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I understand the historical significance since the nationalists retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War.

Back then, and for perhaps the middle part of the 20th century, there was a threat of a government in exile claiming mainland China. Historically, then, there was your impetus for invasion.

However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.

Another reason people give: control the supply of chips. Yet, wouldn’t the Fabs, given their sensitive nature, be likely to be significantly destroyed in the process of an invasion?

Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?

People mention that taking Taiwan would be a breakout from the “containment” imposed by the ring of U.S. allies in the region.

Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.

So what is it then? Is it just for national pride and glory? Is it to create a legacy for their leadership? The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.

Anyway, appreciate your opinions thanks!

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[-] empireOfLove2@lemmy.dbzer0.com 88 points 1 week ago

One, it completes one of their long standing policy of "one China". They still view Taiwan as a rogue rebellion state to bring back into the fold, not an independent country to conquer.

Two, it would cripple a lot of the west's high end silicon industry. TSMC is the only one that can make the worlds most advanced nodes, as well as Taiwan holds chip packaging infrastructure that any other nodes require on to be useful.

To that end it is a geopolitical chip that China can use to pressure the west, but likely will never act upon until a real hot war breaks out.

[-] Drusas@fedia.io 40 points 1 week ago

They still view Taiwan as a rogue rebellion state to bring back into the fold, not an independent country to conquer.

I think this should never be mentioned without also pointing out that the island of Taiwan has never been a part of China.

[-] DeathByBigSad@sh.itjust.works 35 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The PLA has never stepped foot on the island of Taiwan, correct.

But Qing Dynasty has ruled Taiwan, and now the Republic of China is currently on Taiwan

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[-] novibe@lemmy.ml 7 points 1 week ago

In what way..? Taiwan has been a part of all Chinese states for centuries.

[-] mnemonicmonkeys@sh.itjust.works 12 points 1 week ago

All?

Sees lemmy.ml address

Ah, that explains it

[-] BrainInABox@lemmy.ml 8 points 1 week ago

Lazy adhominem

[-] novibe@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 week ago

Literally since before the US was even a thing… so yes, all, for centuries.

[-] rumimevlevi@lemmings.world 4 points 1 week ago

So? Before Qing dynasty taiwan was not part of china and became part through conquests. Taiwan has the right to be a separate entity what they dfon't have right to is to becone the usa puppet and threten china security and the interests that they have right to

[-] novibe@lemmy.ml 7 points 1 week ago

Taiwan has been a part of China for far longer than the US has existed. Or that Hawaii has been part of the US. And there’s pretty good support for independence in Hawaii…

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[-] crimsonpoodle@pawb.social 12 points 1 week ago

It would cripple it now but TSMC has started building Fabs in North America— but it would certainly cripple its output in the short term— then again, the U.S governments current incompetence not withstanding, you would think that if that ever happened the U.S would be able to emergency build Fabs within a few (2-4?) years if necessary.

[-] thisisbutaname@discuss.tchncs.de 16 points 1 week ago

From what I know, it's not that simple. Those are very complex and delicate processes, so the 2 to 4 years timeline sounds quite optimistic.

Also, it's entirely possible TSMC doesn't want to transfer the entirety of its knowledge to the US, as it basically guarantees the US would intervene in the case of an invasion to protect the supply of advanced chips.

[-] drspectr@lemmy.world 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The fabs themselves aren't the only limiting factor on modern lithography, skill is the bigger one; this stuff is probably more complicated than rocket science. We US engineers dont have the skills to run a competitive fab in the US, that takes many years of losing money to be developed. Intel has bigger better EUV machines than TSMC but they just cant compete and intel keeps laying off their engineers constantly which is a very bad signal.

Also, last time I was reading on the topic TSMC doesn't plan to produce advanced chips on their US fabs to gatekeep their knowledge.

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[-] lemmylommy@lemmy.world 42 points 1 week ago

You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west, where usually the economy is number one in everything.

Xi has achieved unrivaled rule over the party. He has successfully established a police state that ensures that any domestic dissent is immediately crushed with brutal efficiency. He has subjugated the provinces that dared to think about self rule and cultural differences, and is in the process of ethnic cleansing without any significant opposition or consequences. He has gained colonial influence all over Africa through economic means. He has taken over Hong Kong. He has significantly modernized and expanded the military, including nuclear weapons. He had made China into a global economic superpower, which other countries, including rivals, depend on for a significant amount of manufactured goods and resources.

So what is left for him? Surely he is not a man who can be content with what he has.

The obvious next step is to make China into a military superpower. For that you need to exert power abroad. What better place to begin with than that small island just off your coast that has been a challenge to Chinese supremacy for decades?

Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak. If China manages to take Taiwan, they will not only have removed that thorn in their side, they will also have punched the biggest, meanest kid on the block on the nose and gotten away with it.

[-] mnemonicmonkeys@sh.itjust.works 6 points 1 week ago

Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak.

Keep in mind that China is struggling as well. Their debt problems are several times worse than the US, so they could suffer a major recession within the next few years if a significant disruption like war happens.

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[-] psx_crab@lemmy.zip 23 points 1 week ago

Land and the sea surrounding Taiwan, which comes with resource that they can exploit, and controling people that they claim is theirs. It's the same reason why europe sail across the sea to colonize others land, and why US doesn't let Puerto Rico become independent. China never acknowledged that Taiwan is an independent country, they always believe that Taiwan is their territory. It's imperialism.

[-] jlh@lemmy.jlh.name 21 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Lots of good points, but one aspect that people haven't mentioned yet is that Taiwan is part of the "first island chain"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

If the PRC conquers Taiwan, then it makes it much harder for the west to blockade the PRC in future conflicts.

Though technically, it is much more important to control the strait of Malacca than Taiwan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca_dilemma

[-] MuskyMelon@lemmy.world 11 points 1 week ago

The island chain strategy is the exact reason why China desires Taiwan. If anything, it's a desire not to be blockaded.

It's also the reason why China has been trying to dominate the South China Sea because that's its only outlet to open seas.

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[-] foggianism@lemmy.world 19 points 1 week ago

From China's geopolitical standpoint:

Taiwan lies between China and the Pacific Ocean.

Taiwan is part of the First Island Chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) — many of these are U.S.-aligned or host U.S. bases.

Control over Taiwan would:

Give China greater military and surveillance reach into the Pacific.

Potentially allow it to break out of U.S.-aligned containment.

Give it more control over critical sea lanes and access to deeper waters (vital for its navy).

[-] BotsRuinedEverything@lemmy.world 15 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

In 100 years, long after the United States has broken into Baltic states, there will be a reunification movement and people will ask "why do they want to invade Texas?". There will be politicians who's whole political careers will be built on the promise they can make the United States one country again. Understand this and you will understand China and Taiwan.

[-] crimsonpoodle@pawb.social 6 points 1 week ago

I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it. So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.

[-] DeathByBigSad@sh.itjust.works 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it.

Taiwan was under Qing Rule until the Japanese took it. Then when Imperial Japan lost, they gave Taiwan back to ROC in 1945.

So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.

No, it's be more like Japan taking Hawaii during WW2, then Japan loses and the US regains it, then immediately after, the US has a civil war between people who believe in the constitution vs a neo-nazi insurgency. The neo-nazi insurgency wins and the US government then flees to Hawaii. Then the neo-nazi insurgent-government in continental US is trying to regain Hawaii, while those who fled to Hawaii is trying to declare a "Republic of Hawaii" in order to preserve their democracy.

[-] Zwuzelmaus@feddit.org 15 points 1 week ago

What does China achieve

The typical bully's satisfaction.

[-] clutchtwopointzero@lemmy.world 13 points 1 week ago

china is a bit like Yugoslavia before the end: lots of different ethnicities being forced to be together. letting a country made up of Chinese people exist in parallel to china keeps a flame of hope alight for those 51 non-Han Chinese ethnicities that were forced to be part of continental china. and China has struggled immensely with multitudes of local kingdoms and warlords throughout its history so it is afraid as its people are very aware of this past through historical dramas

[-] Ilixtze@lemmy.ml 5 points 1 week ago

Oh boy! i can imagine what are your opinions on "lots of ethnicities forced to be together"

[-] crimsonpoodle@pawb.social 4 points 1 week ago

Well not in the melting pot way— but the you’re Han Chinese now way

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[-] reksas@sopuli.xyz 13 points 1 week ago

Even if taiwans technology manufacturing gets destroyed in the invasion, it's still major part of western world's component infrastructure. They can also just rebuild. China gaining control over that or even just denying it to west would make china internationally more powerful no matter how it goes.

Most likely that isnt the only reason they want taiwan, but i dont believe it isnt one of them.

[-] aeronmelon@lemmy.world 12 points 1 week ago

Same thing they gained from invading Hong Kong, they think it belongs to them.

Or as one of my old friends told me while playing Final Fantasy 12; the only legitimate reason to wage war against another country - land.

Hong Kong is already part of the Chinese mainland and was already kinda part of China, but Taiwan is a geographically strategic location that puts both Koreas, the Philippines, & Japan in a tougher position. Even without war it would make trade and travel in the Pacific much harder.

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[-] sharkfucker420@lemmy.ml 11 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Taiwan is a fantastic launching point for an invasion of China and Taiwan has decent relations with the US and other capitalist states who have an interest in opposing China. Yk how people say Israel is an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle east? Taiwan could be like that for China if the western powers decided to use it as such. There is already a US military base there. Imagine how the US would react if Cuba had a Chinese military base? This is the main material reason.

Chip manufacturing could also play a role but it is a minor one compared to this.

[-] Objection@lemmy.ml 11 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

It's a staging area for the US that's very close to China, so there's that reason strategically. But really, there's not a lot of reason to which is why they haven't done so already. China is, as far as I'm aware, perfectly happy with the traditional US approach towards Taiwan, a policy of "strategic ambiguity" that doesn't officially recognize Taiwan as independent (while informally supporting them) and which has kept the peace for many decades. China does not gain much from provoking a military confrontation with the US, as things stand, China is winning the peace through economic development while the US is going all in on the military. By maintaining the status quo, China can leave the issue open and kick the can down the road, maintaining the possibility that someday in the future they may be in a strong enough position to press the issue.

Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?

That's exactly what they've been doing. That article mentions that they've actually recruited 3000 engineers from Taiwan's chip industry to help develop their own chips.

Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.

Taiwan's stance is defensive, but the same isn't necessarily true of the US, which operates in Taiwan. The US has recently started throwing around rhetoric and shifting spending focuses towards treating a hot war with China as a serious possibility, insane as it may be. This is (hopefully) just bluster to justify defense spending, but I'm not at all convinced that if China sent a carrier to the Middle East, the US would not retaliate. If anything, they're looking for a reason.

[-] surph_ninja@lemmy.world 9 points 1 week ago

The premise of your question is all wrong. It centers western control of Taiwan as a natural status quo, and so paints every challenge of that control as a provocation or threat.

Advocating for Taiwan’s sovereignty is not the same as advocating for Taiwan’s continued fealty to the west.

[-] Agrajag@scribe.disroot.org 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Imo I think the biggest thing is it would be completing the revolution in the sense that the KMT fled to Taiwan and is a holdout, that would be a huge win for national pride and legitimacy for the government. The second biggest thing would be nothaving another country with an army so close to them that is "hostile" to their interests. And then after that there would be a lot of other benefits like absorbing their industry, economic zones, military bases, etc. They would much rather have the modern KMT party win an election and vote to become a part of China, than invade, which while very unlikely is not impossible by any means in the span of decades.

[-] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 8 points 1 week ago

The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.

China is not invading Taiwan. However if it comes to a war with the US, then it really has to take out Taiwan. It is just too close to the mainland, allowing for easy bombing and missile attacks, while als being able to cut off shipping from the mainland. Obviously the US likes that a lot, as it makes war against the US much more costly for China.

At the same time leaders often make horrible decisions. Just look at the US invading Iraq and Afghanistan or Russia invading Ukraine. Clearly not good wars for the countries invading, but they still did it.

[-] IndustryStandard@lemmy.world 7 points 1 week ago

The giant American military base next to China falls.

Also Taiwan claims to be part of China. And America claims Taiwan is part of China.

[-] Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz 6 points 1 week ago

lemmitors: They hate Taiwan for their freedom!

The same Russia gained from invading Ukraine, I guess: securing themselves from future, final NATO aggression by proxy.

[-] Drusas@fedia.io 10 points 1 week ago

Yeah, Taiwan is going to be in NATO. 🙄

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[-] AlteredEgo@lemmy.ml 5 points 1 week ago

Evil, Scary China Refuses To Passively Let Us Encircle It: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone

That's a pretty good article explaining it. The funny thing is that the US media is always framing China as the aggressor. But one look at that map, like with your real eyes, not the crazy eyes, should show you the US is way out there on someone else's doorstep and who the aggressor is. That's just geography.

Personally I don't think China is going to invade Taiwan unless things escalate further. For example, the Russian perspective on the Ukraine is that the US supported the regime change through the NED, helped far right elements overthrow the democratically elected regime and then supported their stance to ban Russian language, oppress Russian speaking populations in Ukraine and supplied them with massive amounts of arms and intelligence. All of this is true historical fact. And in that situation even the chief of NATO Stoltenberg publicly said that Russia launched a "preemptive war" in response to this quasi-NATO membership right on their doorstep. If the US does the same with Taiwan, China might invade. That particular gabit is rather unlikely to succeed in Taiwan though, and Taiwan is far less dangerous to China than a hostile well supplied Ukraine is to Russia (only like 500 miles from Moskow). The smart play for China if that happens is to play rope-a-dope until the US gets tired. Kinda what Iran is doing about the numerous provocations and acts of war against them.

[-] bigpEE@lemmy.world 4 points 1 week ago

Classic .ml!

[-] rumimevlevi@lemmings.world 5 points 1 week ago

Stopping american influence

[-] GuyDudeman@lemmy.world 4 points 1 week ago

Street cred.

[-] Pirate@feddit.org 4 points 1 week ago

it's like Spain wanting Catalonia to be under control. Why would Spain want to lose control of a part of their own country?

[-] x00z@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago

Too bad Taiwan is not part of China.

[-] Pirate@feddit.org 7 points 1 week ago

It is though. Both countries claim the other part to be part of the other. Denying that is just western histeria.

[-] x00z@lemmy.world 6 points 1 week ago

Taiwan does not claim that over China.

And just because somebody claims something it doesn't make it true.

[-] Pirate@feddit.org 6 points 1 week ago

Go read Taiwan's constitution, it's right there. The only reason why Taiwan doesn't talk about it publicly is because in international relations being the oppressed underdog gets you more diplomatic points.

In real terms, most countries don't recognise Taiwan's independence either, and that includes the EU and the US.

The US only pays lip service to Taiwan's independence because it's a free talking point in their broader "China Bad" propagan machine.

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this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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