This isn't really true in this election. Usual caveats, I'm voting blue and all that.
But likely voter polls favor Biden more than registered voters. There's straight up not a linear regression of people voting to democratic winners like this presents. It's bad statistics.
People who don't pay attention to politics at all are more likely to vote for Trump. I think that makes a lot of sense. People who pay attention aren't as likely to vote for him as people who don't really follow.
How many people, realistically, would vote for a white male Democrat but NOT a non-white female?
People are talking about this, but I don't know who this voter is. The hard line racists and sexists were not moderates, they're all already Republican.
There are far more democrats that were against Biden because of his age than would be against Harris as a woman. This is a net gain. Fuck the people who won't vote for her along gender or racial lines. I don't want to try and appease them.
Give people something to vote FOR rather than vote against.