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this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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This has been a good test of our planetary defense procedures, and will be an even better test on the off chance the probability resolves to 100%. I'm rooting for an impact trajectory, since we'd either get to see humanity's first real asteroid deflection or witness the largest asteroid impact in over a century. (Hopefully in the ocean or a sparsely populated area!)
And hopefully it can be highly rich in rare minerals, so that when the ashes of WW3 finally settle down, at least the future generations of humans or not-human sapient entities will at least get something good out of the whole ridiculous mess we're currently in lol
Unfortunately, at the speed they travel, an asteroid will be vaporised in the impact. Whatever rare earths there are will be scatter as a fine powder over a large area.
Unfortunately, I half expect that if we get a 100% chance, governments are going to see where it's going to land (sea/Africa) and decide it's not worth the spend/let's see what happens if we let it hit.
Really hope I'm wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith in humanity anymore.
Chances are greater that it lands in the ocean somewhere.
I hope it's cataclysmic
It's only a city-killer, but last I saw there were a few cities in the estimated impact area. Fortunately we'll get a better idea of whether it's going to hit in 2028. Plenty of time to launch a redirection mission or evacuate the danger zone.
Not 2028, but 2032. It is guaranteed to miss in 2028, but could potentially impact us in 2032
Yeah, but it comes close enough in 2028 to get a good fix on its trajectory and to launch a mission to it.
I see what you're saying now, sorry. Yeah as it passes by we should be able to say with certainty when it actually will hit whether that is 2032 or 2432
The problem is that countries east of the projected impact will say that a deflection attempt will be viewed as a nuclear attack. Shit will get messy real quick.