People aren't too bright 'round these parts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Unfreedom has an interesting take on the wave of separatist movements. It traces it to a reactionary “politics of eternity”, which is being supported and advanced by authoritarian regimes to undermine the established order based on trade democratic deliberation. See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2016_Brexit_referendum

Now that X and Meta have become dedicated propaganda platforms, and I don’t know that it’s even possible for the government or researchers to get the needed access to determine if there are bad actors manipulating the public in this way now.

From Snyders view, one of the aims of this global effort is to convince people that coordination via democratic deliberation doesn’t work. Proposing ridiculous, highly polarizing referendums and tricking as many people as possible into voting for the most absurd option is a great way to convince everyone that democratic process are stupid, since that is the most degenerate form of democratic activity.

“Here’s how the play is likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead: Carney will be elected Prime Minister on April 28 by a comfortable margin; [Alberta Premier Danielle] Smith will trigger a constitutional crisis, providing cover for Carney to strike a grand bargain that finally resolves longstanding tensions between the provinces and Ottawa; and large infrastructure permitting reform will fall into place. Protests against these developments will be surprisingly muted, and those who do take to the streets will be largely ignored by the media. The entire effort will be wrapped in a thicket of patriotism, with Trump portrayed as a threat even greater than climate change itself. References to carbon emissions will slowly fade…

In parallel, we expect Trump and Carney to swiftly strike a favorable deal on tariffs, padding the latter’s bona fides just as his political capital will be most needed.”

Heres one theory. A separation crisis allows us to displace Russian oil globally and drop energy prices, which is why Trump gave manufacturing a 250% greater tariff than oil and gas, which caused other provinces to vote for Carney en mass since they thought Pierre would side with Alberta and not do reciprocal tariffs to protect manufacturing.

Alberta takes a large hit on its energy exports to the US since it is land locked. Opening up LNG from BC and Alberta to the coast allows it to derive revenue on the global market, which should help when oil prices fall globally due to Trumps actions. The Canadian dollar tracks crude oil prices, so if we dont open up alternative export markets we will be taking a series of hefty haircut, as the US also devalues their dollar to increase domestic production.

https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/the-week-that-was

As the indigenous peoples of the prairies have already pointed out, by treaty, the provinces don't own the lands they're governing. The people can leave.

They don't get to take anything with them.

Say 50.1% of the population vote to leave so it's on, then some people change their minds or some people die while others turn 18, then it's 49.9% who want independence so it's off.

Thats exactly how it went with Brexit, except that they still went through with it.

That's like the entire point of the Clarity Act. You need to have the feds agree on the question and threshold for a leave vote to be valid and binding.

You think 100% of Albertans and Saskatchewanians want to split from Canada?

It's also categorically absurd to mass infrastructure spend on FF export potential to Europe from Alberta. Not only are they weaning off dead ender climate terrorist energy, but they have ample supply capacity from nearby abundant sources. Temporary geopolitical sympathies is no basis for Canada to fund stupidity. If Europe wants to help Alberta cofund something, I'm ok with Canada helping provinces along the way approve permits, but the inherent stupidity should not impact other Canadians.

Ontario and Quebec (and prairies) energy is cheaper with tariff free Chinese help. Solar in Ontario and Quebec would now be cheaper than in Arizona despite much less sun with lower financing costs and cheaper inputs. Chinese battery supplies and factories can both make Canadian EV production competitive, and enhance electricity resilience affordably. Canadian trade of oil for solar equipment helps both Alberta and Canadians achieve desired energy policy/benefits without any stupidity.