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Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 3 months ago by KevonLooney@lemm.ee to c/politics@lemmy.world

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As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

That 1.5-percentage-point lead is within our average's uncertainty interval, which you can think of as a sort of margin of error for our polling averages.

It's a little weird that they say Harris is "tied" with trump, even though she's ahead by 1.5%. That seems like a big deal. Margin of error is important, but it's just factually true that Vice President Harris is up by an average of 1.5%.

I looked back at how 538 treated polls when trump was up by a similar amount:

https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-after-presidential-debate/story?id=111610497

In 538's national polling average, Trump now leads by 1.4 percentage points over Biden, while the two candidates were just about tied on June 27, the day of the debate.

So Harris up by 1.5% is actually "tied", but trump up on Biden by 1.4% is "leads" (and explicitly different from "tied"!). No mention of margin of error in that paragraph.

🤔🤔🤔

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[-] rayyy@lemmy.world 16 points 3 months ago

One has momentum and a convention bump coming up. The other is OLD, tired and really WEIRD.

[-] absentbird@lemm.ee 13 points 3 months ago

Super old, with an atrocious VP. Worst presidential ticket in my lifetime by far.

[-] P00ptart@lemmy.world 3 points 3 months ago

Same, which is sad because I was 18 when bush was president. But if take bush 1000X over trump.

[-] absentbird@lemm.ee 4 points 3 months ago

Yeah, I couldn't stand Bush, but he was a way stronger candidate than trump.

this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024

273 points (100.0% liked)

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