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this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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If Putin does use a nuke on Ukraine, what's the appropriate response from Ukraine's allies? A full scale invasion to remove Putin from power? I mean if Putin used a nuke once then he can do it again right?
It's hard to say what's appropriate. A lot of people feel like that's already the appropriate move, given their hugely successful election interference, assassinations abroad, continual war crimes, nuclear sabre rattling, allying with rogue nations, and the resulting destabilization of the global power dynamic. How do you deal with that if not regime change? Putin was so sure that regime change was an American aim that he made it a necessity. Paranoid Russian dictators and self-fulfilling prophecies, name a more iconic duo.
In that scenario I'm not sure if Ukraine allies are as significant as Russians allies. I very much doubt China has any tolerance for nuclear eacalation, that sets a precedent that will change how the West behaves in Taiwan. I imagine Xi's fury at being undermined this way would manifest in ways that meaningfully hurt Russia without any actual violence.
That is and was the entire point of the nuclear armsrace back then, sometimes called the MAD (mutually assured destruction) doctrine.
Basically, you stock up enough to guarantee you can destroy the world and now no one can use it, without being, well, MAD.
But Putin might be mad enough to ignore that
The Russians always had plans drawn up to conduct a limited, theater-wide strike or a tactical strike with nukes. MAD was based on the idea no one would do that and that strategic weapons were the only realistic way to use nukes which is scary as hell.
I think the world will still hold back from full war. I expect a significant increase in weapons support for Ukraine, but nobody wants to get their country nuked so they won't put boots on the ground, or attack Russia directly.
Probably a large scale conventional missile strike on Russian military targets Putin himself being the number one priority. He knows that the western intelligence agencies know his whereabouts at all times so unless he's going to live in a bunker for the rest of his life he knows that nuclear strike will literally be a suicide.