The year is 2050. Due to good behaviour, Putin has won a day off from hell. He decides to visit Moscow and enters a bar. “Do we still control Crimea?” He asks the bartender, who answer in the affirmative. “What about Donbass, is it ours?” Again the bartender confirms.

Putin sighs in relief. “Well. Then I’d like to order a vodka!”. “Coming right up!” Says the barkeep. “That’ll be 20 Hryvnia.”

Definitely a possibility but also I think you have to recognize that in order to fund this massive costly war against Ukraine, russia has likely had to effectively sell off large chunks of itself to China in exchange for huge amounts of military supplies.

As a result, inevitably the fail state of russia here is going to involve China effectively consolidating control over large parts of the russian economy and society, I don't really see how things could go any differently.

The more desperate russia gets the more and more it sells parts of itself off to China to attempt to salvage the situation... this feedback process will only accelerate as russia continues to collapse.

The only people who could really stop this from happening are russians themselves, and they are too busy bootlicking to really notice.

That's a fun idea for a distant future alt-history fiction book, but unfortunately pretty unbelievable as a possibility irl if you know anything about the current reality on the ground.

As a Ukrainian, I would say there is a grain of truth in what you say, with several important caveats.

First, Moscovia already collapsed as a nation due to many centuries of imperial history. At least since the beginning of the 20th century, being Russian is not about nationality, it is about belonging to the Russian empire. This is the last extant empire in Europe, oppressing numerous nations, and it is inevitably going to break down like all the others.

Interestingly, Moscovia started as a colony of the Kyiv Rus, and the history might repeat, but in a quite different manner. Since the empire is clearly inefficient, it will be gradually taken over by other more efficient states, albeit not by old style occupation. Plain occupation is impossible because of the huge territory.

Somalia story gives clues on what is likely to happen next. Many years ago Somalia leadership wanted to restore a "great Somali" as an imperial revanchist project. Then it lost the war and broke down. Now neighbouring states have established orderly protectorates near their borders, while there's still mayhem in the center of Somalia.

Similarly, the EU, and Ukraine in particular, may support civil order in new protectorates on neighbouring territories, with a perspective of eventual EU expansion further East.

I think it's more likely they help Freedom of Russia take over.