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Swing-state Muslim Americans threaten to vote against Biden
(www.nbcnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2023
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politics
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No, a +1 for Candidate A and a -1 for Candidate B is a swing of 2. A -1 for Candidate B is a swing of 1. 1 =/= 2.
Mathematically yes, you are correct. Politically, no. Conservatism needs low voter turnout to win. More voters = Higher likelihood of a more centrist/progressive victory. There is a reason conservative governments all over the planet are pushing for disenfranchising voters.
Disenfranchising disproportionately affecting one party over another is not the same as “Not voting for X is a vote for Y.”
Were that actually true, Trump would have easily won the 2020 election with 154 million votes, since we’re counting the 80 million nonvoters as votes for him.
Disenfranchising reduces the total number of votes required to get a majority, so not voting for Biden helps whatever republican he ends up going against. Remember how McCarthy only got in the house speakership because Gaetz marked himself as present instead of voting for him? It's the same thing.
So Trump got 80 million extra votes last election and won in a landslide?
No, but Biden could've had an extra 80 million votes were it not for a lot of people being unable to vote.
So nonvoters were not voters for Trump, but instead simply voters who didn’t vote Biden?
Who knows?