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this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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Once again, they are only looking at the people who DID vote... Those people always vote, and clearly the proportion of blue "always voters" is dwindling compared to red "always voters". Yes ignorant voters lean red, but it doesn't matter. Stop pretending like there's a huge swath of "swing" voters. There's not. Trump got basically the same votes this time. This election came down to the 10 million Biden voters who stayed home for Kamala. That's it. All the rest of this is nonsense bullshit propaganda to obscure the truth. Why didn't they come out for Kamala??
God forbid Biden were to have run again, it would've still been a landslide, and he aint a woman. Maybe old as shit, but there is still a lot more common issues people grew to not like so much about Biden, then Kamala said she wouldnt be any different from.
I dump this comment because I personally believe reductive narrative will hurt our ability to effectively work together, and probably the biggest part the dems failed.
No informed voter thought Trump would be better for Palestine than Kamala. Remember, people say one thing publicly when their private reasons are actually less popular.
The conservative Muslims who claimed they loved Palestine voted for Republicans because they are conservative. They are using the Palestinian people as political pawns, just like Hamas. They share conservative values with Republicans based on cultural issues. They differ on the justification for it, but they are all supporters of hierarchy. Same with conservative Latinos.
It's not popular to say "I like hierarchy and I want to be on top". Many supporters of hierarchy claim they love "individual rights" when they really want privileges for themselves. That's the reason why some people love the "Bill of Rights" but hate equality.
"They are using the Palestinian people as political pawns, just like Hamas."
Sir, with all due respect I don't think you understand what you are talking about regarding Hamas.
Also no informed voter would actually believe Kamala to be better than Trump is maybe what you meant to say?
The Biden-Harris administration has already rubber stamped the annihilation of the Palestinian people. Every red line was blown through and no significant consequences except them bypassing congress to send more weapons to Israel every few weeks. The worst administration for the Palestinian people all-time is Genocide Joe and Holocaust Harris.
Why does anyone on Earth think she would change from that position when time and time again she preached her allegiance to Israel and no change in policy from Biden?
Do people listen to the shit she says?
And for all the bluemaga soldiers coming to tell me she said talked about a ceasefire - she was also once a proponent of medicare for all and an opponent of fracking. How did those lies work out?
Kamala is a joke just like Trump, liberals are just better at hiding their racism than republicans.
That doesn't change the dems abetting a regime currently committing a genocide. Don't forget over half the nation doesn't vote. It was never about changing already fixed or the elusive swing voters minds, it was about getting people out. Its a little harder to when the voter is aware of a moral conflict regarding their vote, regardless of your percieved political intentions of theirs. Are you doubting a significant amount of voters abstained? Because theres gotta be some reason trump had basically the same turnout while dems lost significantly.
I don't understand your point, is this in relation to conservative arabs?
I made this point elsewhere but it was also far easier to vote in 2020 (in swing states especially).
That is true as well. My state still had mail in so personally I found it no more easier or difficult. Pardon for being shouldacouldawoulda, but in that case vote accessiblilty should've been a top priority for the dems after all of the 2020 bs.
In my humble opinion it was no larger a part than any other potential matter. I mean we're still counting and it has inched closer... nowhere to hope, but I genuinely believe if everyone turned out to vote, we wouldnt have to worry this stuff so much
I think this really should be their goal, and they should trade things to get there. Like, who cares about needing an ID to vote, if you can use voter ID as leverage to get free national ID cards for everyone? (I'm not saying you can, but try?) Exchange president's day as a holiday for election day....make voting access an actual priority.
My point is, most people don't actually care about Palestine enough to sway their votes. Same with most genocides. People don't like them but think other issues are more important. People care about issues that affect them directly. If they're not voting, it means they don't think a decision will affect them (rightly or wrongly).
Conservative Muslims (not Arabs, they're different) mention Palestine as a distraction. They were always going to vote Republican because they are conservative and have conservative values.
Yes they do, and the votes speak for themselves. How is anything more important then genocide? Your comment is racist and disgusting.
8.6% of Biden voters didn't show up for Kamala. That's hardly "most"... In fact it seems like a pretty reasonable percent of the left who might actually care more about the morality of their vote than any other concern. Those are the people we're talking about.
So, fill in the blanks with the most abhorent shit you can garner, I've got to listen to some nice vitriol myself. You see why generalization, is very much a slippery slope?
If you ever care to be a voice of reason and possibly convince people to vote in their own best interest despite being inundated with propaganda against so, then you will learn something from this.
We're not talking about the people who DID vote. It's the people who didn't vote who mattered in this election. Specifically the ones who voted last time but not this time. And many of the ones who didn't vote, made it clear they COULDN'T bring themselves to vote for genocide, and being given no option to not vote for genocide, their only choice was to sit it out. It was a moral decision.
The gender gap in voting narrowed slightly this year, so I feel like this isn't supported by the available evidence. If you could chalk this up to just misogyny you would expect that gap to have widened rather than narrowed
https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-gender-gap-votecast-05672b6426cb5965c446ae2871d97eaf
I believe I conceded that some voters may have had sexism play a part, but being cynical and avoiding crtitique wont get the party anywhere. Its really easy to just say shit, but coming up with solutions is harder. So if its just sexism, I'd like to hear your 5 step plan to mend this qualm.
Maybe that was part of the issue, when voters want change, how is that supposed to help?
Have you seen a demographics poll of the 7 million Biden voters who stayed home? I've been looking. If you found one can you share it please? Thanks
Wrong about mostly everything. Sexism is a part of it, but way smaller than you think it is. Kamala is not popular at all, and the dems are a dying party in their unilateral support of Israel and genocide.
Kamala had the worst speeches and the most disgusting conversations with people during Q&As. She was never going to win. She has no spine and doesn't stand for anything, the biggest puppet we've ever seen.
To add to that, in 2020 we had almost universal mail voting that had been rolled back in most swing states by 2024. In addition, there were a lot of scary stories floating around about Trump supporters at the polls. Lastly, voter suppression efforts do suppress votes (e.g. removing people from voter rolls, closing polling places in blue districts, making voting worse).
Fun fact, the DNC started all of these things in 2016 when they did them all to Bernie and his supporters. The RNC simply learned from their playbook.
But I can agree, some of the people who didn't vote may have been influenced by it being harder to vote this time.
I'm sorry, but the idea that 10 million people on the left chose not to vote for someone just because she's a woman is ridiculous. People who think like that are Republicans and would never have voted blue no matter what.
I'm pretty sure the DNCs entire strategy was making sure people knew they were better than Trump. But okay, I'll give you that one of their failings was not leaning into all the horrible things Trump did or allowed.
Sorry buddy, you don't get to hand waive away yet another failure. This is on the democratic party.
Time to make that change obama promised a reality. Can they rip their lips off their donors butthole? Doubtful
The because she's a woman is major league copium, and if you choose to believe this then you got serious issues.
Everybody who was voting age was old enough to remember the trauma of 2016-2020 without reminders. Yes the dems should leverage everything anyway, but even the non-politically-aware have it in working recent memory. We can take that out of the list of causes.
They should remember without reminders, but do they? The number of people who only seem to remember cheap gas is appalling.
Because she's a genocidal ~~cop~~ prosecutor. Who could be less inspiring?
And the other guy is a genocidal sexual predator felon. Who could more inspiring?
To be fair, they didn't show up for him either.
More inspiring to Republicans? Probably no one. Do you know we're talking about Democrats, workers and progressives?
They didn't show up for him either.
Says a guy who wholehearted supports genocidal Islamist terrorists. October 7th massacre? Now that's inspiring!
The missing 10 million Biden voters is a silly talking point, leads to entitled questions, and reaching infantile and politically impotent conclusions. Are you so dense that you don't know how electoral college works?
I'm sure we could break it down by state... But the missing voters is THE thing that swung this election. Figuring out the true reason those people sat this one out should be everyone's top priority.
Seven states mattered. Look at those.
Georgia: Biden won by 11,779, Kamala lost by 115,100= -126,879 difference ... Trump 2020 2,461,854 vs 2024 2,663,117= +201,263... So Biden no shows wouldn't have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn't vote for Trump)... If they did go vote for Trump then only 74,384 were actual no shows, also wouldn't have made a difference.
North Carolina: Biden lost by 74,483, Kamala lost by 183,048= -105,565 difference... Trump 2020 2,758,775 vs 2024 2,898,428 = +139,653 So Biden no shows wouldn't have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn't vote for Trump)... If they did go vote for Trump then only 34,088 were actual no shows, also wouldn't have made a difference.
Michigan: Biden won by 154,188, Kamala lost by 80,618= -234,806 difference... Trump 2020 vs 2024= +154,795= So Biden no shows would have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn't vote for Trump)... If they did go vote for Trump then only 80,011 were actual no shows, also wouldn't have made a difference.
Alright, I concede... In only some of the swing states would the Biden no shows have changed the results. The electoral college is garbage.
I think finding out whether the Biden no shows actually stayed home or went out to vote for Trump is important. And the people that definitely stayed home, why?
Either way, Dems should stop trying to court the right who might swing Dem one election but then swing maga the next... Court the left, at least they'll only swing between showing up or not showing up. As much as libs like to say not voting= voting for Trump, it's far less of a vote for Trump than an ACTUAL vote for Trump.
I appreciate that you ran the numbers.
When I ran the number I had a few other takeaways worth noting.
Looking at the numbers this way, you see that Trump was able to turnout the vote more than Harris in the seven swing states. What were they doing right? Who were these people?
In NC, you see a lot of split ticket votes. These are people who voted for Trump for President, but then voted for the Democratic governor. In MI, AZ, WI, and NV you see a split tickets electing Democratic Senators.
Swing voters and independents, like you mentioned in your first message, aren't as prominent as self-reporting polling suggests. But low-propensity voters have no loyalty. They may vote, they may not, they may vote Republican or Democrat. They are the true vibe voter. And in the seven swing states, they matter. In a dystopic way, all our fates lie with about 10-15% of the voting population who could take it to leave it.
Finally, as for those who stay home... We have a consistent 1/3 of the voting eligible population who don't vote. Some of these people just haven't reached any meaningful political consciousness. They are young or unhoused or just don't think the system can change. But then there's a portion of that 1/3 that vote one cycle and not the next. This makes a portion of that 1/3 dynamic. But they just don't feel that their vote counts. That last one could change if we change the system. But we only change the system when we are in crisis. And then we only change the system enough to get out of crisis.
Thanks for this... Yeah, I think the Dems need to run a campaign of "we're going to unfuck the election system first and foremost" (and have a good plan) to get a lot of the couch sitters to vote.
They only "came out" for Biden because of covid and because trump was in power during covid and people were angry about how he handled it and there were a lot of mail in ballots.
Without the covid effect I really doubt Biden woulda won in 2020