Good for you, but that's a meaningless statement from a home user perspective.

Windows 10 "going end of life" only means security updates will stop trickling in. Drivers will work, software will work. As far as your aunt Rita knows, nothing has changed on her laptop when 10 goes end of life, and if she tries to upgrade and can't for some reason, she'll just keep using what works indefinitely. The only time you may notice is if you get new hardware that for some reason doesn't support 10 anymore at which point the hardware incompatibility issue is gone.

People will move to 11 how people always move Windows versions: by buying a new PC with it preinstalled. Because that's how people interface with OSs in the real world. The only time normies go out of their way to change Windows versions is when the new version is generally perceived as replacing a crappy iteration, like the 8 to 10 jump or the Vista to 7 transition.

All of that is to say that it sucks for MS to actively use a subtle security downgrade as a motivator for people to update their hardware and software combo. Not because people will be pissed and move to Linux, but because they won't move anywhere and there will be more vulnerable systems out there. Most won't have any issues until they get new hardware, but it's still bad praxis from MS's position of stewardship of many millions of home computing devices.

Well, yeah, exactly. All the people showing up as Linux because they are just using the consolified Steam interface on their Decks aren't exactly renouncing Windows and vowing to install Arch on their desktops forevermore, they're just using the custom interface that came in the box.

I mean, see above for my estimate of how big that contribution is, discounting the effect of the rather unLinux-y experience of using the Deck.

Proton and Wine support help, although I genuinely would like to see more laptops shipping Linux by default more than I care about the Deck. I recently tried to move a laptop to Linux and the terrible support for custom hardware made it unfeasible. That machine is back on Windows now.

The underreported key to Linux on the Deck is that it's configured for the hardware out of the box. In a world where modular, standardized desktop computing is not mainstream outside techie circles, Linux's problem is that most normies on Windows aren't on a desktop PC with AMD gear, they're on some slightly but noticeably custom branded laptop still running its default Windows install.

And you are here, so... I rest my case?

You can search for the back-of-the-envelope calculation of what the Deck-less numbers are, but it comes down to a 0.4% increase, give or take. Noticeable, but not huge. And, crucially, about half the size of the Deck bump.

Everybody here.

I have literally not heard a single person in real life complain about it. I work in a tech field where people largely use Windows for work. Not a one. We talk about nerdy stuff all the time, it hasn't come up.

I genuinely don't think people around here get how much of a bubble this weird "OSs as sports teams" stuff is.

As for the impact of the Steam Deck, we can actually cross-reference to estimate it by looking at the GPU numbers. Of that Linux blob, the Deck should account for 0.8% of the total, so that leaves desktop Linux proper at 1.52%. The Deck launched in February 2022. The last survey before the Deck launched had Linux at 1.11%, so that gives you a 0.41% increase. That's not insiginificant, but... you know, it's still pretty small.