Probably exactly what has been reported. Putin waited for things to settle, weakened Wagner troops by taking their weapons and splitting their numbers, then they killed leadership. Occam's razor certainly points to this.
But, of course, the way it was done certainly leaves the door open for conspiracies.
Even if he's not dead, his mercenaries believe that he is. If they're getting paid, they'll do what leadership tells them. If not, they won't. Simple as, he's not an elected leader, his death just means his company has shit to figure out, but his non-death means shit will keep going as it was.
Wagner is not a PMC and wagnerites not real mercenaries. Most of them are ultra-nationalists and that's their primary motivation to fight. There are some weird Nazi/cult elements. Prigozhin has built up that cult, he's not easily replaceable.
Not necessarily. The mercenaries are spreading a lot of these conspiracies through Telegram. I don’t have polling available, so idk how many of them think he’s alive.
Given the current state of Russia, almost all of the (conspiracy) theories are currently not completely impossible and nothing can be said with certainty.
Russian politics is a bit like watching a couple of pitbulls fighting under a carpet. You can certainly see movement, and hear that something is happening, but you don't really know what happened till you see the bones of the loser tossed back out.
That was said in the 30s or 40s by Churchill, and I probably butchered the quote, but it leads me to believe that this has been the state of Russia for a long time
While certainly would be Putin's style, I would've expected them to wait until BRICS summit was over given that I doubt they wanted to remind everybody of the whole mutiny business.
I think it's extremely unlikely that he's not dead. If Prigozhin were to surface elsewhere in the world (e.g. Africa), Putin would be even more of a laughing stock. Putin simply wouldn't risk anything less than absolute certainty.
However, I doubt that Prigozhin was alive when the plane took off; most likely Utkin and Chekalov were dead as well. Best guess is that the three were killed the night before.
I doubt that Prighozin was alive when the plane took off
Personally, this is where my own Occam's Razor points to. I find the whole thing to be rather like a circus, the death is being shown off to the world. It makes no sense that the plane would be going where it was and it makes no sense that Putin would confirm a death that didn't happen, so death-faking also seems off the books.
Out of all possibilities, the "plane didn't even have the corpse, but Prigoman is already a corpse somewhere no one will ever find it" makes the most sense. Perhaps a plane about to be shot down IS the best place to leave it if the goal is no one finding it, but why leave it to chance? Incinerate the corpse and spread the ashes, and then you can do whatever theatrics you want.
This is a guy who humiliated Putin 2 month ago with his protest (attempted coup ? ) to Moscow. Considering how Putin treats his opponent it's crazy that he survived that long.
yes it could be a body double and he is hiding on the same island as Elvis, but let's believe the simplest hypothesis
I was listening to a Russia expert on the radio this week. He was explaining that he was well liked among the oligarchs, oligarchs who are currently pissed at Putin cause they're being tethered by this war, they've lost their holiday homes abroad, they can't spend the summer in Monaco on their yachts, their businesses can't even operate really, they're the ones who can actually influence anything there, so killing Prigozhin outright would be a slap in the face to those people.
He had to put doubt in there that it wasn't an execution to prevent a full revolt, but even so the revolt might happen.
Do people really think these things aren’t executions? Do people in Russia believe these lies that are clearly transparent to the rest of the world?
From what I understood, no. It's more like putting the seed of doubt there so it's difficult to organise a full revolt. Like people think it's 99% him, but there's enough to keep the anger bubbling under the surface.
I'm assuming Prigozhin got arrogant and thought Putin wouldn't touch him. And Putin decided that the proximity warhead on an S-200 missile blowing an aircraft apart wasn't technically "touching".
Intelligence has confirmed it wasn’t a missile strike, from my understanding. Seems like an engine exploded, probably tampering.
I'll admit, I've not been following the story closely. So, I'll take your word on the lack of a missile. But ya, I'd still bet on this being Putin eliminating an enemy in some way.
I think he’s dead. But I didn’t know about the body double thing. The thing is, all of Wagner leadership getting on a plane together and flying over Russia seems so, pardon me, idiotic. So idiotic that now I know about the body doubles I am questioning the whole situation now.
We are assuming they were alive when the plane lifted off.
Imagine being one of the body doubles, getting into this plane with the other body doubles… like “I’m guessing they’re not serving peanuts on this flight?”
I’m embarrassed and a little ashamed I lol’d at that. Being a body double is a pretty crummy vocation.
I encourage you not to discount the possibility that they're dumb or cocky. After watching The Mole: Undercover in North Korea, I just can't look at people like this the same way.
The Mole: Undercover in North Korea
Putting that on my watch list now, thanks!
it would be mighty embarrassing for Russia if he were to show up alive somewhere now, so this time I'll believe them. they had every reason to kill him as publicly as they apparently have
Putin had him killed. Prigozhin probably thought he was safe for some reason, but Putin took the first good chance he got to take him out. To me that's the likeliest option. It is theoretically possible the whole thing was a stunt of some sort, but I don't believe it.
He was also a liability for Putin. The guy wouldn't take 2 months of vacation in Belarus, I doubt he would manage to stay hidden with a fake identity.
British royal family: There's a reason you'll never find more than one of us on a plane at the same time.
Russian officials: Hold my vodka!
Putin's people got to him somehow, it was inevitable.
Putin waited patiently that all the wagner's guys were in the same plane to make a strike. They were enough stupid to take offer him such a good opportunity. Wagner's troops were already in difficulties now putins has cuts the heads.
Probably got murdered.
I am really surprised, almost flabbergasted, that apparently nobody has made an AI fake video of him claiming that he's still alive.
I think he got scared and figured making his death seem as real as possible was a better alternative than not. The best way to run from your enemy is to make him think he already killed you, because then they stop looking. He wasn't a stupid man and was known to be so paranoid he had all those body doubles and stuff like you said. It wouldn't surprise me if he got unalived but IMO he wanted out from under Putins gaze.
Putin (or whoever did the hit) did not throw Prigozhin out of a window. They threw the window out of Prigozhin, who happened to be in an airplane.
I don't know if Putin ordered it; he could have but there are others with the ability to kill who could do it.
If anyone had an interest in killing him, it would be the Russian Armed Forces. You also have the problem that this isn't a typical assassination attempt; Putin doesn't down a plane.
Two body doubles would have been needed, the #2 in command was also onboard. I think he's really dead.
This guy has a good explanation https://mastodon.social/users/ChrisO_wiki/statuses/110962681044644179
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