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Where do I donate to help the asteroid?
I don't subscribe to your death cult.
Don't threaten me with a good time
From the article
In a new update, the space agency has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to 3.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact — the highest probability of a collision yet.
IE - 3%.
3% events happen all of the time!
The article stresses that this probability has been going up over the past year or so, which is likely neither here nor there, but I can totally understand how it’s alarming in a post-COVID world.
Slightly more likely than rolling two sixes.
But mar el lago is not in the impact corridor
Statistics isn't my strong suit. What's the probability of the probability increasing given that it has been increasing over time? Should we project the future probability to include this growth?
Scott Manley said in his video that it would almost certainly increase right up to a point where it would (probably) drop to 0.
Imagine the asteroid position is going to be in a range 1 to 100. Earth will be at position 31 when passes. That's a 1% chance.
Now I tell you that it's actually a 10 to 90 range ( like they predict the asteroid a bit more precisely).
The chance is now 1 in 80 or 1.25% It went up!
Now I say I've got more info, the number is 30 to 70. The chance is 1/40, 2.5% time to panic, it's getting worse!
Next it's 40 to 70. That doesn't include 31. The chance just dropped to 0.
So the increase is showing a more accurate prediction still includes hitting earth, but at some point that prediction might show that it will miss.
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Good.
Up those numbers.
We're awful.
Hit Washington DC please.
first hit moscow and take an insane bounce and hit washington DC please. that's all I'm asking.
Bruh the DC metro area is statistically one of the most anti Trump places in the US. Let's root for it to hit Maralago instead.
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Don’t look up
is this the aliens going "welp they elected Trump again time to press the reset button"
This is the expected path the probability is going to take. Scott Manley made a great video on that.
Basically the area in which the asteroid is going to be includes the earth. When you shrink this area earth is going to take up more space, unless it left the cone. I.e. measurements increase the likelihood until they don't.
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Would asking for it to both hit the Earth and for me to be right below the impact zone be asking too much?
Unless you are a terrible person, yes.
If it falls on a joint meeting of Trump and Putin who once again decided to have a meeting to discuss Ukraine without Ukraine that should be fantastic, and not at all asking too much. Hopeful musk is hanging out with bezos and Netanyahu and Xi are talking too. Really not asking enough if you think about it
As if fascists and climate change wheren't enough. Here, have an asteroid!
What if it lands an the fascists and dust in the atmosphere cancels climate change for a couple of decades. Could that work?
How many people need to die before someone hits the Earth with a rock ?
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this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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