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submitted 2 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

A new poll in New Hampshire shows Vice President Kamala Harris is six points ahead of former President Donald Trump in the battleground state.

The survey of more than 2,000 registered New Hampshire voters by Saint Anselm College took place on July 24-25, after Harris secured enough delegate support to become the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

Harris leads Trump 50% to 44% in the poll. A poll taken by Saint Anselm in June after President Biden struggled in the debate showed Trump edging out Biden in New Hampshire by two points.

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[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 129 points 2 months ago

Great. Glad to hear it. But don't get complacent. Remind yourself that polls can change fast, and polling itself is a troubled science right now because of the difficulties involved in getting a statistically significant and unbiased sample with the advent of universal cellphones.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 54 points 2 months ago

I came in here for exactly this.

DON’T GET COMPLACENT

Here is how to volunteer for text banking, apparently. I plan to get off Lemmy and do some later today.

The fuckin world could still end in January. Don’t get all complacent.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 7 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Yep, and you don't have to limit yourself to just text banking too. There's post card writing, canvassing, phone banks, vote registration drives, etc.

Here's another site people can use to find a bunch of local volunteer opportunities around them

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago

Thank you for sharing that link! More people need to see it.

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[-] ikidd@lemmy.world 61 points 2 months ago

I hope that orange fuck just gets crushed when election day rolls around. Then we'll never have to hear from him again.

[-] krashmo@lemmy.world 31 points 2 months ago

There is no scenario besides death where that last sentence is true. Even then you're going to be hearing the same shit from his supporters for a long time.

[-] BassTurd@lemmy.world 10 points 2 months ago

I think you're correct, but if he becomes completely nonviable, the party will phase him out. He's a useful-ish idiot right now. That might not be true for long, and then maybe his legal safety nets will stop protecting him once they see he can't do anything for them.

[-] TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world 8 points 2 months ago

Look at the trend from across the world. The far-right is not crushed-- only kept at bay. Marine Le Pen and her party in France have been going at it for 7 years now. Without the tactical voting in previous elections, her party would have won. AfD surpassed the centre left SDP party as the second most popular party and it may only be a matter of time for another far right party to rule Germany again. And the far-right, as we speak, is in charge in Italy along with Mussolini's granddaughter. In Netherlands, Geert Wilders' party is finally in power despite initially losing 7 years ago.

The liberal media's celebration of any news of far right not winning in any country is false sense of security and deliberate attempt to misdirect the real root cause. If the underlying economic and social issues are not addressed, and the rich are being allowed to get even richer while the poor ever poorer, the far right will only inch closer and closer to attaining power again.

[-] ECB@feddit.org 5 points 2 months ago

Yup, this is just a replay of early 20th century. Inequality exploded and eventually you had revolutions virtually everywhere (in europe and the west, ar least).

Some were extreme-left (communism)

Some were extreme-right (facism)

Some were far-left for the time (social-democratic, or "new deal" as it's known in the US)

Some were violent, some were relatively peaceful.

But they were basically all inevitable, the people were frustrated and willing to support whatever platform promised something 'different'.

We're at that point currently, but only the far-right is offering anything different, so even though it's a terrible option, people will gravitate towards it. The solution is to offer genuine vision of change from the left.

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[-] Fedizen@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

he'll whine but I'm pretty sure if he loses he'll spend the rest of his time on house arrest at his resort

[-] pyre@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

god that would be so awesome to see him decimated by a woman of color... the electoral college is a huge issue but there's finally some energy on the Dem side... we'll see.

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[-] lennybird@lemmy.world 40 points 2 months ago

I got both my brother-in law and sister-in-law to sign up for automatic voter registration and mail-in-ballots! If you know people who lean left but are kind of apathetic voters, it pays to pester them (kindly)!

If everyone did this, we could massively amplify voter turnout.

It's also worth having those conversations with family and friends who lean right. You're the only ones who could possibly get through to them. Slow and steady is key.

[-] MagicShel@programming.dev 18 points 2 months ago

Slow and steady is key.

Yeah. I tried "If you vote for Trump, you're a racist." That didn't go well.

What worked better was 4 granddaughters and a gay grandson. Sometimes you just have to play the long game.

[-] lennybird@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago

Yep, exactly! Also perhaps offering a trade, "Hey I'll watch one thing of yours if you promise to watch one thing I send to you." Then show them the documentary of, say, "The Brainwashing of my Dad."

[-] homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world 30 points 2 months ago
  1. Polls are garbage.

  2. The Horse Race demands more polls

  3. Whatever the poll results are, see #1

[-] jballs@sh.itjust.works 7 points 2 months ago

I disagree that polls are garbage. If that were the case, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said, ignore the polls and make sure you vote.

[-] homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

I’m not saying polls aren’t useful. I’m saying they’re tortured fabrications of some paper-thin slice of reality that can be moulded into whatever narrative is desired.

Occasionally, they mirror the actual zeitgeist. But more often than not, they’re simply created to push a narrative.

[-] IcePee@lemmy.beru.co 3 points 2 months ago

Does this also apply to exit polls?

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[-] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 25 points 2 months ago

This is what happens when Democrats listen.

[-] Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

2% April, 8% July, 11% October is how much Biden was supposedly ahead in 2020. Then won by a bit under 8%.

Polls for New Hampshire in 2024 have been following a similar pattern. Harris being ahead 6% is slightly below Biden at this same time last election. Which isn't much to get hyped about.

[-] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

Compare that to Biden's numbers a week ago.

[-] capital@lemmy.world 21 points 2 months ago

Don’t care. Just vote.

[-] eran_morad@lemmy.world 18 points 2 months ago

Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.

[-] zcd@lemmy.ca 10 points 2 months ago
[-] MagicShel@programming.dev 6 points 2 months ago

Maybe his nepotistic kids with their stupid fucking faces could join him there.

[-] MedicPigBabySaver@lemmy.world 8 points 2 months ago

Fucker should already be in jail. I cross my fingers everyday that he drops dead from something.

[-] dogsnest@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.

SCOTUS just whiplashed

[-] niucllos@lemm.ee 17 points 2 months ago

Keep in mind NH is only vaguely a battleground at the federal level, Biden won it by 7+ points in 2020 and they haven't voted for a Republican president since 2000 and even then Bush barely eked out a win. Push against the fascists still!

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 15 points 2 months ago

But what it does show is a major momentum shift. Going from Trump +2 after the debate (polling Biden vs Trump) to Harris +6 in the same state from the same polling organization is nothing to scoff at

Though as other people have said, polls don't determine elections, we do. Elections are only won when people get involved and when people vote

[-] GreatTitEnthusiast@mander.xyz 3 points 2 months ago

Harris is showing within the margin of error for polls nationally

What we really want to do is look at her chances of winning each state to see the probable delegate total but it's WAY too early to tell and either way we shouldn't get complacent

[-] JayTreeman@fedia.io 3 points 2 months ago

Each swing state specifically

[-] Bojimbo@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

I hear you, but Hillary took it by less than 1% in 2016.

[-] Plopp@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago

Trump edging out Biden

Oh ffs the imagery. Phrasing, please.

[-] WindyRebel@lemmy.world 11 points 2 months ago

Don’t worry! I’ll help you out here

Trump edging ~~out~~ Biden

There you go. I edited it for you.

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I like that USA is now talking about their own person instead of giving the orange one all the attention

[-] Thrife@feddit.org 7 points 2 months ago
[-] balderdash9@lemmy.zip 6 points 2 months ago

Remember a week ago when there was "not enough time" to replace Biden? Clearly that was bullshit but no one wants to talk about it.

[-] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

I'll stop bringing up how wrong they were. But it will take as long as it took centrists to stop blaming Sanders supporters for the loss Clinton earned.

[-] Zipitydew@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 months ago

That's still accurate now. It would be a 1968 situation all over again if not for everyone agreeing to rally around Harris. Had multiple people stepped forward we'd all be arguing over that at least into September.

[-] balderdash9@lemmy.zip 3 points 2 months ago

Given the recent developments, it turns out its a risk worth taking. Even better had Biden dropped out sooner.

[-] JayTreeman@fedia.io 5 points 2 months ago

New Hampshire is 4 seats. Come back when she's winning Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, or North Carolina

[-] finley@lemm.ee 5 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

It’s hardly been five days.

[-] JayTreeman@fedia.io 3 points 2 months ago

And November is a long way away. These articles about polling are ridiculous. Harris isn't even officially the candidate yet

[-] finley@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Yet here you are, complaining that she isn’t ahead in all these swing states yet. So which is it? She hasn’t done enough yet or it’s too soon to tell?

You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

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[-] skozzii@lemmy.ca 4 points 2 months ago

Supporting Trump is so 2016, get with the times...

[-] MindTraveller@lemmy.ca 4 points 2 months ago

New Hampshire Smash

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this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2024
496 points (100.0% liked)

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