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[-] perestroika@lemm.ee 44 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

A full-scale invasion of Syria by Turkey, without any political adjustments to the situation, would mean Turkish troops seizing land currently co-held (together with the AANES / SDF) by American troops. Without coordination, Turkish drone and artillery strikes would land near US troops, which would call in reinforcements to remove the drones and artillery.

Needless to say, one NATO ally going at territory held by another is a pretty bad idea.

So, in some parts of Syria, proceeding with their plan requires a US president - and most likely not Biden - to give them the green light and withdraw US special forces from SDF land. Basically, it requires the US to screw its allies in the fight against the Islamic State. Which would not be out of character for Trump, since Kurds cannot "pay him for protection". The protection was based on principles (the Autonomous Administration of North-Eastern Syria was the only player in the region that tried sticking to democracy and human rights) and a common enemy (ISIS).

I hope all of this doesn't happen, but if I were the Kurds, I'd be keeping drone batteries charged and knocking on every diplomatic door for assistance.

In case of things hitting the fan, it might be useful to remember a link to the Kurdistan Red Crescent - Heyva Sor a Kurdistanê. (They can't supply drone batteries, but deliver medical and humanitarian aid to the region.)

[-] Skua@kbin.earth 32 points 2 months ago

Which would not be out of character for Trump, since Kurds cannot "pay him for protection".

It's not just in character for Trump, it's something he has already done. He abandoned the Kurds in 2019 when Turkiye launched an offensive against them

[-] jonne@infosec.pub 18 points 2 months ago

They're going to co-ordinate with the Americans. Erdogan is going to ask Trump "can I go kill some Kurds on Syria", and Trump will go "sure". That's what happened last time.

[-] Saleh@feddit.org 4 points 2 months ago

Basically, it requires the US to screw its allies in the fight against the Islamic State. Which would not be out of character for Trump, since Kurds cannot “pay him for protection”. The protection was based on principles (the Autonomous Administration of North-Eastern Syria was the only player in the region that tried sticking to democracy and human rights) and a common enemy (ISIS).

The US using and abandoning Kurdish people is a repeated pattern long since before Trump. Heck, the US helped Saddam Hussein massacre thousands of Kurdish people in Iraq in the deadliest nerve gas attack in recorded history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_massacre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

Also the DAANES you mention as "trying to stick to democracy and human rights" runs torture camps and mass executions and the US helps funnel new people into them.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/04/syria-mass-death-torture-and-other-violations-against-people-detained-in-aftermath-of-islamic-state-defeat-new-report/

[-] perestroika@lemm.ee 3 points 2 months ago

Thanks for pointing that out.

Until this report, it was my impression that they tried sticking to democracy and human rights - but had a problem with recruiting underage people, which they admitted and dealt with.

This report is new to me, so I think it might be new to others - I recommend it.

Tbh this is precisely how I expect things to play out over the next couple months. And I fucking hate it.

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

Biden hasn't proved to be an ally either. He might not support Turkey but he isn't going to allow US troops to return fire. It will be like the UN Outposts Israel just goes around.

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[-] phoneymouse@lemmy.world 41 points 2 months ago

Watch the US abandon them too, after basically using them to squash ISIS. A concern though, is Turkey won’t want to hold territory, so it’ll end up creating the same power vacuum that spawned ISIS after it drives the Kurds out. A better solution would be for the US to just broker a deal between all parties.

[-] guy@piefed.social 10 points 2 months ago

You sure about them not wanting to hold territory?
I can imagine the Turks keeping the "safety zone", not to annex as a part of Turkey, but keep subdued to make sure the Kurds don't try to come back

[-] CaptainBasculin@lemmy.ml 7 points 2 months ago

Turkey wants HTS to take full control of the Syria land so they don't have to deal with PKK's sidearm right next to their borders in the first place. This whole operation is made for that.

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago

Turkey would love to expand their borders. They already exist on a war footing because they insist on treating domestic Kurds like Native Americans were treated and sending military expeditions into northern Iraq and Syria. The only difference would be staying there.

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 33 points 2 months ago

Shock.

Surprise.

For those who don't know, Turkey hates the Kurdish people. Iraq and Iran are too powerful for them to go after the Kurds very well there. The SDF along the northern border of Syria is Kurdish and is unprotected. Expect no quarter by either side. The Turks will also kill civilians if they get into population centers. This enmity runs to the Ottoman Empire who also mistreated the Kurds in favor of the Turks. When Ataturk turned to focus on the Kurds after the Armenian Genocide the Kurds took up arms rather than be next.

The SDF previously relied on the stalemate of the war to not be bothered by NATO. But with that over and Trump returning (who gave the Turks the greenlight to occupy sections of Syria last time) it's obviously time for the Turks to go after the Kurds again. Because God forbid the Kurds actually get self determination and peace.

[-] febra@lemmy.world 23 points 2 months ago

The kurds have been one of the most betrayed people by the West. They were one of the only ones to put themselves directly in front of the ISIS hordes. Men and women fought and lost their lives to stop ISIS from spreading their reign of terror even further. The West promised in turn to help them gain their territorial autonomy. After defeating ISIS the Americans then pulled out of all of their promises to the Kurds, abandoning them, and are now actively supporting Turkey in destroying the kurdish autonomous region. What an utterly disgusting move on their part, and surely telling for all the movements looking to collaborate with them in the future.

[-] ours@lemmy.world 8 points 2 months ago

And that's after being abandoned after fighting Saddam Hussein as well.

[-] hark@lemmy.world 17 points 2 months ago

The main reason why turkey supported HTS is this right here. Watch as the country continues getting broken into many pieces and eaten up by these vultures.

[-] Roflmasterbigpimp@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago

Wait. I thought Turkey was happy about so many Syrian refugees leaving. And now they're following them to bring more war? WTF?

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 19 points 2 months ago

The Turks can always make room for killing more Kurds.

[-] x00z@lemmy.world 13 points 2 months ago

I have met more good Kurds than good Turks while I have met a lot more Turks.

[-] Saleh@feddit.org 5 points 2 months ago

Note that the SDF/PKK/YPG Kurds are not representative of Kurds in general. They are mix of various "secular" faction, some being marxist, some being just your run of the mill warlord. They have recently killed protestors in Aleppo and they run torture prisons and use mass executions as means to keep the people in their control "aligned".

They managed to get themselves a good reputation with leftists in western countries, who are sympathetic to the struggle of the Kurdish people, but liberation will not come from these groups.

[-] itslilith 15 points 2 months ago

I don't know where you getting this from, but Rojava is generally considered the most democratic faction in Syria. They're not marxists, they instead follow democratic confederalism (a form of libertarian socialism). As per Wikipedia:

While entertaining some foreign relations, the region is neither officially recognized as autonomous by the government of Syria, state, or other governments institutions except for the Catalan Parliament.[19][20][21] The AANES has widespread support for its universal democratic, sustainable, autonomous, pluralist, equal, and feminist policies in dialogues with other parties and organizations.[22][23][24][25] Northeastern Syria is polyethnic and home to sizeable ethnic Arab, Kurdish, and Assyrian populations, with smaller communities of ethnic Turkmen, Armenians, Circassians, and Yazidis.[26][27][28]

I'd say they're the best chance Syria and the Kurds have at liberation.

[-] robocall@lemmy.world 13 points 2 months ago

Yeah, Turkey has never liked the Kurds

[-] perestroika@lemm.ee 24 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Everyone in the region seems to fear the formation of a Kurdish state. :(

So much that Kurds can spend 24/7 assuring they only want autonomy within some provinces, and every neighour still has nightmares of an independent Kurdistan...

...which, to be fair, they should have got - when the Ottoman empire fell apart - but everyone kind of forgot them.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago

Less "forgot" and more "decided by European powers that it wasn't up to anyone non-white to be in charge." At least not in the British and French Mandate areas.

[-] small44@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

Hard to trust the kurdish rebel when they are supported by Israel and the US. My fear is that they will become another protection for Israel

[-] guy@piefed.social 5 points 2 months ago

Which is kinda weird since they're all NATO buddies with Turkey. Friend of a friend?

[-] curlywurly@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

Turkey seems like a pretty bad ally recently - Finland and Sweden being delayed joining because of their Kurd genocide obsession comes to mind

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[-] CaptainBasculin@lemmy.ml 6 points 2 months ago

More like never liked terrorist supporters.

Turkey's population consists of roughly %18 kurds, claiming Turkey doesnt like them would be an outrageous claim considering they are citizens of the country and their votes make a significant impact in the selection of the governing parties.

They have pushed the government enough to try out a peaceful resolution against the PKK, only for PKK to bomb trap civilian buildings while the peace negotiations were going on. After that whole ordeal, a significant amount of the Kurds in Turkey see PKK as a terrorist organization that does more harm than good.

SDF is pretty much a sidearm PKK located in Syria, and it's pretty understandable why Turkey doesn't want them right next to their border.

[-] perestroika@lemm.ee 11 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I am not the best person to characterize the situation, but...

...it seems that Turkish authorities have always felt very threatened by any ideas of Kurdish autonomy (even cultural autonomy). Domestically, they have been locked in a fight with PKK, that is true. But in recent times - since the civil war started in Syria - they have great difficulty telling PKK apart from YPG. One is an underground terrorist organization, the other is a uniformed military. But when the PKK does something, very often as a result - YPG get bombed.

On the brighter side, Turkey has had a president of partly Kurdish ancestors (Turgut Özal). But the darker side of the coin is: he died of poisoning right before he could negotiate for peace with the PKK.

I have a guess. When Turkey starts approaching peace with PKK, either PKK members commit an act of terror to break down negotiations, or Turkish special services kill their own negotiator. Because both organizations contain people who - tragically - think that peace would not be good for their business. Their business is war and they don't want it entirely stopped.

I hope I'm wrong - or that I have gradually become wrong as times have changed.

[-] OmegaLemmy@discuss.online 3 points 2 months ago

They are threatened, look at the Wikipedia page for the current Kurdish party, and then check the past parties and what they have been accused of

If anything is a plus, making 20% of the nation a direct enemy is never good so they have never gone beyond banning parties with plausible reasons, they have always been able to reform them back again and the Kurdish language has been preserved and culture deeply integrated.

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[-] barsoap@lemm.ee 3 points 2 months ago

Turkey’s population consists of roughly %18 kurds, claiming Turkey doesnt like them would be an outrageous claim

How can there be Kurds in Turkey if Kurds don't even exist? And this is not a thing of the past, school books denying an independent identity of Kurds were printed as recently as 2021.

Turks do happen to suck at acknowledging their genocides. The Armenian is often spoken about outside of Turkey, everyone always forgets the Kurds.

[-] CaptainBasculin@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 months ago

This is outright misinformation. Kurds are specifically mentioned in history classes as in "ethnic groups that lives in various regional areas of Turkey", I recall this from my college times, roughly 2016.

There is nowhere close to a genocide against Kurds considering the amount of Kurds that live there; however Turkey has every right to stop a extremist rebellion idea that would make it lose territory and distrupt the unity between its citizens.

[-] barsoap@lemm.ee 3 points 2 months ago

So you deny the existence of those newer school books? Do you deny that the Kurdish language was outlawed for a very long time which constitutes genocide on its own, do you deny the various forced relocations and massacres the Turkish army committed against Kurds before the PKK was even founded? Decades before?

You might have heard the term "Kurd", yes, but chances are you also learned stuff like "Kurdish is a Turkish dialect" (Kurdish is not even part of the same language family), "Mountain Turk", "Atatürk did nothing wrong", etc.

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[-] TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago

"Since the conflict began, more than 40,000 people have died, most of whom were Kurdish civilians.["

"Turkey has depopulated and burned down thousands of Kurdish villages and massacred Kurdish civilians in an attempt to root out PKK militants."

"The initial reason given by the PKK for this was the oppression of Kurds in Turkey.[81][82] At the time, the use of Kurdish language, dress, folklore, and names were banned in Kurdish-inhabited areas.[83] In an attempt to deny their existence, the Turkish government categorized Kurds as "Mountain Turks" during the 1930s and 1940s.[83][84][85] The words "Kurds", "Kurdistan", or "Kurdish" were officially banned by the Turkish government.[86] Following the military coup of 1980, the Kurdish language was officially prohibited in public and private life until 1991.[87] Many who spoke, published, or sang in Kurdish were arrested and imprisoned"

[-] Maggoty@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

The Kurds in Turkey are policed by the military, not allowed to speak their language, and largely forced to the bottom of society. They're treated worse than the Isrealis treat the Arabs who legally live in Israel proper. We've also seen what military reprisals look like in Turkey and Northern Iraq.

The Turks never wanted peace. They wanted Genocide but the Kurds armed themselves.

[-] TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago

I'll post the same thing the last time you tried covering up your government's history of ethnic cleansing.

"Since the conflict began, more than 40,000 people have died, most of whom were Kurdish civilians.["

"Turkey has depopulated and burned down thousands of Kurdish villages and massacred Kurdish civilians in an attempt to root out PKK militants."

"The initial reason given by the PKK for this was the oppression of Kurds in Turkey.[81][82] At the time, the use of Kurdish language, dress, folklore, and names were banned in Kurdish-inhabited areas.[83] In an attempt to deny their existence, the Turkish government categorized Kurds as "Mountain Turks" during the 1930s and 1940s.[83][84][85] The words "Kurds", "Kurdistan", or "Kurdish" were officially banned by the Turkish government.[86] Following the military coup of 1980, the Kurdish language was officially prohibited in public and private life until 1991.[87] Many who spoke, published, or sang in Kurdish were arrested and imprisoned"

This guy is just a rabid ethno nationalist.

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[-] Solumbran@lemmy.world 12 points 2 months ago

A new dictator takes the land, amazing

[-] Juigi@lemm.ee 8 points 2 months ago

War mongering Turkey what a shock

[-] ZombieMantis@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago

Oh, for fuck's sake-

[-] JeeBaiChow@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago

Nice truck. Hammond should take it to a McDonald's sometime.

[-] technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 2 months ago

Fash gonna fash.

[-] veganpizza69@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

One of the reasons I've been boycotting imports from Türkiye for years.

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this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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