They're by different writers, and I know on their podcast I have heard people disagree in the past about things like whether a polling difference is meaningful, so maybe they're just each calling it like they see it.
Yeah, I didn't check that. It makes sense but they still have editors. I'm not saying there's some conspiracy to keep Kamala down, but watch for this to coincidentally happen again.
Being up by 1.5% is huge. Biden being down by 1.4% caused him to drop out.
It's in the right direction, but Democrats need to overperform nationally to be in good shape in the electoral college. Big movement from where Biden was, but it needs to keep going. A Democrat down 1.4% is almost a sure loss, but a Democrat up 1.5% isn't a sure win.
Biden being down by 1.4% caused him to drop out.
And covid and not being able to string a sentence together and most of his advisors becoming doomers immediately after the debate.
The big thing here is that polls skew right. They have been for years. This is why Democrats have been winning again and again recently, by large margins. Young people don't participate in polls. We don't answer calls from numbers we don't know. I know I'm calling myself "young" as an elder millennial, but compared to people who answer every call, I am young. That's why polls skew right, then the election goes left. My generation and younger won't pick up the phone for numbers we don't recognize. We grew up in the tech world and know better. Boomers and GenX will pick up the phone and proudly proclaim their position. Recently polls have suggested that the right wing is ahead, yet they keep losing. Because they're losers, and I'm happy that my generation is blocking that bullshit. I hope the younger generations keep up with ending totalitarian rule and will continue the fight against psychopathy.
Generally yes, but no reason to get complacent. A large number of young people are also skewing right, particularly young men.
Also, the amount of young men for idolize people like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson is concerning, but nothing will be done to address it. Social media is just as bad for their appearance and mental health issues as IG beauty standards are for young women, ie mewing, etc.
Not only losers, they are weird
National polling averages are nice and all, but what's the situation in the critical swing states? Popular vote should be fairly meaningless unless either side is up but like 25 points.
Fairly promising, at least in relation to Biden v Trump numbers
AZ: mostly even GA: mostly even MI: mostly even, Harris with a lead depending on how much you trust Morning Consult's numbers MN: Harris leads NV: mostly even WI: mostly even, slight lead for Harris
If I'm remembering right, most of those had Trump leading prior to Biden dropping out
Yeah I think you’re right about these states polling differently following Biden’s withdrawal. Pretty sure I remember trump being ahead in at least 4 of that set.
Though there’s some concern around rigging the electoral votes https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/
So if polls do tend to swing right these days, which looks possible, this could all be really good news....
Polls are almost meaningless.
There's some value versus knowing nothing. But until October early voting actually begins, not worth obsessing over. To be fair, their forecast was still one of the better ones for that infamous election, dropping around 60-40 Clinton during election day (NYT was still 90-10). And I'm sure many things were learned from it, maybe even over-corrected, based on '20-22. I'll be following Nate's Silver Bulletin this year (he left 538 and took his algorithms).
Wouldn't the majority counting for president be nice
but one of them has the forward momentum
And the other one has media attention all day every day since 2015. Never underestimate pure media attention.
So Harris up by 1.5% is actually "tied", but trump up on Biden by 1.4% is "leads" (and explicitly different from "tied"!). No mention of margin of error in that paragraph.
I don't mind that. It bothers me when a paper-thin lead is reported as just a "lead" cuz it kills people's sense of urgency.
Cool. Let's make it 65/35.
One has momentum and a convention bump coming up. The other is OLD, tired and really WEIRD.
Super old, with an atrocious VP. Worst presidential ticket in my lifetime by far.
Same, which is sad because I was 18 when bush was president. But if take bush 1000X over trump.
Yeah, I couldn't stand Bush, but he was a way stronger candidate than trump.
So Harris up by 1.5% is actually "tied", but trump up on Biden by 1.4% is "leads"
Not sure this is what they are doing, but the republican advantage in the electoral college could explain the terminology here. With polls a dead heat, democrats are losing every time.
They didn't ask me and I'm sure as hell voting.
Fuck these Chrystal balls we're voting and we're winning
Margin of error might have been smaller before than it is now. Makes a ton of sense because the race has changed so rapidly.
National polls are not relevant to who wins the election for the Presidency.
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Poll poll poll yer boat
Gently down the streaaaam
Dang, five downvotes? Someone loves them some polls!
Nate Silver - is that you and four alts??
Nate Silver has similar numbers. I don’t have a great deal of faith in polls or poll aggregators, but both of those put together is a good sign.
538 is pure trash. Don’t boost their signal
Why do you say that? I thought they were one of the more credible sites.
I wouldn't say they are pure trash, but they have also lost all of the talent that made them great. Nate, Claire, The Whiz Kid Harry Enton. I stopped listening to the podcast when Claire left. I stopped reading the site when Nate left and took his model with him.
All the people who founded it left. Nate Silver, who originally built the company, doesn't trust the new leadership, their model, or their treatment of polls.
They're credible for simply reporting poll results but the election model seems to have some issues.
They get enhanced coverage every election year, get everything wrong, then brought in again 4 years later as experts.
Reminds me of the show Lost, where Sayid would plan a military style operation for the group. They’d all get captured because he was wrong, then have him plan the next military operation with immediate amnesia of how poorly he does at such things
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