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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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I'd say it could lead to some kind of revolutionary movement, but for that it would be helpful if there was already some kind of organized resistance, which I think is not the case. It's definitely a test of Putin's power and will show how good repression and propaganda have been. I'm afraid it's been good and if there is a shift in power, it will just be new assholes with money and weapons, not a revolution. But we'll see, it's definitely interesting to watch.
If you're interested in resistance movements and when they're likely to succeed, here's a good start: https://fullspectrumresistance.org/
The wagner group and the guys behind it are supposedly even more radical than putin is - if they get in power, the war on Ukraine will get much, much bloodier very quickly.