You know what? Fucking do it.
Inflation will really fucking suck for a while, but anything that makes renewables and nuclear the better option is going to be a good thing in the long term. Strangle the oil industry with high prices, we fucking need it.
This won't just affect oil by the way, fertilisers are a direct product of natural gas, bunkering, electricity, transport, the list goes on.
The ripple effect might just pop the AI bubble. Good luck.
Ferts can be made without natural gas, just bit more bothersome. Instead of cracking methane for hydrogen, we'll have to split water.
Im sure it will be great comfort to the billions who starve in a global famine while we spend decades building out the infrastructure for that.
That's probably overselling the importance of fertilizer a little. A huge proportion of the food we grow is completely wasted, rots without anyone eating it, or doesn't "look nice" so gets fed to animals who could just as easily eat other food sources. Another gigantic portion of the is grown inefficiently and stupidly for political and cultural and other asinine reasons, grown in inefficient places, or are inefficient crops to begin with. Sometimes it's all of the above, and sometimes it's not even grown for food at all, it's grown for oil. We burn it, because that's environmentally friendly, somehow. Famine is not a global agricultural problem, it's an economic problem, sometimes an intellectual property problem and almost always a political problem, it has nothing to do with lack of fertilizer, it never has been, and it almost certainly never will be. The whole system is rigged top to bottom, and fertilizer isn't going to make or break it.
Expand graph
Estimates of the global population reliant on synthetic nitrogenous fertilizers, produced via the Haber-Bosch process for food production. Best estimates project that just over half of the global population could be sustained without reactive nitrogen fertilizer derived from the Haber-Bosch process.
Where do you think that proportion wasted is wasted? What happens when energy costs spike and plastics become more expensive? When logistics, transport and storage costs go up, waste doesn't vashish, it grows exponentionally.
We're already building it out because morons think hydrogen is the future of energy.
Here’s the problem with that idea…yes, global prices could go way up, BUT
Most of US refineries can't refine our domestic oil. Everything they run is imported.
haha, reminds me that in 2007 I was delivering flowers when gas prices spiked and I made the mistake of opining that it wasn't all bad - for basically that reason. The owner did NOT appreciate my comments. lol.
Nothing came of it or anything, it was just a little awkward for a bit. And I did express sympathy for her costs. But she could have optimized deliveries SO much better - I tried to help - but she just didn't care. Even though....... it cost her much more gas. heh
She was a good person, just a little blind about some things. :)
This is TERRIBLE! We paid Trump MILLIONS of Dollars and FUNDED a War with Venezuela! HOW could he Do this to US!
-Oil CEOS!
So this makes me think. Did they attack Venezuela first to get access to the oil there and prevent a price spike from happening when they attacked Iran? Or am I giving the current regime too much credit?
They did it to cut off China who was getting oil from Venezuela.
Considering that representatives from the Trump cabinet appeared to be surprised that Iran can and did block the strait of Hormuz, I'd say you are giving too much credit.
Also, the US is a net exporter of oil. National supply concerns aren't the issue so much as global supply shock. Restrictions anywhere lead to price hikes.
Wasn't the Venezuela oil basically worthless because proper extraction would be too expensive to be viable?
It's doubtful if most of the reserves can become viable at any price. (Because the cost of materials increase when oil price increase.) But some are perfectly viable.
But also, even in perfect conditions, if they started drilling right now (what they aren't), it will take several month to start getting any of it.
Not sure if too expensive but the geopolitical risk is too high.
Well if the price goes up then it becomes feasible to extract it. Same with the oil the US has at home. They could also extract it if the price gets too high, the reason they aren't doing so now is because the Middle East oil is cheaper (well, WAS cheaper).
Reminder that literally not one single major oil company wanted to be involved in Trump's plans to exploit Venezuelan oil - with the exception of the one company already there, who basically suggested they might make some very, very small expansions to their operations - because all of them thought it was an idiotic idea.
trumps purpose in venezuela was justa distraction , just like the attack on iran. hes like the person that chases the next new shiny gold item that comes along.
Venezuelan oil production fell off a cliff starting around 2015 and has only recovered to a third of what it was then. It will take years to build industry there back up, so it won't do much right now. However, once it is built back up, it will be a major exporter again.
TBF 2015 is when the US started sanctioning.
Also when oil prices fell off a cliff
Additionally, Venezuela's economy went hyper-inflationary at that time too. With three to five digit inflation rates per year. Yes, they had multiple years with five digit inflation rates. Maduro thought this was a great time to print a whole bunch of money!
Then later, in 2023, when the western world is severing their reliance on Russian oil and Venezeula is an obvious choice as a new supplier, Maduro declares he's invading Guyana (their neighboring state with shitloads of oil). Just fucking torpedoes all attempts at improving things for his country.
venezeuala oil seems very expensive to extract, we havnt heard of venezuela for like 1-2 months already, meaning trump likely has abandoned the country already.
U.S. Oil Industry is largely reluctant to re-invest in Venezuela.
Lots of companies are eager to spend in Venezuela — except the ones Trump most needs
“The most enthusiastic are among the least prepared and least sophisticated,” said one industry official familiar with the responses the White House is receiving.
40bn for Milei and bessenets friends. and 93bn alone just for hesgeth staycations.
At this point either Trump commits to a land invasion and we have 20 years and trillions of dollars and tens if not hundreds of thousands of American lives wasted, not even counting how many millions of Iranian lives would be wasted as well. Or Trump backs down and asks China to act as a mediator because there's no way Iran would trust Trump to negotiate.
Or Trump declares victory (didn’t he already do that?) and goes home. In a bit of circular reasoning, maybe he starts making waves about the Epstein files to distract people from Iran
He can't unilaterally end the conflict and leave because we have bomb-able assets throughout the region and Iran is not letting us off the hook that easy.
Iran should request to have a hand in selecting the next US leader. In fairness, they couldn't do much worse than the US electorate...
I think Russia will "mediate" in exchange for concessions in Ukraine.
Demand destruction will start happening well before it reaches $200/bbl.
Prices of $120-140 begin demand destruction and economic recessions (as 2022 showed), with destruction accelerating past $160. Transportation costs doubling will put almost immediate halts on capex planning for most organizations. I would be surprised if sustained prices beyond $160/bbl could exist for more than a couple weeks before the global economy tail spins so fucking hard it immediately stops consuming the oil supply lost from the strait of Hormuz.
There's also renewables. Solar is already cost competitive and there's no way EVs aren't flying off the shelves right now
Too late. Manufacturing and installing renewables or EV's or literally anything requires diesel.
The entire industrial supply chain is still built on diesel with decades to go before the current glacial pace of electrification makes a significant dent. A massive energy crunch is just going to make renewable buildouts even more materially constrained and astronomically more expensive, there is no way out without economic collapse. The current economic system is not designed around anything other than fossil fuels and will refuse to complete a changeover until no other options exist, which will usually mean billions of homeless starving people getting fucked over.
Are you sure you aren't underestimating the huge volume of demand that needs to be destroyed? I believe something like 20%-25% of demand needs to be destroyed, in both the crude and LNG markets.
The last time demand was 20% lower than baseline was during the two worst months of Covid, when the majority of people were staying inside their home
So the question is: how high does the price of oil have to get in order to force people to consume like they did under the worst of Covid?
I'm no economist, but my gut feeling says it will be sustained significantly higher than $160/barrel.
On Wednesday, the G7 group of nations - the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France - agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf.
Cool. Cool. Cool. Everyone can get sucked into another pointless US Middle East war.
Figures, the one year i plan to drive hours away to attend an expo, gas is going to be triple the cost. I hate republicans so freaking much. They have ruined so many parts of my american dream.
So how is a local rebellion supposed to work when a fat orange won't take his short, weird fingers off the 'fire missiles at everything' button?
the black smoke was supposed to be cover so they can organize... right?
Ah yes, the smog of war
That's okay, I was planning on staying home anyways.
Well of course our babies have been drilling nonstop since Trump arrived so surely production's gone up 115% to offset the loss of 15 million barrels per day!
Honestly fuck yeah
This is fun because when does the war end? When the US says so?
When our country holds Trump accountable for his illegal acts.
So another forever war.
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