I believe they just don't care, since not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses. So as long as they sell licenses to businesses (business laptops, etc), but also GitHub Enterprise (yes, Micro$oft also owns GitHub) Microsoft earns enough money that way. And also think cloud (Azure)..

My guess is therefor that the focus on Windows isn't that big anymore. I just hope more companies and gaming devs/publishes also push native binaries towards Linux.

Embrace, extend, extinguish.

SQL Server runs on Linux. Azure supports Linux. The next step is to extend into their own distro, get everyone using it, then drop support for mainstream Linux.

Will it work? Maybe. They'll have to make Microsoft Linux more attractive than Debian and Red Hat.

Microsoft already lost the home OS battle when people switch their main devices to smartphones with iOS or Android.

Some others have already said the "embrace, extend, extinguish" but here's my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0

• Embrace: Secure Boot can already work with Linux, how lucky! This gives them not exactly control, but authoritative denial over your boot process and hardware.
• Extend: This is the part that remains to be seen. If they feel threatened enough by the shift in the gaming landscape, mind you not over losing out on sales or the hearts of gamers or anything, but again control, they may begin to make Linux offerings. A concession to allow an honest to god, thick Office client on Linux would certainly appeal to some. Adobe gets in on that action to back them up with Photoshop and Activision with Call of Duty, etc.
• Extinguish: TPM 2.0. One of the less talked about features of this is remote attestation ("Remote attestation allows changes to the user's computer to be detected by authorized parties. For example, software companies can identify unauthorized changes to software, including users modifying their software to circumvent commercial digital rights restrictions." - DRM). We're already seeing this with CoD on Windows. They'll allow you to run much requested Windows software on Linux, even provide direct support possibly, but at the cost of not precisely control but authoritative denial. Which still works out to be control in most ways since if you want to use the software and they are to remotely attest, they can also insist that part of that attestation is you running some sort of telemetry or not running software they disagree with.

The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they're giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.

Exactly what they're doing right now. What cable companies did. What every dominant business does when something better starts to eat their lunch.

Become increasingly abusive and scummy towards the customers who are left, because they're either too deeply ingrained, spineless or lazy to change and they've already self-selected.

Windows is only 12% of Microsoft's revenue, and between Mac, Linux and ChromeOS, it really doesn't have a monopoly anymore on desktop (about 70%). On top of that, desktop usage in general is decreasing, and is already less than 50% of all web traffic.

What I'm saying is that I think it's safe to say something else will likely "kill" Windows long before Linux ever becomes a serious threat to it.

Work with hardware and software vendors to break linux compatibility.

The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.

Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like.. well, work.

Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.

PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more...

I feel it's a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses.. so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.

Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)... they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps... so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the "best" way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.

Well there is the 9/11 change that may be happening soon: https://techrights.org/n/2025/08/26/The_UEFI_9_11_Part_I_Introduction_to_Impending_Catastrophe_Micr.shtml

Its possible a LOT of linux machines wont work after this date.

Hear me out on this one "Microsoft Linux"

Secure boot and anti-cheat.

Some people including me maybe dont want Linux to become popular.

Can we please have something in this world that isnt ruined by the general population? They already ruined the internet -

pays even more to hardware manufacturers to add windows by default, and make drivers windows only.

It's mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.

Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.

Linux has been becoming a "serious threat" for 20+ years now. I'll wait.

Don't get me wrong I like Linux a lot. But if you step back and look objectively, it has a lot of issues trying to grow outside the hobby/enthusiast community for the desktop.

Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.

Adapt and fight. Linux is the dominant OS for everything, so Windows started to support it (wsl) so they don't loose developers. Secure boot worked as a moat for a while and the MS monopoly on OS keys is still an obstacle. Linux works better on ARM than Windows, so obviously Qualcom Laptops have a locked down bootloader. They will continue to lock themselfes into the future with money and development resources.

Desktop users (except for business) don’t make Microsoft any money, so they probably don’t care.

Honestly, ms won't do anything.

unofficial statement out of Microsoft have Linux VMs overtaking the Windows VMs in Azure.

Why should they worry about losing a once off $1100 sale of a Server 2025 license when they can sell you a 2 CPU 8Gb ram Azure VM for $150 a month? Or $113/m commited for 3 years ($4000 total)

They will adapt.

Embrace, extend, extinguish. They will become Linux.

In all seriousness, if you look into how windows manages its security now, it leverages virtualization to essentially run windows inside of a hypervisor. At some point in the future, the legacy windows kernel is going to just be another virtual machine running side by side with Linux and the hypervisor will probably run their HyperV tech on top of a Linux (compatible) kernel.

Then they will say that you need their version of Linux to run specific hardware and software.

EEE

Maybe requiring locking bootloader "for safety" on desktop computers if they want to run windows 12

Just my guess here, but...

The desktop/laptop sort of form factor is associated in people's minds with unlocked bootloaders. People expect to be able to install Linux on them if they want to. Tablets, game systems, and other sorts of consumer electronics, not so much. I'm thinking Microsoft will do what it can to push hardware manufacturers and the software industry as a whole more in the direction of the kinds of devices that consumers already expect to be locked down like tablets or game systems that are "streaming" game systems. And that way, the bootloader will prevent folks from switching to Linux.