Russian air and naval activity around the Baltic Sea has grown more aggressive, and periodic airspace violations have tested allied reactions. The Baltic states have pressed NATO to evolve from rotational air policing to an integrated air and missile defense posture backed by ground-based fires that can punish aggression rapidly and at depth. In parallel, European capitals are recalibrating industrial policy to produce more rockets and missiles, but near-term gaps persist.

A U.S.-approved expansion of Estonia’s HIMARS case bridges that gap with a partner-funded solution, while sending a message that alliance front-line states will be equipped to impose costs from the outset of any crisis. It also complicates Russian planning across the Western Military District. Aircraft basing, ammunition parks, and forward command nodes that once sat outside Baltic artillery range now fall inside predictable strike arcs. That shifts risk calculations in Moscow and supports the broader NATO strategy of denial rather than delayed punishment.