2026, timelines are hard to suss out though as this isn't starting up an entire new production line, it is beaucratically structuring a purchase of arms which already exist in great number in other logistics contexts, and even before the shells hit the frontline the military industrial message it sends is unmistakably immediate and final, the heavy industry of Europe has decisively turned against Russia.

Rheinmetal is now in the business of directly producing artillery shells of a NATO caliber to sell to Ukraine in order to blow up Russians, once that deal is inked, the financial relationships are set in motion and solidified... it sets the entire strategic context of this war, as when it comes to war all follows heavy industry and mass artillery production. Say whatever the hell you want into a microphone about who your allies are and how politically this or that conflict is going, what matters is who you give the heavy artillery too and in what number (figuratively, but also literally too that is my point...).

How quickly will these artillery shells reach the frontline? I don't know, but at this point if Russia has any greater territorial aims or if they even want to hold on to what they have taken from Ukraine they are playing a game of chicken with trying to accomplish it before the closing edge of this war is slammed shut by Ukraine simply having too much artillery for Russia to engage with even in skirmishes and not have concentrations of their forces spectacularly smashed to bits by retaliatory artillery.

You can't play around poking and prodding an enemy that has solid reserves of 155mm ammunition to lob back at your forces projecting into their territory and expect to be able to sustain that, the consequences are simply too devastating. It is like trying to eat a meal by stealing french fries from someone individually one at a time but every time you try to steal a french fry you roll a dice that if it turns up 6 you get smashed in the face with a baseball bat with zero warning. Ok so you tell me you are feeling reallllly lucky... it still isn't a strategy that is going to work, you either have to decisively go for all the french fries or quit trying to peck at them or you inveitably get your face smashed in.

To be honest Russia/Putin seems to have placed themselves into such a stupid position here I am not sure if they actually understand this... what I mean specifically is that they could rely on this kind of strategy only because Ukraine was previously being deprived of sufficient artillery guns and ammunition to stop it, up until recently I honestly thought this was mostly a propaganda position on Russia's part to pretend this strategy could keep working but I honestly think they might have bought their own bullshit because they have entered into a nose dive in this war that they really can't pull out of at a basic undeniable logistics level...

What does it matter if it takes 4 months, 6 months, 8 months for these artillery orders to start upping the artillery reserves Ukraine has? In my opinion it would only be relevant if there was some kind of real objective Russia was realistically rushing towards obtaining that they thought they could reach before that point happens... but I don't see any in sight, just more stupendously costly and embarassing losses to attrition and encirclement from Ukraine forces resisting and counter attacking.

There is huge difference in accuracy between a Russian and a western artillery cannon.

At least in 2022 it was commonly estimated that in order to hit a specific target, you need to shoot about ten times as many artillery rounds with a Russian cannon as you would with a western cannon.

Of course, if you don't have a specific target, the accuracy doesn't really matter. The Russian artillery rounds are very useful for carpet bombing a city, but not for any actual military use. And when you're comparing the efficiency of armed forces, actually only the military uses are relevant. For that use, you can use a multiplier of 10. 25 000 western shells have about the same battlefield impact as 250 000 Russian shells.

Then remember that each time you fire a shell, it causes wear and tear in the cannon. That means, the Russian cannons get ten times as much wear and tear as western cannons. Atop them being of a much lower quality. The Russia uses a lot of shells for obliterating Ukrainian cities. Ukraine does not do anything similar. That skews the numbers even more yet.

Just for this contact. There are other suppliers and likely other contracts with Rheinmetall.

Oh definitely, I have no idea how you get actually accurate figures for ratio of artillery shells fired Russia vs. Ukraine but I am sure Russia fires far more (you have to when on the offensive, but also Russia has a massive capacity) but consider the basic logic that if the disparity exists such as it is, that only makes a given increase in artillery availability at a logistical level for Ukraine that much more impactful.

In otherwords the larger apparent disparity in necessary volume of artillery input to achieve a certain degree of battlefield effect (per km of frontline) in favor of Ukraine, the more any increase in artillery supplies to Ukraine translates into a change of the status quo power balance. In this respect, the more Russia is outfiring Ukraine now the worse that makes the calculus look when the tables are more even.

This would be a different conversation if Russia wasn't gaining territory at such a costly rate and at such a slow rate.

On paper I am sure Russia has a dizzying numerical advantage but what does 10,000 155mm shells do for Ukraine vs 10,000 152mm shells for Russia? Russia gets FAR less for those 10,000 shells for a multitude of reasons so I don't know how to relevantly directly compare the numbers.