Why is the generation born because we fought the Nazis so into this shit?
They are the weak men created by good times. We are living through the hard times they created.
I got worried at first, but upon further inspection this is a return2ozma post.
Nothing here is truthful or holds any merit.
Good day
Dementia donnie is trying to thwart efforts to help Americans in the wake of two hurricanes. He wants to end democracy as we know it, and there are still people stupid enough to think he should run the place.
SMH.
Maybe the neoliberals should stop trying to throw the race to suck up to corporate donors.
Again.
Money from donors/SuperPACs > winning against Neo-Mussolini
We'll see if they still feel that way when Mango Mussolini throws them in a camp.
Obama will spend his final days on Martha's Vineyard, surrounded by loving grandchildren and giant piles of money.
Meanwhile, its going to be the 1.1M people barred from voting in Florida on Felony Disenfranchisement rules that end up in the camps.
I wouldn't count on it, but I also wouldn't bet against it.
A liberals last thought would be "I wish this labor camp had more female prison guards, that would have made me feel better about executed."
I don't like Harris very much. But the fact that half the country is willing to choose a deranged con artist over her is just beyond any rational thought.
Rationality has nothing to do with it.
It's all fear based. They think the migrants coming across the border are coming to take their job, rape them, break into their home, shop at the same Walmart as them, etc.
I want to commend you for how well you did that. Absolutely beautiful ending with “shop at the same Walmart as them”
That's what happen when you fuck your education system for money
Half the voting population, more specifically
Or I guess in this case, half of those polled
Everything is fear based and not rationale.
Trump voters fear immigrants; Fear their guns, religion and identity are somehow being taken away. They fear and refuse to understand the world is constantly changing and that we need to adapt along with it.
Harris voters (rightly) fear trump and all the bigotry, racism, and misogyny he has enabled and emboldened.
Most of the American people don’t have something to vote for, only something to vote against. The ruling class is further detached for the working class by stoking culture wars gaslighting on the socioeconomic disparage
The media wants a race. That’s the only way they get viewers.
Or... it really is THAT close of a race. When we shrug it off as "the media just wants a race" we get complacent.
www.vote.gov make sure you're registered and double check even if you think you already are. Early voting is happening in some states. Get active
Always vote like your vote will make a difference. It might, especially local races. If we accidentally turn the election into a sweep by everyone voting, oh well.
Who’s shrugging off anything? Did I say that? Nope. I’m just saying that we can have a close race and it still be true that Harris holds a 3-point lead nationally and small leads in the swing states. My point is that the media ALWAYS try making it even closer than what it is. Do you disagree with that?
Landslide stomps get views too. They made a game of Reagan's run in literally 1984 trying to predict if he could win all 50 states or not. (He fell one short).
nbc had the race tied at this point in 2012. how'd that election turn out?
all gas, no brakes.
A projected blowout is bad for ad revenue.
"Keep watching, our ad space is in great shape for the quarterly earnings report "
What about in 2020?...
They had Hillary with a ten point lead at this point in 2016.
If Harris starts speaking like Clinton then I'd be worried... as worried as a wiped server... you know... with a cloth.
538 has Trump's support at his 2016 final levels. This is relevant to note because, in both prior elections, the polls were extremely good at predicting the baseline margins from diehards and registered, and the error came from badly guessing the undecideds wrong.
Unless this is the first election in a long long time to actually get the baseline wrong or literally 100% of the undecideds go to Harris, Trump's got above 2016 in raw percentage totals basically locked in(in 2016 a ton of people went third party so neither he or Hillary actually crossed 50 percent, Hillary was 48.2 and Trump 46.1). In 2020 it was 46.8 for Trump and 51.3% for Biden. If things continue to trend that way Trump will be close to his 2020 total percentage locked in and thus will almost certainly be higher in the final count. The people genuinely leaving Trump will mostly be former undecideds, not the people locked in, so this number isn't being shifted as much. That does suggest that, even with his general ceiling region not shifting a ton, he's probably set to break 47% in the final number if not more (Trump was polling sub-45 in both 2016 and 2020 so 48 is also plausible).
This matters mostly because not every undecided is going to break for Harris or Trump, there will be people sticking third party who most polls lump in with them or at least contribute to the 'Not Harris or Trump' number, and this is one of the few areas where the general trend is not in Harris's favor. Just broadly speaking this is the most left-wing Third Party batch we've had since 2000.
As much as people love to say voting third party helps Republicans, that hasn't been the case in a while, the Libertarians have been the strongest for a long while and they usually siphon off more Republicans, especially Anti-Trump Ron Paul types. They probably cost Trump Georgia in 2020. But the Libertarian party has been in a state of collapse since 2022, there was an attempted takeover by a hard right clique, which lead to a nasty party schism that left the party not cooperating, then a ton of Hardliners defected to Trump when the Moderates got control of the primaries, and then to make matters worse RFK joined in around that time taking most of the right wing moderates and leaving the Left Libertarians to put Chase Oliver on the ticket. So a ton of Libertarian voters either left with the hardliners for Trump a year ago or left for RFK who in turn endorsed Trump likely redirecting some more of them to him, and what's left is the most Left-Wing Libertarian the party has run since the 1970s.
Then there's the fact the Constitution Party has been steadily weakening for years, they lost their status as the Number 3 Third Party in 2020 to the PSL, and this year they had a schism between the Mormon and Protestant factions. They also mostly take Republican Votes. Or the fact the usual coalition of small right wing parties all working together to back one candidate(Rocky De Le Fuente last time) are all gone. Why? They all hitched to RFK Jr, and he dropped out too late for any of them to pick new guys. (That I honestly suspect was the real goal of his candiacy. Wipe out the small right wing third parties and weaken the Libertarians).
On the other foot, the Greens are proportionally stronger as Jill Stein has better name recognition than Howie, the Party for Socialism and Liberation is surging with youth support and is set to break their all time record again, and Cornel West...exists.
It could be far worse, lawsuits kept most of them off of most Swing States, Nevada kept the Green Party off and has the Constitution Party, and Pennsylvania and Arizona only have the Greens and Libertarians. Wisconsin and Michigan also still have RFK Jr on them despite Cornel West and Claudia being there. But it's still way more left leaning than normal just from the Libertarian crisis and lack of small right parties even without those new guys.
Let's say around 1.5% of the undecideds go Third Party. Lower than 2020, way way lower than 2016, about on parr with previous years. It's going to be mostly people who would otherwise vote democrat. The Popular Vote to Electoral College margin is supposed to be quite a bit less this year, but sub-Hillary margins nationally are probably a loss. So Harris wants a 2 point lead and there's around 98.5% available. It's gonna be tight.
TL:DR The lower number of undecideds also means that less of them need to break for Trump to give a win, even with the gap between Popular Vote and Electoral College predicted to shrink significantly. Polls have been very accurate at predicting the baseline support, it's the undecideds they suck at guessing.
Trump's baseline just hit 46.1%, 2016 final levels(not 2016 baseline that was barely 40%, big difference) and at the rate it's slowly creeping up could be at or close to 2020 final levels, 46.8%. Harris has been stuck at 48 and a half points for a bit. Assuming this trend holds another 4 weeks we're looking at something like 48.8 to 46.8 baseline nationally or in that general area. Some of those undecideds are going for third parties, likely more left leaning ones.
All that accounting for if Trump wins just half the undecideds the final result gap would be around 2 points, similar to 2016 if not slightly smaller, which is probably a Trump win. He's converted enough to diehards he's gone from needing 2/3+ to just half. And Trump won with the undecideds both prior elections. Harris is improving, absolutely, but the changing third party situation is a braking factor absorbing and neutralizing it to a degree(in 2020 and especially 2016 Trump was bleeding more votes to guys like Gary Johnson, Jo Jorgenson, Rocky De Le Fuente, and Evan McMullin. This year the third party composition has shifted left thanks to the rise of the PSL, strengthing of the Greens, RFK Jr killing the small right wing bloc, and Libertarian infighting.). So this change was a net negative and Harris's growth has been somewhat absorbed in neutralizing this. That's also probably why Trump's raw base total is up, among other things a lot of hardliner Hoppean or Rothbardian LIbertarians jumped ship to him when Chase Oliver and the moderates won the party.
Take a swing state for example. Less accurate overall, but just a hypothetical, and it's a clean "get the most votes and it's yours" so no need to guess ratios. According to 538, There's 4 and a half points not locked in, Harris is leading by 0.4-0.7 and it's fluctuating day to day. Pennsylvania isn't a super 3rd party happy state compared to some of the sunbelt, and PSL and Cornel didn't get on, so that's a bit more favorable. Let's say 1 point goes to third party, a bit more Harris thanks to the internal shifts, but not by much. Of of the remaining 3.5, if 63% were to go to Trump, that's it, even with the best case 0.8 point base lead Harris loses. If it's more like 0.4 Trump just needs around 55% of the undecideds. That's it. And this state is better in the third party spread than some others. Trump won more than those numbers from them the last two elections.
Who answers polls?
Blame the polls if you want. The race is a coin flip. I find it hard to stomach too, but I'm not in denial about it.
Old people, mostly.
I did, a few weeks ago.
I'm part of that 5% thay says she aint left enough.
"If I can't get universal healthcare, I'll vote for the end of all social services and democracy as we know it. That'll show em!"
Did I fucking say that?
A dead heat in polling is not an even race. We know Democrats need a significant lead to be break even on election day.
quick we must go even further right! - dnc strategists
I swear if they come out as anti women bodily rights next...
Democrats keep conceding right-leaning policies as if Republicans actually just want those policies
Republicans are reactionary - they don't just want tougher immigration policies. They want to hurt immigrants. If democrats push right, Republicans will just go further.
There is no moderate right-wing position that can win over moderate Republicans that they can't beat by going further right.
I've seen some of Blue MAGA begging for George W Bush to endorse Harris. wtf.
Blue MAGA? Wtf are you talking about?
Honestly, you can't trust the tv news polls. They want people to watch and Trump gets them numbers.
Fucking HOW?
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