[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 24 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

It appears they're now blacklisting user-agents with "android" in them, people are putting out revanced patches for different clients.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 6 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

You are being extremely disingenuous when you say that since you’re only counting household burglaries. And I’m sure you know it.

I'm literally commenting on how the person above me claims American firearms ownership makes "the act of “home invasion” fundamentally different in the UK and the US." by "turning “somebody stole my iPad” into “somebody stole my iPad and then shot me in the spine”." Household burglaries is the context of the conversation.

you would have us believe that only 108 of those happened in someone’s house?

No, I am claiming that ~108 incidents (could be 1 or more victims per) happen by a burglar's hands. You know that, you just said I'm being deceitful for limiting it to those parameters, and now you're lying about them.

the CDC doesn’t track all gun deaths

Correct, and I haven't cited CDC data. As I've said many times now, I've cited Gun Violence Archive's numbers, whose sole mission is to catalog as high of numbers as they can. Their 2016 combined homicide & suicide stats exceed your source's numbers at 38k. I've also been using the higher number of ~60k deaths & injuries from someone else's gun per year instead of ~45k combined homicides & suicides.

Because in a discussion of someone's claim of "essentially zero" risk of harm from someone in a home invasion, the actual risk is currently very close to the widely-agreed-upon, internationally-lambasted, domestic-politics-dominating risk of harm from another's gun. Or hey, we'll count what you purposefully do to yourself as well and say it's 2/3 of the way there.

I really don't understand how saying "home invasion isn't a boogeyman, being harmed from it is as likely as gun violence" has been interpreted as "you're saying gun violence is a boogeyman" other than everyone here taking the top comment at face value and losing all basic literacy when the circlejerk stops.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 6 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

You’re still more likely to be shot by someone, it’s just the “someone” might be you

Pardon me for not considering actions I have control over in a discussion on the likelihood of violence one doesn't have control over. And again, I'm citing larger numbers for gun violence victims than what they are citing incorrectly.

But it’ll never be one of your kids with one of your guns, will it buddy

At 1 in ~2000 odds (10 in 10,000 suicide rate, 50% firearms for ages 10-24), or literally the exact same odds that I'm saying a person should be prepared for based on their consequences, those are absolutely odds I would act to minimize if I lived with a minor or anyone suffering mental health issues.

Just here to point out that it'll never be your home, will it buddy?

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 5 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

you take as the given that individual gun violence is a likely threat in most of the country

I don't. As I said, poverty & organized crime is a driving factor in both burglaries & gun violence moreso than any other metric and heavily skews those statistics between localities. Many regions will have rates 3-4x that. I also feel like you're minimizing the part where it's 1 in ~~3300~~ 1990 per year, which applied over even just 50 years comes to ~~1.6%~~ 2.5% of people experiencing it in their lives. Hell, the total burglary number of ~~600,000~~ 900,000 is nearly thrice the rate of house fires in the US.

It would absolutely be inconsistent to cite gun violence stats as a cause of concern for the average person (2) (3) while dismissing being assaulted in a burglary, nevermind being burgled at all, as an essentially zero chance.

As an interesting point of reference, UK home break-ins occur at a rate of 578,000 yearly for a population with just 27.8 million households. That works out to 2% of households yearly being burgled, and per the first source over half of those occur while someone is present in the house (twice as often as happens in the US). Here's another source citing a 1.27% rate of domestic burglary for the year ending in June 2023, and that's vs the US rate of 0.728% (1.7-2.7 times higher). I can't find any sources for what percentage of these break-in lead to assaults on the occupants, but for even the more conservative number of 1.27% from earlier and 50% of those being occupied homes, a rate higher than 6.90% of those occupied burglaries leading to assault would place the odds of being assaulted in your home in the UK higher than in America. This article working off of 2020 ONS data cites that of the 64.1% of incidents where someone is home 46% were aware and saw their burglars, and of those 48% reported being threatened and 27% reported force or violence being used against them. Plugging that into the most recent rate of 1.27% being burgled, that comes out to a 1 in 989 chance yearly of being a victim of violent crime by burglars in your own house, double that of the US.

I wonder what's different about American households that so dramatically shifts both the number of break-ins as well as how/when they occur. Poverty certainly plays a role, where the UK's poverty rate after housing expenses is twice that of the US (22% vs 11%). Doesn't explain the nature of the break-ins though.

Edit: See math from earlier post, actual number is 1 in 1,990 yearly, or a 2.5% chance of experiencing violent crime in a home invasion over 50 years. Also makes the rate of burglary nearly thrice the rate of house fires in the US. Updated the math throughout the UK paragraph to match.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 14 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

Nearly ~~600,000~~ 900,000 burglaries occur yearly in the US, with 27.6% occurring while occupants were present and 25% of those incidents involving ~~an assault~~ violent crime on the occupants. (https://insurify.com/homeowners-insurance/insights/burglary-statistics/) That comes to ~~37,500~~ ~62,100 ~~break-in assaults~~ victims of violent crimes from break-ins in the US per year, divided by 123.6 million households in the US comes to a 1 in ~~3,296~~ 1,990 chance of a household's occupants being assaulted in a break-in each year. That's ~~68%~~ roughly as many incidents as being injured or killed by a firearm anywhere in the country each year as tallied by the GVA. Hardly zero, unless you also mean to minimize US gun violence.

Though either of these stats are hardly able to be applied broadly across the entire country given their driving force of poverty and its extreme regional & local disparities.

Edit: Actually those 600,000 burglaries only account for 69% of the US population. The actual number is ~900,000 nationally, bumping the math's number of violent crimes including assault, robbery, and rape experienced in homes up to ~62,100 or 1 in 1,990, surpassing being a victim of broad gun violence as tallied by the GVA when removing instances of justified self-defense.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 18 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

Step 2: show that what they said was wrong.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 9 points 8 months ago

"You made us make this inane law"

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 13 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

You had me up until "fund the police state" as if US police unions aren't already the most powerful groups in the country to be a member of, as if any state or municipality has meaningfully cracked down on policing abuses, as if the US doesn't already have incarceration rates 5x the next NATO member, as if the US doesn't already spend more on policing than all but 2 nations do on their militaries, as if police spending ever dropped even 1%, and as if supposed funding cuts aren't just city council members shuffling the numbers around while the departments themselves see steady budget growth year-over-year.

Your experience is simply finding yourself calling in an incident on the wrong street for the wrong person, a call the officers know won't affect their bottom line. It's always been the case, whether passively delaying responses or actively corralling rioters away from wealthy districts. It's not because they're suffering for funding, it's because they know they can get away with it.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

"Go to" as if I didn't just cite that its most stringent supreme court interpretation from 100 years ago establishes it as a right of the individual. And I ain't no fucking fascist.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 10 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

New precedent trumps old precedent. It's why Brown v Board is the law of the land and Plessy v Ferguson isn't. There (to my knowledge) hasn't been a challenge to the NFA that's reached the Supreme Court since that Caetano case in 2016 and the court hasn't explicitly struck down the prior precedent of its legality, so it still stands based on the other points in the ruling. Even the current NFA-related cases against bump stock and pistol brace bans working through courts are based more on whether the ATF can consider them as NFA items rather than whether the NFA itself can be considered constitutional, so it's likely to stick around.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 6 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Wild to see liberal interpretation go from "militia means military" to "arms doesn't even mean guns". At least acknowledges it as a right of the individual, which is a step in the right direction I guess. Hell of a take when even the strictest court precedent in US v Miller acknowledges it as the right of the individual to military arms, curious how this take spins the militia line.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 9 points 11 months ago

That American liberals focus on rifles in regards to gun violence more than 1/20 as much as they do handguns or 1.75x as much as the president's recommended shotgun, nevermind the fervor for AWBs, betray the lack of concern and understanding of the issues truly driving America's culture of violence beyond "big ones are scarier".

All compounded by their laws' universal exemptions for police current and former, on-and-off-the-clock demonstrating no fear of arming the most violent among us as long as they swear fealty to minority oppression and dissident suppression in the name of maintaining capital's status quo, sleeping sound assuming those barrels won't turn inwards towards them. Hell, that the fight against gun violence now includes banning armor to protect oneself from it shows how important it is that we be obliged to let them indulge.

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TonyStew

joined 1 year ago