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Where do I donate to help the asteroid?
Is there any way we can speed it up?
Let's point all our magnets towards the sky!
🧲🌠
Probably a carbonic asteroid rather than ferrous
No worries! We’re working on that, too!
Melting the ice caps shifts mass, and therefore, gravity, away from the largely unpopulated poles and nearer to where the people live.
But this problem will not solve itself with any one solution. We must also petition our government to act now to stage a mission to nudge the asteroid into earth’s orbit! With modern science, we can do this.
I believe in humanity’s power to defeat humanity!
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What's up with the school shooter mentality? You know that if you want to die you can just kill yourself and don't need to take bunch on innocent people with you?
A massive reduction of human life in earth would have insanely positive benefits for the future of human kind and life on earth.
Just quantifiable proveable net benefits.
Those facts are uncomfortable, but it would dead end a lot of much worse outcomes
This is a city killer, not a continent killer. Wishing for few hundred thousand innocent people to die is just pure evil - it has no effect on overpopulation.
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Y’all don’t have loved ones? Just kill like 2700 billionaires and the world is a better place already. Fun fact, all dear leaders are on the same list.
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Bro, Thanos quotes are so 2020
A large enough impulse could knock it onto an impact trajectory in 2028. "Large enough" would be absolutely gigantic though, and we have to catch up with it, making it quite impractical. It would be cheaper to just build some more multi-megaton nukes for the same effect.
Having seen Scott Manley's video on the topic, it seems well within the realm of possible.
That's for changing the trajectory of the 2032 encounter by a few thousand km, not changing the 2028 encounter by 8 million km. And if we're changing the 2032 encounter we can smack it as it goes by in 2028 instead of playing catch-up before then.
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This has been a good test of our planetary defense procedures, and will be an even better test on the off chance the probability resolves to 100%. I'm rooting for an impact trajectory, since we'd either get to see humanity's first real asteroid deflection or witness the largest asteroid impact in over a century. (Hopefully in the ocean or a sparsely populated area!)
And hopefully it can be highly rich in rare minerals, so that when the ashes of WW3 finally settle down, at least the future generations of humans or not-human sapient entities will at least get something good out of the whole ridiculous mess we're currently in lol
Unfortunately, at the speed they travel, an asteroid will be vaporised in the impact. Whatever rare earths there are will be scatter as a fine powder over a large area.
Unfortunately, I half expect that if we get a 100% chance, governments are going to see where it's going to land (sea/Africa) and decide it's not worth the spend/let's see what happens if we let it hit.
Really hope I'm wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith in humanity anymore.
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I hope it's cataclysmic
It's only a city-killer, but last I saw there were a few cities in the estimated impact area. Fortunately we'll get a better idea of whether it's going to hit in 2028. Plenty of time to launch a redirection mission or evacuate the danger zone.
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The problem is that countries east of the projected impact will say that a deflection attempt will be viewed as a nuclear attack. Shit will get messy real quick.
I don't subscribe to your death cult.
Don't threaten me with a good time
From the article
In a new update, the space agency has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to 3.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact — the highest probability of a collision yet.
IE - 3%.
3% events happen all of the time!
The article stresses that this probability has been going up over the past year or so, which is likely neither here nor there, but I can totally understand how it’s alarming in a post-COVID world.
Slightly more likely than rolling two sixes.
But mar el lago is not in the impact corridor
Statistics isn't my strong suit. What's the probability of the probability increasing given that it has been increasing over time? Should we project the future probability to include this growth?
Scott Manley said in his video that it would almost certainly increase right up to a point where it would (probably) drop to 0.
Imagine the asteroid position is going to be in a range 1 to 100. Earth will be at position 31 when passes. That's a 1% chance.
Now I tell you that it's actually a 10 to 90 range ( like they predict the asteroid a bit more precisely).
The chance is now 1 in 80 or 1.25% It went up!
Now I say I've got more info, the number is 30 to 70. The chance is 1/40, 2.5% time to panic, it's getting worse!
Next it's 40 to 70. That doesn't include 31. The chance just dropped to 0.
So the increase is showing a more accurate prediction still includes hitting earth, but at some point that prediction might show that it will miss.
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Good.
Up those numbers.
We're awful.
Hit Washington DC please.
first hit moscow and take an insane bounce and hit washington DC please. that's all I'm asking.
Bruh the DC metro area is statistically one of the most anti Trump places in the US. Let's root for it to hit Maralago instead.
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Don’t look up
is this the aliens going "welp they elected Trump again time to press the reset button"
This is the expected path the probability is going to take. Scott Manley made a great video on that.
Basically the area in which the asteroid is going to be includes the earth. When you shrink this area earth is going to take up more space, unless it left the cone. I.e. measurements increase the likelihood until they don't.
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Would asking for it to both hit the Earth and for me to be right below the impact zone be asking too much?
Unless you are a terrible person, yes.
If it falls on a joint meeting of Trump and Putin who once again decided to have a meeting to discuss Ukraine without Ukraine that should be fantastic, and not at all asking too much. Hopeful musk is hanging out with bezos and Netanyahu and Xi are talking too. Really not asking enough if you think about it
As if fascists and climate change wheren't enough. Here, have an asteroid!
What if it lands an the fascists and dust in the atmosphere cancels climate change for a couple of decades. Could that work?
How many people need to die before someone hits the Earth with a rock ?
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this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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