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this post was submitted on 13 Jul 2024
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It will galvanize his base, who were already voting for him, to be sure. But I doubt this will swing many voters. Trump is still Trump, regardless of assassination attempt.
Then you are incredibly historically naive. He was already winning by every available metric. So, if nothing had changed at all there was already an extremely high likelihood of him being reelected. This only serves to further strengthen his chances.
I don't think people really understand how stupid, brainwashed, and weak minded the average American truly is. There are plenty of people who will vote for him because surviving an assassination attempt makes him look strong. Count on it.
I just looked for myself, and NPR/PBS survey has Biden ahead. Many other polls have it basically tied. A few have Trump in the lead by 2-3 points.
I wouldn't personally call that winning by every available metric, although I would agree with you that it looks like Trump has a slight lead.
Were those national popular vote polls? If so, you have to factor in the electoral advantage Republicans have. If the national popular vote is tied, Republicans will win.
Individual polls are meaningless. I only care about the trends of the the aggregate polling. Five Thirty Eight has had Trump leading by an average of 2 points in aggregate polling basically from the beginning. There has never been a time where Biden was ahead during this election cycle. Therefore, using the available metrics it is clear that Donald Trump is on the path to returning to the White House.
You could make points without calling the other person naive. No need to make the internet a worse place.
As far as "every available metric" goes, you're talking polls, and polls are garbage. Every poll had Clinton winning in late October 2016.
And we're in an unprecedented portion of politics in American history, so bringing up historical measurements doesn't convince me like you think it would.
More Reddit-y here by the day…
We will see who did the proper analysis in 4 months time. I'm really hoping it won't be me. Unfortunately, I am also certain that I am correct.
I'm not certain at all, which scares me all the same. Tho the last ten years still hasn't beaten the hope out of me, so I've got that much going.
I don't want to kill your hope. I don't share it, but maybe you can muster enough for both of us.
A sure way to know an unreliable source
We'll see won't we?
Yes, I guess we will find out if you're the world's only legitimate soothsayer with an outcome you've predicted that has 50/50 odds of coming true.
That's not how odds work. The fact there are only two outcomes does not mean the odds of each of those outcomes occurring is the same...
Yes, the braindead thing you're saying you can predict the future. As a remotely reasonable person, I dispute this laughable idea.
Lol exactly, no one knows the future. That's the problem with inductive reasoning and the philosophical idea of the absurd.