As day follows night, Turkey has become Israel’s latest existential enemy. As if in unison, a chorus of Israeli politicians has raised the alarm about a new “Sunni axis” opening up, composed of Turkey, Syria and Qatar.
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But Israel is as serious about setting on Turkey as it was about Iran.
Firstly, the rhetoric against Turkey is bipartisan. It is the leitmotif of the man tipped to replace Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett, who has said that a new Turkish threat is emerging: “I want to be very clear. Turkey and Qatar have gained influence in Syria, are seeking influence elsewhere and everywhere throughout the region, and from here I warn - Turkey is the new Iran.”
The theme was picked up by Amichai Chikli, the diaspora affairs minister, who said the era of the “Shia empire of Iran” was over. In its shoes, he added, walks a new axis: “the Muslim Brotherhood axis of Erdogan’s Turkey, Syria and Qatar. And it’s better to open your eyes now.”
Secondly, the groundwork for Israel’s latest campaign was laid as far back as November 2024, when a month before the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel should reach out to its natural allies - the Kurds and the Druze.
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Today, the mood music in Ankara has changed, and there is an acceptance that Israel means what it says about the coming confrontation. Turkey is focused on building up its deterrence, be it naval, air force or drones.
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Even so, Turkey is playing for time. Turkish defence analysts think it will take three to five years for the country’s air defence systems to reach operational capacity against Israel’s air force.
Turkey’s main response to Gaza was to focus on the creation of a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the same regional powers that helped to mediate the US-Iran deal. That is what Israel fears and is now fighting to dismantle.
Whatever happens now in the Gulf, the main battle line between Israel and the region will be drawn in Lebanon and Syria.