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this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2025
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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New premium column from Ed Zitron, digging into OpenAI and Oracle's deal.
The Oracle deal seemed absurd, but I didn't realize how absurd until I saw Ed's compilation of the numbers. Notably, it means even if OpenAI meets its projected revenue numbers (which are absurdly optimistic, like bigger than Netflix and Spotify and several other services combined) paying Oracle (along with everyone else it has promised to buy compute from) will put it net negative on revenue until 2030, meaning it has to raise even more money.
I've been assuming Sam Altman has absolutely no real belief that LLMs would lead to AGI and has instead been cynically cashing in on the sci-fi hype, but OpenAI's choices don't make any long term sense if AGI isn't coming. The obvious explanation is that at this point he simply plans to grift and hype (while staying technically within the bounds of legality) to buy few years of personal enrichment. And to even ask what his "real beliefs" are gives him too much credit.
Just to remind everyone: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
Another possibility is that Altman's bought into his own hype, and genuinely believes OpenAI will achieve AGI before the money runs out. Considering the tech press has been uncritically hyping up AI in general, and Sammy Boy himself has publicly fawned over "metafiction" "written" by an in-house text extruder, its a possibility I'm not gonna discount.
nah. Sam's a monorail salesman who knows how to say the AI doomer buzzwords.