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Alternative title: electric cars will dominate by the time it's too fucking late for it to matter.
Until a plethora of quality used EVs hit the secondary market, it absolutely won't dominate. Most people can never afford a new car or won't buy one new because of the instant depreciation. Currently if you're car shopping, the EV market is sparse. I should know because I was looking for a used one last year and the options sucked.
I’m in Canada so our EV incentives and infrastructure is extremely poor. I was looking at a second vehicle since my wife and I have shared one but we live somewhere with zero public transit and I can’t ride my dirtbike comfortably in -20 to do groceries (I tried).
All I could find were some Konas and Mach Es. I wasn’t opposed to either in theory but their prices were equivalent to brand new gas cars and these were 4-5 years old with 60-150k km on them…
It's still sparse but there are options now, I've finally switched to electric by getting a Peugeot e208 from 2020, didn't cost me anything when trading in my ford focus estate from late 2018, once accounting for some special tax stuff I benefit from and the government rebate.
Does it have as much space and range as a new model Y? Of course not, but it was also 37% of the cost and I cannot tell you how fucking happy I am zipping around in my small-ish electric car, it's perfect for the roads and cities I go in, never need to worry about range while doing normal living and I just did a multi-country trip in it with all my equipment and while I did wish for an extra 30min of highway speed before needing to plug, it was still totally fine. The Ford would start to fail when on the Belgian and French hilly highways, this one didn't peep despite the full load.
That started to happen in just the last year. Used 2022 Teslas are going for under $25k. A big one is car rental outfits like Hertz. They cycle out their cars every few years and they bought a bunch of Teslas that are now hitting the used market.
I hope so, but I honestly doubt it.
The cheapest EV here in W-EUR is still 30ish K, and government subsidies are ending this year. I drive a 50K EV mercedes but it's a company car. I could never afford one of my own. I assume 2/3rds of my compatrions to be in somewhat the same boat.
I might also just be fucking poor and underestimating by how much though.
The cheapest EV here in W-EUR is still 30ish K, and government subsidies are ending this year.
China has $5k EVs, it's not a technical problem causing EVs to all be expensive.
Poor or rich, people on the whole will choose the more affordable option.
Ehhh, (at least in the US) considering the cost of living and insurmountable debt so many young people get into these days due to lack of financial education… even a $20k car loan can still be out of the question for a median salary, assuming a decent budget split recommended by most financial advisors because hardly anyone has adequate savings or emergency funds. But yet so so many people in their 20s and 30s with tens of thousands of debt end up getting loans for $50-$60k cars. It takes a lot to afford a $30k car and there’s like… 2??? EV options anywhere near that price here. And while the used market continues to improve, there’s still just not enough options that make financial sense, especially as subsidies die down in many areas.
Don’t be silly just get more debt !
My 17 year old truck when it was new cost half of what electric vehicles cost. I will switch to electric eventually but this'll probably take around 25 years.
Are you accounting for inflation? 17 years ago is a while
Ignoring the math on inflation and maintenance and fuel ...all make this seem like a disingenuous comment.
It cost me 10k when I bought it used and the cheapest electric truck is well past 100k. My point still stands. EVs are way out my price range.
While you’re absolutely right about the sticker prices, after 17 years of use, an EV truck (had they existed that long) would probably have been cheaper to own.
I don’t think the future of EVs is even assured.
Manufacturers and governments are backing away self imposed fossil fuel deadlines. They are still an inferior solution, and offer nothing to the consumer a combustion engine vehicle doesn’t do better.
They need lower pricing, which is never going to happen, and they need cheap electricity. Which is also unlikely - not because of any technological challenges, but because the people than currently run these industries won’t give up profit just for the sake of saving the human race .
I like the idea of a hydrogen engine, when fuel is close to free, but they will never be allowed to be mass produced, because the world economy would collapse pretty quickly .
Sorry I’m rambling.
Electric motors are much more efficient than ICE and produce no emissions. That doesn't seem inferior to me. They require much less cooling, no exhaust, vastly less maintenance, and overall EV cars need about half the parts of ICE. Electricity prices will come down with more governments subsidized investments in renewables. Hydrogen in practical use is currently a joke because the fueling infrastructure doesn't exist and the energy required to convert natural gas to hydrogen is horribly inefficient.
The point is that it is not an argument of efficiency, nor is about which is best for the environment because those are not the factors that will the determine the winner in the next iteration of the car .
By your criteria, the bicycle is an infinitely better solution than either EV or ICE - they and don’t rely on government subsidised fuel.
The further point is about the entrenchment of the ICE vehicle within the global economy, which about to a near infinite force being applied to the success of EVs .
For the reasons you have given, EVs could be ubiquitous already. They could be sold much more cheaply, they they could already have slash demand for oil. But they haven’t. And that it for the reasons I have stated .
A bicycle is absolutely peak efficient transportation. They are just not as comfortable, safe, or as fast as what people are used to. Some car drivers are also disabled (and most are lazy), which eliminates bicycles entirely for them. Ebikes may also convince some to travel on 2 wheels, but the vast majority of able-bodied drivers will still opt for multi-ton, 4 wheel vehicles for safety, speed, comfort, and ease of hauling kids and cargo. Prices of new EV cars have dropped 15% in the last 2 years and used EVs have dropped 42% in just a year. EV prices will continue to drop as US lithium production increases. In recent years: US oil production has skyrocketed, keeping oil cheap and further slowing adoption. Add the protectionist tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs and its clear our inevitable EV future is getting sandbagged by those with vested interests.
this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2024
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Electric Vehicles
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