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this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2024
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It won't be plausible until it is. I expect it would happen fast. If support for Trumpism shrinks just a little, say by a few percentage points, suddenly they start losing a LOT more elections. Some people get tired of being losers and either stop voting, or start getting involved in Democratic primaries. As support dwindles further, people lose the social group of Republicanism, making it less and less attractive.
Interestingly, Trumpism started with Russian help by doing the opposite. They provided a social seed on r/the_donald and social media in general that allowed people to feel like part of a fun group. I believe the initial group was largely Russian, and they attracted grassroots support through memes and vigilant and quick banning of anyone expressing a contrary opinion. It took less than a year for Trump to go from being a joke candidate to being the Republican nominee.
I think it can fall, and it can fall fast. The last realignment of that caliber in the US was the Southern strategy in the 1960s and 1970s. And the stage is set. Most professional Republicans hate Trumpism, but go along with it in order to keep their jobs. The infighting can potentially make most of the party unelectable, and they know that. It's part of why they're lining up to kiss the ring. They have to get on board or the Democrats might run the next 20 years of American politics (which has also happened before, long, long ago.)
You'd have to be more of a history buff than I am to really know how plausible it is, but I'd advise ignoring the last 50 years and looking back more at historical political realignments for comparison.
As a wise man once said:
See, when it starts to fall apart
Man, it really falls apart
Like boots or hearts, oh, when they start
They really fall apart
RIP to that legend.
Thank you for the insight!