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'Dead heat': Trump pulls even with Harris in NBC News poll
(www.nbcnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
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The only thing I can see really shifting it, is people saying they'll support trump to stay in with their communities, then making excuses why they stayed home on election day.
And if I'm honest, that's a hell of a hail mary pass.
Breaking the Libertarian Party as badly as it's been broken(they're polling like a quarter of what they did last time) is crucial in a way I don't think people understand. That's probably where a lot of the young men gains are coming from. They're polling worse now then they got as final results last time. I don't think it can be understated how bad that is, third parties are lucky to get half of what they see in polling. They'll be heading to losing 75% support and most of the remaining 25% are going to be Leftist Libertarians who would probably break Democrat if they had to. The Hardliner Hoppeans and Rothbards are obviously going for Trump and a lot of the Moderates went to RFK Jr who in turn endorsed Trump.
That and the COVID deaths thing was always a bit overstated. Yes, more Republicans died. But like a third more. It's like 44-56. Democrats tend to live in cities which aren't exactly the safest places to be in a pandemic, had Trump not been a moron and just sold MAGA masks or something the democrats would have almost certainly been hit worse. That and some of those Republicans would have died anyway as they tend to be older. The actual net loss compared to usual 4 years is like a point or two, nothing monstrous. They've slipped with older white guys who Biden was running up the margins with, young guys are slipping, Hispanics are holding firm, it's basically a race between that and the black and female gains.