Research Breakdown: Sudan’s Blood Visible from Space

Research Organization

Yale Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) at Yale School of Public Health

• Led by Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director
• Uses satellite imagery analysis combined with open-source intelligence (OSINT)
• Primary satellite imagery providers: Airbus Defence and Space, Vantor

Report Links:

• Yale HRL Main Report (October 27, 2025)
• Follow-up Report (October 28, 2025)
• Yale HRL Reports Archive

What Happened: The Fall of El-Fasher

Location: El-Fasher, capital of North Darfur, western Sudan

Timeline:

• 18-month siege by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) beginning around April 2024
• October 26-27, 2025: RSF captured the city after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) withdrew
• First 72 hours: Mass killings documented through satellite imagery
• Population trapped: ~250,000-260,000 civilians besieged; only ~65,000 escaped

Key Findings from Satellite Analysis

Visual Evidence Detected from Space:

1. Reddish-brown ground discoloration consistent with blood-soaked soil

• Multiple patches large enough to be visible from satellite imagery
• Discoloration not present in previous satellite images taken before October 26

1. Clusters of white objects measuring 1.3-2.0 meters

• Consistent with human bodies lying horizontally
• Found across multiple locations throughout the city

1. Locations where bodies/blood were detected:

• Residential neighborhoods (especially Daraja Oula district)
• Saudi Hospital grounds (last functioning hospital)
• Former Children’s Hospital (RSF detention center)
• Red Crescent Society offices
• Military bases (6th Division HQ, 157th Artillery Brigade)
• Along the earthen wall (berm) surrounding the city
• University grounds and medical science laboratory

Tactical Patterns Observed:

RSF military vehicles (technicals - gun-mounted trucks) consistently positioned near body clusters, indicating:

• Systematic house-to-house clearance operations
• Controlled movement and execution sites
• Deliberate positioning for mass killings

Evidence of fleeing civilians being targeted:

• 28 destroyed vehicles along escape routes
• Body clusters along roads and near the defensive berm
• Objects resembling bodies near vehicles attempting to flee

Methodology

Data Fusion Approach:

1. High-resolution satellite imagery analysis
2. Open-source intelligence (social media, local reports)
3. Video verification from multiple sources
4. Witness testimony correlation
5. Temporal analysis (comparing imagery across days)

Limitations acknowledged by researchers:

• Limited data availability in Sudan conflict zones
• Reporting bias from those able to communicate
• Difficulty assessing detention, sexual violence without ground access
• Satellite imagery limited by available coverage and angles

Scale of Violence

Estimated casualties:

• Yale HRL: Described as comparable to 1994 Rwanda genocide in velocity
• Local defense groups: Over 2,000 civilians killed in first 48 hours
• Sudan War Monitor: Estimated 3,000+ deaths by October 30
• Researchers: Likely tens of thousands killed in the first week
• WHO: 460+ executions at Saudi Hospital alone

Nathaniel Raymond’s assessment:

“We have never seen a velocity of violence at this scale… The level of violence and number of incidents in Darfur exceed anything I have seen so far.”

Patterns of Atrocities Documented

1. Gender-based targeting:

• Men separated from women and children
• Reports of men being executed after separation
• Women and children raped while fleeing

1. Medical facility attacks:

• Saudi Hospital: Mass executions of wounded patients and staff
• Red Crescent offices stormed, medics forced into combat vehicles
• All hospitals rendered non-functional

1. Systematic ethnic cleansing:

• Targeting of Fur, Zaghawa, and Berti ethnic groups
• House-to-house clearances in specific neighborhoods
• Racial epithets used in RSF videos of killings

1. Prevented escape:

• 57-kilometer berm wall entrapping population
• Checkpoints where fleeing civilians were killed
• Communications blackout preventing information flow

Historical Context

RSF Origins:

• Descended from Janjaweed militias responsible for 2003-2005 Darfur genocide
• Previously called “devils on horseback” for rape and murder campaigns
• Now use trucks, drones, and modern weapons instead of horses

Current Conflict:

• Sudan civil war began April 2023
• Power struggle between SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”)
• 12+ million displaced, considered world’s worst humanitarian crisis
• 30 million need emergency aid

US Determination:

• January 2025: US State Department determined RSF committed genocide in Darfur

International Response

Geopolitical Backing:

• United Arab Emirates (UAE) supplies RSF with weapons, drones, funds, and mercenaries
• British-manufactured arms components recovered from RSF combat zones
• IL-76 cargo aircraft (linked to UAE resupply) documented near El-Fasher

International Statements:

• Tom Fletcher (UN Under-Secretary-General): “Blood on the sand… Blood on [our] hands”
• German Foreign Minister: Called it “absolutely an apocalyptic situation, the greatest humanitarian crisis of the world”
• Peace talks sponsored by US stalled when UAE refused to address El-Fasher situation

Legal Framework: Yale HRL assessment: Actions may constitute war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide

Current Situation (as of early November 2025)

• RSF controls all five Darfur state capitals
• Sudan effectively split east-west
• Most El-Fasher civilians remain “dead, captured, or in hiding”
• No large-scale movement of survivors detected
• Mass killings continuing through early November
• Communications blackout prevents accurate casualty counts

Comparative Historical Analysis

Raymond compared the velocity and systematic nature to:

• Rwanda 1994: ~800,000 killed by ethnic militias
• Current situation: Potentially exceeding Rwanda’s pace in affected areas

Sources & Further Reading

1. ABC News Report on Blood Visible from Space
2. NBC News: Visible from Space Analysis
3. Yale HRL Official Reports
4. Middle East Eye: Blood Splatter Visible from Space
5. Al Jazeera: Yale Report Findings
6. Globe and Mail: Signs of Massacres in Satellite Imagery
7. CBS News: Mass Killing Continuing
8. Kurdistan 24: Pools of Blood from Space

Note: This research represents one of the first documented instances where pools of human blood from mass killings were extensive enough to be detected and analyzed via commercial satellite imagery, marking a disturbing milestone in both conflict documentation and the scale of atrocities.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

here’s what Democrats would need to remove Trump from office through the two constitutional mechanisms:

PATH 1: IMPEACHMENT AND REMOVAL

Requirements:

• House of Representatives: Simple majority (218 votes out of 435) to impeach
• Senate: Two-thirds supermajority (67 votes out of 100) to convict and remove

Current Status (after 2024 elections):

• Republicans: 220 seats
• Democrats: 215 seats

Roadmap for Democrats:

Step 1: Win the House (2026 Midterms)

• Democrats need to gain 3 seats to reach 218 and control the House
• This would allow them to impeach Trump with a simple majority
• Based on yesterday’s results and historical midterm patterns, this is very achievable

Step 2: Win 2/3 of Senate (Much Harder) Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (including independents who caucus with Dems)

To reach 67 votes for conviction, Democrats would need:

• Current 47 Democratic votes
• +20 additional votes to reach 67

This means either:

• Win 20 more Senate seats (impossible in 2026 - only 35 seats up)
• Win enough seats AND convince multiple Republicans to vote for conviction

The Senate Math is Brutal:

• Even if Democrats won EVERY competitive race in 2026, they’d likely max out around 51-52 seats
• They would still need 15-16 Republicans to vote to convict Trump
• Trump was impeached twice before and acquitted both times, with minimal Republican defection

PATH 2: 25TH AMENDMENT, SECTION 4

Requirements to Initially Remove:

• Vice President JD Vance must agree
• Majority of Cabinet (currently 8 out of 15 Cabinet secretaries) must agree
• Both must submit written declaration to Congress

If President Contests (which Trump certainly would):

• Congress must vote within 21 days
• Two-thirds vote required in BOTH House AND Senate to keep president removed
• That’s 290 votes in House and 67 votes in Senate

Why This Won’t Work for Democrats:

1. Vice President JD Vance would never invoke it - he’s Trump’s chosen VP and politically aligned
2. Trump’s Cabinet is appointed by and loyal to Trump
3. Even if somehow invoked, Trump would contest it
4. Democrats would need the same impossible 2/3 supermajority in both chambers to sustain removal

Important Note: The 25th Amendment was designed for medical incapacity (coma, severe illness), NOT for removing an unpopular or incompetent president. It has never been used to remove a president against their will.

THE REALISTIC ASSESSMENT

What’s Actually Achievable:

1. 2026 House Win ✓ Likely

• Democrats flip 3+ seats
• Gain subpoena power, investigative authority
• Could impeach Trump again

1. 2026 Senate Supermajority ✗ Nearly Impossible

• Would need to win almost every race AND get Republican crossovers
• Even in a massive “blue wave,” Democrats unlikely to reach 67 votes

1. 25th Amendment ✗ Impossible Under Current Conditions

• Requires Trump’s own VP and Cabinet to turn against him
• Still requires 2/3 of Congress

Bottom Line: Democrats could realistically impeach Trump again after winning the House in 2026, but removal from office via conviction or 25th Amendment is essentially impossible without massive Republican cooperation, which is extremely unlikely given Trump’s control over the GOP base.

The more realistic Democratic strategy would be:

• Win House in 2026 → Investigate and check Trump’s power
• Win more Senate seats (even if not 67) → Block appointments and legislation
• Focus on winning the 2028 presidential election

Sources:

• Wikipedia: Impeachment in the United States
• US Senate: About Impeachment
• Constitution Center: 25th Amendment
• Wikipedia: 25th Amendment
• Cornell Law: 25th Amendment
• Bipartisan Policy Center: 25th Amendment FAQ
• Congress.gov: Presidential Disability Under 25th Amendment

https://youtu.be/37fp2n6p19Q

Widespread National Deployment

Flock Safety operates in thousands of communities across all 50 states, with:

• 5,000+ law enforcement agencies using Flock cameras
• 90,000+ cameras deployed nationwide as of July 2025
• 20+ billion license plates scanned per month
• 800+ U.S. cities that have voted to pass Flock contracts in 2025 alone

Specific Locations Mentioned

Massachusetts:

• Over 40 police departments statewide
• Boston PD successfully negotiated stricter contract terms
• Cambridge recently disabled 16 cameras after council vote

Arizona:

• Sedona (contract canceled after public protest)
• Multiple other communities across the state

Colorado:

• Denver (111 cameras at 70 intersections)
• Boulder, Colorado Springs, Lafayette, Louisville, Loveland
• Spokane County Sheriff's Office (Washington)

Oregon:

• Eugene (57 cameras, currently paused)
• Springfield (25 cameras installed but not yet activated)

Texas:

• Austin (contract ended)
• Dallas, Johnson County
• Multiple other departments statewide

Virginia:

• Norfolk (facing lawsuit over Fourth Amendment violations)
• Hopewell
• Warren County

Illinois:

• Evanston (19 cameras deactivated)
• Oak Park

California:

• Oakland (NAACP endorsement)
• Altadena
• Los Altos Hills
• Watsonville

Georgia:

• Gwinnett County PD (680+ community-funded cameras)
• Duluth, Johns Creek

Other States:

• Tennessee, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, Washington

Types of Users

• Law enforcement agencies (primary users)
• Homeowners Associations (3,000+ private organizations)
• Businesses (500+ corporate contracts)

Key Resources for Tracking Locations

• Flock's Transparency Portal - Shows participating agencies that opt in
• Eyes on Flock - Activist-run tracking site
• Deflock.me - Crowdsourced camera location database

The system is particularly concentrated in metropolitan areas but has spread to rural communities as well, creating what critics call a "national surveillance network" accessible to thousands of law enforcement agencies nationwide.

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