Zelenskiy forced to recalibrate to avert Nato summit falling-out : worldnews

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 21 points 2 years ago

Significantly, similar language was used by Sullivan, who had been needled by a question from a Ukrainian activist who suggested the US was “afraid of Ukraine winning”.

They want Ukraine to win.

But very slowly.

Very, very slowly.

They want a war of attrition, they want to weaken Russia without the backlash of losing their own soldiers, Ukraine can't win too fast, there can be no peace agreements either.

[-] HamsterRage@lemmy.ca 11 points 2 years ago

They've found the best way to reduce the threat of Russia without committing troops.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 15 points 2 years ago

Yes, using Ukrainians as meat shields.

[-] marmarama@lemmy.world 23 points 2 years ago

The US (and the rest of NATO) is being cautious for a reason, and it's not because they're using Ukrainians as "meat shields."

NATO stocks of war materiel were at historically low levels before February 2022, and it's difficult for the US to commit fully when China is sabre-rattling over Taiwan. That's Xi's (and Kim Jong-Un's, to a lesser extent) gift to Putin. Sabre-rattling keeps the US from engaging fully in Ukraine, even though China won't be ready to invade Taiwan for several years yet.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, it'll be several years before NATO materiel stocks start to grow above 2022 levels, but they will grow.

The question is, will they grow fast enough?

Personally I'm predicting world war in 2027-28 unless the West pulls its finger out.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago

I see, it is now fully justified of them to use Ukrainians as meatshields, thank you for your kind explanation.

[-] marmarama@lemmy.world 15 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

The real meat shields in the war in Ukraine are Russian conscripts. At least Ukrainian conscripts have the conviction that they are defending their country's internationally recognised borders.

[-] credo@laguna.chat 6 points 2 years ago

Ah, so they should just stop helping. Yes?

[-] PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee 4 points 2 years ago

I disagree. In the case of Taiwan and China, it will be the United States Navy in conjunction with the Marines and Air Force that will help defend it.

In the case of the United States and NATO militarily intervening to help defend the Ukraine or Eastern Europe, it will largely be the United States army and the US Air Force in conjunction with our allies that would assist.

Those are two different and largely not overlapping forces in the United States military that would be in play. On the one hand, you have the Pacific fleet command in play, and the other hand you have the European NATO headquarters.

As far as the United States needing to go into a war economy to support prolonged and direct conflict that did not go nuclear, however, that could be a completely different issue. I will let the experts speak to that one.

[-] marmarama@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

That's only true if China gets no further than attempting an amphibious landing on Taiwan. If China succeeds in creating a bridgehead on the island, then many of the same land-based weapons and systems that the US is currently supplying to Ukraine, or that Ukraine would like to have, come into play, including 155mm artillery, rocket artillery, tanks, air defence missiles, and land-based multirole aircraft like the F-16.

From a war planning point of view, unfortunately you can't assume that China's amphibious landing would fail. In fact, I think it's more likely that China would succeed in establishing some kind of foothold on the island in the early stages of a future Taiwan war than not. If the amphibious force is large enough, it would be very difficult to eliminate all the landing craft, especially if there is a successful misdirection.

This is without considering that North Korea could also simultaneously launch a land-based attack on South Korea to dilute any US response in either theatre.

[-] PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Crossing 100 miles of open ocean and landing troops on one of the limited beach areas on the island of Taiwan, which are bordered by builds up urban areas and mountains is going to be one of, if not the most difficult military operation ever to be attempted.

I really don't see how China is going to conduct a faint in the open ocean when you have the United States Navy, the Japanese Maritime self-defense force, the Australian Navy, the Singaporean Navy, the Philippine and Thai navies, as well as Taiwan itself all monitoring every move China makes via satellite as well as using aerial reconnaissance assets. And the moment trying to decides to shoot down any surveillance planes will ratchet up tensions to the point where every single move they do will be challenged with carrier fleets and nuclear submarines operating in close proximity to their Chinese counterparts.

Just doesn't seem likely to work like that. You cannot hide surface ships from satellites. China also doesn't even have enough amphibious landing craft to land meaningful numbers of troops on shore. And even if they did, they would have to constantly resupply said troops while under fire. Good luck with that.

Considering the sheer amount of anti-aircraft missile systems that Taiwan fields, as well as artillery and heavy weapon systems it will be ridiculously difficult to land troops there. But if China wants to throw hundreds and thousands of ships to the bottom of the ocean and lose tens of thousands of their own trained soldiers, I guess that's their prerogative.

They would be much more likely to win if they simply embargo the island permanently, but that would induce the wrath of the United States Navy and risk direct confrontation between the PL n and one of our fleets operating probably in a similar manner to the grain fleets coming out of the Ukraine right now.

Which means politically speaking, this is all a big game of chicken with the potential to cause nuclear devastation in both China and the United States. And potentially Japan.

[-] gens@lemmy.fmhy.ml 9 points 2 years ago

They want to sell guns, while weakening their competition.

[-] weavejester@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

Unlikely; a quicker victory against Russia would be more damaging politically to Putin, and a "weaker" Russia isn't necessarily a less dangerous Russia, as nukes don't need a lot of manpower to operate.

[-] klieg2323@lemmy.piperservers.net 10 points 2 years ago

But a quick war isn't as profitable for the military industrial complex

[-] PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee 17 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

That's not an "outburst," that is simply being open and transparent. What does a things that I really respect about Zelensky is how open, transparent and honest he is when discussing national issues. He has done a lot to rain in corruption, it obviously the resistance against the Russian invasion.

Western leaders would do well to take notice of what he has done and to heed the warnings about outside influences corrupting their own populations and politics.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago

If Xi slightly raised his voice, it would be the end of the world but when Zelensky throws a fit in public, surrounded by world leaders, it's fine.

[-] Rooty@lemmy.world 12 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

One is a leader of a totalitarian state, the other is fighting against a numerically superior enemy who throws out nuclear threats Like they're Pokemon cards. You really can't compare the two.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 5 points 2 years ago

I literally can't tell which is which from your description.

[-] TheMightyCanuck@sh.itjust.works 7 points 2 years ago

Use your noodle. I'm sure you're capable of figuring it out.

Hint: only one country has nukes

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

Both Russia and the USA have nukes.

[-] TheMightyCanuck@sh.itjust.works 4 points 2 years ago

Good to know that Zelensky is the president of the US..

Is it a reading comprehension issue or is your news cycle THAT incompetent?

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

Zelensky? He's just a puppet, a face, I was referring to the real masterminds behind this whole situation.

[-] SaltySalamander@lemmy.fmhy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

Both Russia and the USA have nukes.

Only one of which is waving them around like they're in a dick-waving contest.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

https://news.yahoo.com/cuba-slams-presence-us-nuclear-164703753.html

[-] Piecemakers3Dprints@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Don't feed the troll, eh.

[-] Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works 7 points 2 years ago

Xi fired missiles over the heads of my friends and family because our country had a visitor he didn't like.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

But did any of your friends and family get hit?

[-] Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works 5 points 2 years ago

No, I'm sure it was all perfectly safe and a very cool and normal thing to do. It was a bit different from 'slightly raising his voice' though which is what you originally said.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

You're taking things out of context.

But replying to your comment, I understand your point of view, demonstrations of power for the sake of defending national interests are only fine if the US does it. Did you know they transported a NUKE to a place near Cuba recently? So cool, right?

[-] Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 years ago

Nice set of high velocity goalposts you have there, friend. I don't think I ever condoned anything done by the US, just called you out on your original statement.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

If you'd like I can recommend you some touch typing software to improve your abilities.

I don’t think I ever condoned anything done by the US

It's impossible to condone any action America takes unless you've been brainwashed by liberal-controlled media.

[-] Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 years ago

Not sure what you mean by the touch typing thing, sorry.

If that's really your view on the US though, that's pretty extreme and you might want to question why you might hold such a view. As much as I hate the CCP, I don't think I could say in good faith that it's impossible to condone any of their actions at all.

Anyway, hope you're having a good one wherever you happen to be.

[-] pancakes@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 years ago

Gtfo, tanky!

[-] gary_host_laptop@lemmy.ml 3 points 2 years ago

He has done a lot to rain in corruption

fucking lol

[-] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 16 points 2 years ago

I kind of surprised at the outburst happening in the first place. His Western relations have been slick as hell up until this point and are probably the most impressive thing about the war effort you can attribute just to him personally.

[-] APassenger@lemmy.one 24 points 2 years ago

If you're watching your country lose ground in a war, have difficulties taking it back, and all the help is just enough to prolong the pain - and you're told to celebrate and be grateful while calling a non-collapse a win...

You get to have a bad day, in my book. God help him, I don't want his job for a God damn day.

And, I agree, he's been so consistently on point. Maybe that's part of what makes this a story.

That and people who just want the Ujraine to stop resisting and allow the ethnic cleanse. It happened, it would resume (if it stopped).

[-] zephyreks@lemmy.ca 20 points 2 years ago

I mean, are you surprised? Russia's military spending is pitiful and their equipment is held together by hopes and dreams and corruption.

Yet, the largest, most advanced, and most expensive military in the world (by far) can't find a way to beat them. Ukrainian people are losing their lives every day the war wages on.

This is, of course, all while the West is ignoring the treaty they signed for Ukrainian denuclearization that said that American troops would be sent in the event of an invasion.

If I were Zelenskiy, I'd be livid. I'm impressed by how composed he's been thus far.

[-] Kata1yst@kbin.social 11 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

So, regarding the USA's commitment to Ukraine during denuclearization- Is that really what the US agreed to in the Budapest Memorandum?

The way I'm reading, the text of the memorandum implies the USA, Great Britian, and Russia won't invade and will respect Ukraine's border, and will represent Ukrainian interests on the UN security council if they're threatened by nukes.

I don't see agreements to provide direct military intervention unless I'm missing something important.

[-] zephyreks@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 years ago

https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-budapest-memorandum-at-20-the-united-states-ukraine-and-security-assurances/

Pifer claimed that the US implicitly suggested that "lethal military assistance" was the type of support that would be provided.

Also, since all veto-holding members of the UNSC provided similar assurances, it was expected that direct UNSC peacekeeping intervention would be possible. For obvious reasons, it wasn't.

[-] PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee 11 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Dude, it's not the United States fighting against Russia here. It's the Ukraine military, which is held together on a shoestring budget with donations from NATO. The Ukrainian armed forces military structure is based on Soviet doctrine, with large parts still reflect the Soviet era force structure. Little has changed since then, although they have adopted in NCO structure like you see in NATO forces.

However, many reports out of NATO in the United States have pointed out that Ukraine armed forces still have a long ways to go before they can be ready for NATO integration. Not to mention that the huge variety of equipment that they are currently running, which includes massive amounts of Soviet era weaponry armor and aircraft, on top of a hodgepodge of NATO equipment simply exacerbates their issues.

[-] zephyreks@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 years ago

The only reason Ukraine is still a country is because of NATO intervention. This stretches from early US intelligence informing Ukraine of the invasion to NATO equipment to NATO training. This war is basically a proxy war between NATO and Russia, with Ukraine stuck in the middle.

[-] PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee 1 points 2 years ago

It's a proxy war fully initiated by Russia. They did the same bullshit to us in Vietnam, and they stuck their dick into Afghanistan back in the 1980s. Same shit sandwich, different decade.

If Russia doesn't want to get wrecked, they are free to withdraw anytime they like. No one is forcing Russia to invade another country and to murder thousands of people.

[-] EvilColeslaw@beehaw.org 4 points 2 years ago

This may be a calculated move for the domestic audience. I don't think anyone else would expect more than the deal they got here.

[-] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 3 points 2 years ago

Would Zelenskiy need to be worried about domestic opinion? Last I checked he had an approval rating impossible in peacetime.

[-] credo@laguna.chat 3 points 2 years ago

This person has been posting Ukraine war news for some time, and has 56K followers. See the craziness they posted after the Vilnius results:

It seems to me Zelensky is definitely speaking to a sect with zero empathy.

[-] j4k3@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago

I don't think anyone has seen Russia as anything more than a marketing tool for the US war industry exports business.

Prolonging the conflict is more about showing the potential outcome in Taiwan. Limiting support hardware is a show of strategic reserve capabilities.

The Russian economy is a joke. It is slightly smaller than the single US state of Texas. Advanced Russian hardware was a mirage to sell Soviet era surplus.

China has a reasonable economy, massive industrial capacity, and spends 1/3rd the same amount on the military as the USA. It would need to get super creative to buy a win in that conflict.

It sucks to be Ukraine. If it were up to me, give Putin an ultimatum to leave, admit Ukraine into NATO, and give Putin and his cronies a Neapolitan style escape option on an island somewhere remote. When Russia fails to retreat, send everything to Moscow. Its has already been shown that the roads are open.

[-] Raphael@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago

Typical liberal point of view, hordes of people dying and he's thinking about business and profits.

[-] j4k3@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

Observing is not endorsing

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