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this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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I'm still not worried for the same reason I haven't been worried this whole time about it.
Putin has children and grandchildren. It's rare that a dictator does not want a legacy and I'm guessing he doesn't want his descendants ruling over Vault 13.
Nah, this is Russia, they don't have vaults. They have metro stations and lines. It's different.
I don't read it that way. I think the previous "doctrine" stated that all nuclear weapons (including tactical) would only be used defensively against a nuclear attack, or if the country were in an imminent threat to existence.
This change means that if and when Ukraine step up their attacks inside Russian territory with conventional weapons made by western nuclear able nations, they are going to consider that attack to be made by a nuclear able nation.
I don't think that means they plan to start firing off strategic nukes against the west triggering a MAD scenario. That's not how I read it at all.
What he wants us to believe is that he's dusting off the tactical nuclear stockpile he has at his disposal, to be used against Ukraine with the justification that the attack counts as a strike from a nuclear able nation and as such their existence is threatened.
Now, here's the problem with this gambit. If Ukraine do step up their attacks and he doesn't do anything or worse they don't actually work, it's actually worse for him that he rattled this sabre and then didn't follow-up on the promise.
Anyway, that's how I'm reading it at any rate.
In my eye, a lot of the value of Ukraine is the land itself for farming and (for russia) shipping capability; MAD is the only situation i would expect nukes to hit the ground, and I imagine another oligarch would knife Putin in the back before it gets to that. Then again, the US just elected trump, so oligarchs seem to be fairly spineless.
fuck it, kill us all with nuclear fire, at least it's faster than slowly boiling to death from climate change.
Stop worrying and learn to love the bomb.
Duck and cover!
While I agree on the whole, tactical nuclear weapons are usually in the 300t equivalent range. This is going to go scorched earth to a distance of around 250m, with the worst of the radiation damage limited to around 1 mile. Not underplaying it, but in terms of an entire country it's not that much. I tried on my relatively small town/large village. Not even half in the radiation zone (Nukemap).
That's likely going to be able to entirely take out an enemy position with a single strike, or a medium village/very small town while really not overall damaging the country as a whole.
But, I don't think he'll do it. It is I think the move he is trying to telegraph to the world, but it carries far too much risk to actually do it.
If he does, he's assured of action by western nations. Honestly, I'm not even sure Trump (well I at least hope not) would try to downplay it. It would be a huge escalation and everyone, especially Russia knows it.
I'm less concerned about irradiation as I am about usable soil being evaporated, blown away, filled with debris, etc
I definitely agree. I don't think it'll happen, but I have very little faith in guardrails