great" again.
The Kennedy's made their fortune shorting the US economy during the Great depression.
Everything Trump has done has been calculated. I'd be willing to bet my left testicle that his gambling most of his fortune on heavily leverages shorts. He's trying to create the greatest possible depression because that will make him the most amount of money.
He knows exactly when he will cut his bullshit so he will settle his short right before making the announcement. Then with all the money he essentially stole from the population he will then buy up large chunks of the economy (and so will his buddies).
Once capital is even more heavily controlled by the upper classes the only recourse left will be violent revolution. All speculation. But that's what I would be doing if I was trump trying to install a true autocracy.
60% chance of recession, 40% chance of a depression. “The Greatest Depression”
It's 100% they are just too scared to say that
You can't say anything is 100% with a chaotic and erratic president. There's always a chance that Trump will undo everything next week and things will stabilise for a short while. That chance might be very low, but it effectively invalidates 100% prediction.
I'm afraid you're wrong here actually. Being arbitrary and mercurial means no one will risk investing in the US, as policies may be created or undone at any moment. The only way this goes away is simply that he goes away. The risk is what is creating the certainty here.
When we are almost all living in shacks with nothing left MAGA will be telling us we are better off.
"I'm so glad things are going back to the way they should be!" -my hyper-republican boomer coworker, this afternoon
"Jesus lived in poverty and he did alright." - A (thankfully former) coworker who disagreed with my assertion that minimum wage should be livable.
Jesus was also murdered by his government, Ian! That's not what I'd call alright!
The people are just garbage. The worst kind of ignorant shit that plagues this country.
You gotta remember this was DECADES of conditioning. These people have been primed for this from birth. For this moment in time, when they could gleefully collapse anything positive remaining about being American.
How was Thursday and Friday not a recession? I lost > 10% of my 401k in 2 days.
It took 4 years to get to where it was since I stopped contributing right after the 2020 panic. 4 years of happily let my money do what it should, BAM wiped out in 2 fucking days.
I’ve Lost 15% since this shitshow of president started fucking with things.
God this is bleak.
I'm not even in the US. This is a global recession.
"[Consumers] are not even going to the grocery store and paying more for vegetables because there's none available from Mexico, or going to Whole Foods, for example, and finding the big sections of fresh fruit are being shut down. They haven't really felt the full impact [yet], and they're already saying something isn't right," Bethune says.
It sounds like shit is going to get real, really quick. As in next week?
Trump isn't going to back down either - good or bad he always just doubles down. If Mexican producers stop selling to the US he's just going to go to war right?
As an aside, I had been wondering what the US gov is going to do with all that tariff revenue... but now it seems kinda clear that consumers will be buying a lot less stuff, so there will be less income tax revenue anyway.
Maybe that's the plan? Start a trade war that will inevitably lead to a real war? It sets a lot more precedent for the lean on all of the marshal law type powers he's chasing after.
The blood is on gop hands and any billionaires backing him
And the people who voted for him. And the people that didn't vote.
If they say 60% odds when it's obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?
The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.
But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market's volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.
Even if he would reverse the tariffs, the rest of the world is tired of this shit! The US showed that they are no reliable partner and always 4 years away from a possible circus.
I'd love to see donvict, fElon, Lutnick, Thiel, Vance and especially Navarro forced to live in poverty for a while.
Maybe I am stupid but I feel like things like this will be looked at as silly in the future because clearly we have already hit the recession. The only question that we have left at this point is if it will evolve into a full blown depression.
In case you haven't seen it there has been blood all over the place for years
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