177
submitted 1 year ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world

Non-paywall link

China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

all 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[-] Delta_V@lemmy.world 76 points 1 year ago

Fewer births is good news - a solution rather than a problem. There needs to be fewer humans if we're to avoid cooking ourselves and sending other species into extinction. We should all be so lucky as China to have this 'problem'.

[-] ArbiterXero@lemmy.world 46 points 1 year ago

Sure, but that’s an environmental solution to what they see as an economical problem.

We need to rethink how economies work in a population shrink.

[-] RoboRay@kbin.social 26 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Good news everyone! We all DO have this problem... It's just most obvious in China because they industrialized and urbanized more rapidly than anyone else AND had this stupid legal policy.

Industrialization, urbanization and improving healthcare also significantly drops births, to below the replacement rate of 2.1. The whole world is on this path, with China, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Russia leading the way.

[-] AA5B@lemmy.world 11 points 1 year ago

And before anyone thinks different, the US is on this path too. Our population is still growing because of immigration, but birth rate is well below replacement value and dropping

[-] acceptable_pumpkin@lemmy.world 5 points 1 year ago

Hence one of the miriad of reasons why immigration is such a good policy for a country. Attract younger skilled workers who directly contribute to the economy.

[-] AA5B@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

I’m generally optimistic about the future but this is a place where I’m not. Specifically for the US, immigration has always been a strength. From cultural distinctiveness to the bulk of labor at times to innovation and competitiveness, from arts to science e to technology, people have been attracted to the US from all over the world and have made this place much better in so many ways. Why are so many people trying to ruin it? Why is there such fear? Why are you taking something that’s clearly a strength and trying to ruin it for outselves?

[-] Flumpkin@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 year ago

There is an interesting bit in this channel 5 video. People all over the world have this false image of the US as a paradise and prosperity and freedom, but the lived experience of immigrants is quite harsh in recent years.

[-] ChairmanMeow@programming.dev 22 points 1 year ago

The problem is the aging population.

[-] Altofaltception@lemmy.world 61 points 1 year ago

The problem is lack of bodies for the meat grinder that is the world economy.

[-] Jaytreeman@kbin.social 30 points 1 year ago

The problem is the lack of bodies to make rich people richer

[-] Theprogressivist@lemmy.world 38 points 1 year ago

The problem is lack of bodies for the meat grinder that is the world economy.

The problem is the lack of bodies to make rich people richer

"They're the same picture"

[-] frezik@midwest.social 1 points 1 year ago

It can be a problem for any structure of society. Lots of old people and not enough young people to support them. Or look at Detroit. Infrastructure designed for a city twice the size, and still has to be maintained with a shrunken tax base.

[-] Mouselemming@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 year ago

Instead of dying at an appropriate age, they just keep aging. We need to stop spending so much on living longer. Maybe put more into making dying more comfortable so it's not as frightening. For instance COVID has killed off a lot of old people but it's a horrible way to go. Alzheimer's also, we can't cure it, so do we really want to prolong the agony?

[-] cooltrainer_frank@lemmy.world 7 points 1 year ago
[-] Mouselemming@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Sorry but as an old person myself I got tangled up in all the clutter on that link, so I missed your point whatever it was. [Edit: I read (skimmed ) the very-overwtitten story in the second link and therein lies the problem; we are still trying to extend life and have only falsehoods that pretend to extend youth. There's been no real advancement in extending youthful vigor, nor in holding onto the wisdom of experience without the physical deterioration of the mind and body.]

Me being dead doesn't bother me, it's the various unpleasant ways of getting there, and the responsibilities I have towards others. If I knew my quadriplegic family member would be cared for as well or better than I'm doing it, I'd rather go for the Big Sleep than retirement. My ancient mom has Alzheimer's and I don't want to become that kind of trial to others. I'd rather leave my money to my kids than spend it on myself, especially for healthcare.

[-] Flumpkin@slrpnk.net 1 points 1 year ago

We're not that incredibly far away from rejuvenation: Anti-aging pill for senior dogs is now in clinical trials.

[-] iopq@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago

Who's going to take care of 4 aging grandparents and 2 aging parents when they all share only one young person between them?

[-] AA5B@lemmy.world 6 points 1 year ago

In my own family:

  • my grandfather was one of 13
  • my Mom was one of 6
  • I was one of 4
  • the four of us have a total of 3 kids

Clearly you and your siblings need to up your game /s

[-] MotoAsh@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago

Far too late for that problem. We're already in the middle of the next Great Extinction.

[-] jaemo@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 year ago

It does seem like it's underway doesn't it..

I disagree that we're anywhere close to the middle though. This is just the prologue.

[-] MotoAsh@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Mamy species in number have already gone extinct. I agree it will get much worse, but it's definitely begun.

[-] Spacehooks@reddthat.com 1 points 1 year ago

Let's hope no one pulls a Thanos

[-] jaemo@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 year ago

An extinction even is just a voiceless, faceless, impersonal Thanos, one even Ant-Man couldn't beat...

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 34 points 1 year ago

China has a surplus of men. Russia has surplus of women. Seems like there's an easy solution there.

[-] grue@lemmy.world 32 points 1 year ago

Pretty sure they're both too racist for that.

[-] Windex007@lemmy.world 17 points 1 year ago
[-] grue@lemmy.world 11 points 1 year ago

It's not a matter of puberty; it's a matter of immigration. Which of those countries is going to be willing to accept a mass influx of minorities from the other?

[-] Windex007@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

I thought you said it was racism

[-] grue@lemmy.world 10 points 1 year ago

What, you doubt Russian or Chinese immigration policy could be racist? You think Russia would have absolutely no problem with the idea accepting a whole bunch of Han Chinese men, or that China would have absolutely no problem with the idea of accepting a whole bunch of white Russian women?

[-] Windex007@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Russia is literally offering citizenship in exchange for military service.

China is just beginning to ramp up policy to attempt to address their own population issues.

I absolutely think that all countries are racist. I think it always informs immigration policy.

SPECIFICALLY w/ Russia and China, I think that the mutually beneficial agreement regarding the sustainability of their economies supercedes issues with racism. At least w/ Russia, this is literally evidenced by their immigration policies. I actually don't know what China's immigration policies are w.r.t Russians, but I expect they're roughly aligned with other nations, and they're not singled out unfavourably.

[-] ChicoSuave@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago

Let them fight!

[-] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

This but unironically. The entire east end of Russia is a steamy mix of Slavic and Han Chinese ethnicity.

[-] thefartographer@lemm.ee 20 points 1 year ago

based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

TO THE MOOOOOON!!! 🚀🌝💎✊💎✊

[-] Lath@kbin.social 10 points 1 year ago

The solution is clear. Invade other countries and take their women.

[-] VubDapple@lemmy.world 12 points 1 year ago

Conan, what is good in life?

[-] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 year ago

Trade Russia 100k Uighur men for a tract of land containing women after you already sent all their husband's and young men to Ukraine. You get women and more territory. Russia gets men and more men to fight.

I genuinely wonder how differently this would have played out if China had managed to keep an equal m/f ratio.

[-] prex@aussie.zone 2 points 1 year ago

Huh. I didn't have soylent green on my 2024 bingo card.

this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
177 points (100.0% liked)

News

31214 readers
2483 users here now

Welcome to the News community!

Rules:

1. Be civil


Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.


2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.


Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.


3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.


Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.


4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.


Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.


5. Only recent news is allowed.


Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.


6. All posts must be news articles.


No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.


7. No duplicate posts.


If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.


8. Misinformation is prohibited.


Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.


9. No link shorteners.


The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.


10. Don't copy entire article in your post body


For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS