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this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2024
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I think Linux reached 0.8% in 2018 iirc.
It's definitely accelerated a bit in the last two years.
Alas, all it takes is for Microsoft to tone down the insanity before it will plateau again. So best hope for now is too increase it as much as possible by welcoming refugees before Windows 12 comes out. Maybe gain another percent or two.
The rise of Linux in this is absolutely driven by SteamOS and the Steam Deck, let's be honest here. This narrative of people escaping Windows because of W11 changes that pretty much only get reported here is... a bit of wishful thinking.
The Windows 11 TPM requirement means a lot of people with fine computers can't update from 10, and computer parts aren't as affordable as they were 5 years ago. When Windows 10 goes end of life it will be my sign to go back to daily driving Linux.
Good for you, but that's a meaningless statement from a home user perspective.
Windows 10 "going end of life" only means security updates will stop trickling in. Drivers will work, software will work. As far as your aunt Rita knows, nothing has changed on her laptop when 10 goes end of life, and if she tries to upgrade and can't for some reason, she'll just keep using what works indefinitely. The only time you may notice is if you get new hardware that for some reason doesn't support 10 anymore at which point the hardware incompatibility issue is gone.
People will move to 11 how people always move Windows versions: by buying a new PC with it preinstalled. Because that's how people interface with OSs in the real world. The only time normies go out of their way to change Windows versions is when the new version is generally perceived as replacing a crappy iteration, like the 8 to 10 jump or the Vista to 7 transition.
All of that is to say that it sucks for MS to actively use a subtle security downgrade as a motivator for people to update their hardware and software combo. Not because people will be pissed and move to Linux, but because they won't move anywhere and there will be more vulnerable systems out there. Most won't have any issues until they get new hardware, but it's still bad praxis from MS's position of stewardship of many millions of home computing devices.
Does it matter where it comes from though? Do you think regular folks are like: "i'm gonna play on my WINDOWS MACHINE"? They just use whatever came pre-installed.
Well, yeah, exactly. All the people showing up as Linux because they are just using the consolified Steam interface on their Decks aren't exactly renouncing Windows and vowing to install Arch on their desktops forevermore, they're just using the custom interface that came in the box.
Again, only one data point but you basically just described me exactly
Sure, but you're an outlier. All of us in this conversation are massive outliers. I mean, we're on Fedi alternatives to Reddit, for one. We're talking in a Linux Gaming subreddit of a niche derivative of Reddit.
It's not like we don't have numbers. We're the 0.8% of the market that has a Steam Deck, and from that you're part of the 0.4% of it that also migrated another computer for one reason or another. And that's out of Steam, which has about as many users, give or take, as the Nintendo Switch, not orders of magnitude more. We're a fraction of a fraction of a fraction.
I did because oft W10 / W11 changes
And you are here, so... I rest my case?
You can search for the back-of-the-envelope calculation of what the Deck-less numbers are, but it comes down to a 0.4% increase, give or take. Noticeable, but not huge. And, crucially, about half the size of the Deck bump.
Yeah wishful thinking but also a bit reassuring that this is then a meaningful if small shift. People are choosing Linux via steam decks or personally, and its been enabled via proton and wine rather than necessarily people fleeing win 11.
I do think win 11 changes contribute to people trying Linux more but I think it is Linux that is keeping people that is what has changed. I don't see some huge move to Linux though - just its growing faster as it supports gaming well and is increasingly easier to use and maintain (which has been a long trend). But win11 being increasingly anti user can't be a bad think for Linux long term.
I mean, see above for my estimate of how big that contribution is, discounting the effect of the rather unLinux-y experience of using the Deck.
Proton and Wine support help, although I genuinely would like to see more laptops shipping Linux by default more than I care about the Deck. I recently tried to move a laptop to Linux and the terrible support for custom hardware made it unfeasible. That machine is back on Windows now.
The underreported key to Linux on the Deck is that it's configured for the hardware out of the box. In a world where modular, standardized desktop computing is not mainstream outside techie circles, Linux's problem is that most normies on Windows aren't on a desktop PC with AMD gear, they're on some slightly but noticeably custom branded laptop still running its default Windows install.
Also people are terrified of the terminal. I think a lot of people who have been using CLI for years underestimate how intimidating it is for people who only use GUI desktops.
I hear this a lot, and... I'm not so sure.
I mean, for one with modern installers if you're at the stage where you're on the terminal as a basic user you are having to troubleshoot more problems than you should have and the issue isn't the terminal but the stuff that isn't working that lead you to need to use it.
But also... Windows has one of those, too. Two, actually. Every other troubleshooting page for Windows online has you open a command line and type some stuff up, when not messing with PowerShell. It's not that weird.
I find that Linux users and communities have a tendency to overestimate how much of the issue is "the terminal" or "the interface not looking like Windows". I don't think it's that big of a deal if the distro you're installing works first time out of the box. The problem is when it doesn't, because terminal or not, that's a dealbreaker for most people.
I'm thinking about my husband watching me use Mint. I am comfortable with the command line, I use Linux (and Powershell) professionally so I am quick to jump into the terminal to fix something. Everytime I do he complains that he could never do that.
There are still a few things you need to do in the terminal, like setting flatpak permissions - something many users will want to do - that would benefit from a graphical interface. Linux is almost as good as Windows or Mac in this regard but not quite all the way there.
Yeah, but that's you jumping into the terminal and formatting commands off the top of your head.
That's very rarely required. Most normies will go online looking for help, find the command to solve their issue and copy-paste it over, both on Windows and Linux. Most tutorials for normies will even include step by step instructions to open whichever command line and what to type.
But again, if you're at that point something else went wrong and you're already out of your depth. In most basic OS installs that should never happen, including most widely used Linux distros. That really isn't the barrier to any sort of mass adoption.
I can only speak for myself, but me getting a Steam Deck was step one in the process where eventually, about a year or so ago, I switched to Linux on my laptop, and I don't have a single regret.
I will never use Windows again when it's my choice.
There's been a sharp upswing of the Linux percentage in the last year or so which cannot be explained just by Steam. Steam's popularity definitely contributes to a continuous rise but it's usually a steady rise.
And it's not so far-fetched that people are growing dissatisfied with Windows. Everybody's been complaining about the ads and the AI.
Everybody here.
I have literally not heard a single person in real life complain about it. I work in a tech field where people largely use Windows for work. Not a one. We talk about nerdy stuff all the time, it hasn't come up.
I genuinely don't think people around here get how much of a bubble this weird "OSs as sports teams" stuff is.
As for the impact of the Steam Deck, we can actually cross-reference to estimate it by looking at the GPU numbers. Of that Linux blob, the Deck should account for 0.8% of the total, so that leaves desktop Linux proper at 1.52%. The Deck launched in February 2022. The last survey before the Deck launched had Linux at 1.11%, so that gives you a 0.41% increase. That's not insiginificant, but... you know, it's still pretty small.
It's in Microsoft's best interest right now to keep Linux slightly popular, because it helps them fight off antitrust cases