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this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2024
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politics
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Ha! I predicted this!
I also predicted Biden’s disaster and asked people around me why the fuck is Biden going to debate Trump. People said “he has no choice”. I found that quite questionable. Now Trump seems to be proving that candidates have a choice.
Sure Trump’s cowardice will damage his campaign. But getting an ass-beating in the debate is even more damaging, as Biden proved. So Trump is making his best tactical move for his ability.
(edit)
I would like it if the headlines were “Trump forfeits the debate” to rightfully emphasize the lossy nature of the decision.
Press X to doubt.
Nothing damages this guy when it comes to his cult. He could go on stage and start sobbing like a child if he bumps his toe on the podium and the propagandists on Fox and the like will just say Democrats set it up to hit him and put pepper spray on the podium or something.
In this case it won't be cowardice, it will be a "totally reasonable" bullshit argument as to why it isn't proper to do and they'll all pat themselves on the back for being "above shitty politics" while beating up Kamala for wanting to debate "out of turn."
It’s about the undecided - not his cult
The problem with the Biden debate situation is that he was trailing in the polls, so he needed a debate with a strong performance in order to win over voters. Obviously, the opposite of that happened.
Trump's margin against Kamala is likely smaller, but he's still slightly ahead. It's probably much more prudent for him to avoid a debate given that Kamala would probably perform much better than him. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
I honestly assumed most of my life that it was just a rule for candidates that they have to debate.
When folk had the tiniest bit of mutual respect for each other and the office, I believe your assumption was correct, but times change.
There was a time where it was a given that we'd have x number of Presidential debates... I can't believe how far we've sunk.
He's dropping in the polls, especially against her. Maybe some people are too young to remember, but candidates usually gain like 10% in the polls after a failed assassination. Or 5% after the convention. And their Vice Presidential Candidate gains after the convention too.
Trump literally had no assassination or convention bump. His ceiling is less than 50% of voters. Kamala Harris has seen a large bump just from jumping into the race. Some swing state polls went from +8 or +10 trump earlier this year, to only +2 against Kamala.
She's only made one speech as the potential candidate! Believe me, she's going to be on top by the day of the debate.
Yes, I hope her momentum continues to grow and that she snaps up the undecided vote as people become more familiar with her.
But at that point, the question becomes whether she needs to debate. The Pod Save guys were saying that if she's ahead in the blue wall states by September it might be the smarter move to stay on the campaign trail and deny Trump the national airtime.
God I fucking hope so. Maybe we get out this way.,,
Can you predict a global Social Democratic overhaul?
I can! As long as people continue coming to message forums complaining instead of passionately making their case, or joining the party and doing something about it, I predict there will be no "global Democratic overhaul", whatever that means to you.
Woah!
Scratch that—make it democratic socialism (otherwise known as socialism)
What would this involve for foreign policy?
I'm particularly interested in a few Islamic fascist states with carte blanche to abuse, well, less lucky countries, but too populated by kinda brownish people. And in Israel with the same privilege.
Do fascists get ignored (they are fine with this, but at least better than support)? Do they get sanctioned (hopes are not high)? Do they get desert-stormed (yes, please, desert-storm Baku)? Or does anything change at all.
I'm not at all from where you are.
Best case, it doesn't get better for you. Maybe they shoot a little less.
Keep your head down and take care of your people. I'm sorry. It isn't right or okay. I'm teaching my son to love people and that's about all I can do.
Good luck. Be hard. Take care of your people.
Where I am this is not a problem (yet), but I'm worried about the country my ancestors are from.