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this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2025
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Ukraine
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Oh definitely, I have no idea how you get actually accurate figures for ratio of artillery shells fired Russia vs. Ukraine but I am sure Russia fires far more (you have to when on the offensive, but also Russia has a massive capacity) but consider the basic logic that if the disparity exists such as it is, that only makes a given increase in artillery availability at a logistical level for Ukraine that much more impactful.
In otherwords the larger apparent disparity in necessary volume of artillery input to achieve a certain degree of battlefield effect (per km of frontline) in favor of Ukraine, the more any increase in artillery supplies to Ukraine translates into a change of the status quo power balance. In this respect, the more Russia is outfiring Ukraine now the worse that makes the calculus look when the tables are more even.
This would be a different conversation if Russia wasn't gaining territory at such a costly rate and at such a slow rate.
On paper I am sure Russia has a dizzying numerical advantage but what does 10,000 155mm shells do for Ukraine vs 10,000 152mm shells for Russia? Russia gets FAR less for those 10,000 shells for a multitude of reasons so I don't know how to relevantly directly compare the numbers.