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Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.

What do you think?

First image is 2024, second is 2020.

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[-] deegeese@sopuli.xyz 86 points 3 months ago

I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.

[-] hendrik@palaver.p3x.de 24 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)... Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren't that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn't have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you'd probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.

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[-] pennomi@lemmy.world 23 points 3 months ago

With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.

[-] FourPacketsOfPeanuts@lemmy.world 21 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

It's hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.

Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.

Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start..

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[-] ramenshaman@lemmy.world 78 points 3 months ago

Don't forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn't fucking vote in 2024

[-] ShellMonkey@lemmy.socdojo.com 39 points 3 months ago

Need some titles on those columns. I'm guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?

The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.

[-] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 8 points 3 months ago

3rd is the percentage of the vote amongst all demographics.

[-] Railing5132@lemmy.world 8 points 3 months ago

Why are columns 1 & 2 shifter between the two images? Makes comparison harder.

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[-] 3dogsinatrenchcoat@slrpnk.net 37 points 3 months ago

White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him

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[-] El_guapazo@lemmy.world 37 points 3 months ago

The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris' policies.

[-] zbyte64@awful.systems 30 points 3 months ago

Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from "he's a fascist" to "let's put out differences aside". Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.

[-] NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 23 points 3 months ago

I object!

White men voting for trumpism is also the issue.

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[-] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 36 points 3 months ago
[-] sygnius@lemmy.world 28 points 3 months ago

As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There's really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.

Also, first, there's not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it's only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn't going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.

[-] spaghetti_hitchens@fedia.io 22 points 3 months ago

White Dude for Harris here. I am sad face

[-] Revonult@lemmy.world 22 points 3 months ago

White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.

I am ashamed of my peers.

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[-] Landless2029@lemmy.world 21 points 3 months ago

Kamala lost because the Dems didn't show up. Again. Look at the number of votes for 2020 vs 2024. All those "undecided" and "obstainers" that didn't just stay home. They didn't bother doing a mail in.

[-] M0oP0o@mander.xyz 12 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Second highest voter turnout in the US. A difference of only 2,624,285 as per University of Florida estimates so far (the number is likely to go down).

This excuse is getting old.

One, you are assuming people who did not vote would vote dems.

Two, you are pushing blame to the voters who did not show up (and based on the lack of choice it is wild so many showed up)

Three, by pushing that blame on to voters you are almost asking for this to happen again. (By letting the dems keep being crap, pissing off voters, and getting people angry at their neighbours helps the republicans)

[-] hydrospanner@lemmy.world 14 points 3 months ago

First, an explanation isn't an excuse. It's a reason. It doesn't make it okay, it doesn't place or shift blame, it just correctly points something out.

In this case, Trump broadly received the same number of votes as he did 4 years ago, while the Democrats got millions fewer.

There's no assumption there, it's just an observation.

It's not pushing or assigning blame. Maybe they didn't vote because they were lazy. Maybe they didn't vote because they didn't like Harris. Maybe they didn't vote because they didn't like the process by which she became the nominee. Maybe they didn't vote because they've lost faith in the entire system.

Regardless of reason, and regardless of how any observer decides to interpret it or assign blame, the facts speak for themselves.

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[-] reliv3@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago

Yes, we are comparing the numbers to the highest voter turn out (which was last election). Biden was able to move 6-7 million more people to vote than Kamala, whereas Trump got about the same as he got in 2020.

Voters have to take some responsibility here. Trump's base are all being con'd because they are ignorant on how most of the world works beyond their own backyard. Its possible that this is partly true for the 6-7 million people who didn't vote this election cycle.

The issue isn't so much that they didn't vote for Kamala, but rather they did not have the ability to recognize Trump as the con that he is. Me being of average intelligence feels like this should have been easy to decipher.

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[-] Maeve@kbin.earth 18 points 3 months ago

The Dems would have won if they ran a campaign relevant to the struggling and apprehensive. They didn't. They lost.

[-] HeisenbergsName@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago

Every other Lemmy comment section told me that it was Anti-Genocide college students who cost Kamala the election /s

[-] WamGams@lemmy.ca 8 points 3 months ago

It's never any 1 constituency to blame.

But maybe a campaign telling independents and centrists that liberals are doing genocide while not also running on saying, "Republicans will genocide more, however," was a really bad idea.

I'm not sure you guys bear the moral responsibility for Kamala losing, but I do think there is an argument to make for bearing moral responsibility to helping ensure more death happened.

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[-] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 17 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Democrats failed to solve people's issues. That's just it.

But Americans are in for a hard awakening if they think that in general Latin American population is progressive or left leaning. And that democrats have their guaranteed vote.

Each person is different, of course. And the average doesn't change any person individual values.

But on average Latin American countries tend to have overwhelming conservative cultures when compared with USA/Europe.

This doesn't negate any Latin American person who is progressive, of course. Just talking about averages and the reality that was shown by the polls.

In general Democrats, and any left leaning party, think that because they defend immigrants, immigrants will support them by default. This has been shown far from the truth. If someone have conservative values they will probably vote for a conservative party. That's just it. One person won't become progressive (as in stopping being sexist or transphobic) just because they moved from one country to another. An immigrant is a whole person with their own sets of values, both before and after they migrate, and won't be reduced to "being an immigrant" when voting, specially once they are legally settled in a place and their residence won't be at risk, they will just vote for their values. If they have conservative values they'll vote conservative if they have progressive values they'll vote progressive.

[-] Wes4Humanity@lemm.ee 10 points 3 months ago

Many legal immigrants get pissed if you conflate them with illegal immigrants. They try very hard distance themselves from those people. Couple that with pervasive machismo and Catholic ignorance and this is what you get.

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[-] edgemaster72@lemmy.world 15 points 3 months ago

To actually answer the post title you'd have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.

[-] enbyecho@lemmy.world 15 points 3 months ago

I know! Let's blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.

[-] jatone@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 3 months ago

not gonna happen. harris supporters still think genociding and massive wealth inequalities are okay. dems have lost my vote nationally until they start supporting labor and stop fucking warmongering.

[-] enbyecho@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago

Congrats on your surplus privilege! But I have some bad news for you...

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[-] Nougat@fedia.io 13 points 3 months ago

I prefer to blame stupid racist people instead of ethnic groups.

[-] Yerbouti@sh.itjust.works 13 points 3 months ago

Decades of under-education could only lead to shit. But even for a cynical asshole.like me, your country electing the best friend of the most notorious pedo, after he tried to overtake the previous election is quite something.

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[-] Kalcifer@sh.itjust.works 13 points 3 months ago

It's really unclear, to me, what these tables are even saying. What's each column?

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[-] Rhynoplaz@lemmy.world 13 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%

[-] LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net 15 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I think you’re getting confused by the column placement. This appears to be a 19 point shift towards Trump which seems substantial.

[-] Rhynoplaz@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Yup.. You're right. 19% of 5% is 0.95%.

Much more, but not enough to tip the scales.

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[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 12 points 3 months ago

These are national statistics. They bear no direct relation to the outcome.

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[-] uebquauntbez@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

Kamala Harris lost cause she's female. And didn't ~~lie~~ promise (that much) to voters. And had the richest 0.5% of US voters against her. This is cause the oldest wannabe-democracy of the world lost his state long ago.

[-] LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net 10 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I don’t think this is what you intended OP but we should be careful not to blame voters here. Trump and his enablers are to blame for what he does, not voters.

That said, this is interesting. The shift to Trump among most communities was tiny, which could explain why most people were so surprised by this outcome. But why did Latinos shift to the right so much? That’s what I’d like to know.

The shift in the other category was also huge. Are those mostly Asian voters?

[-] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago

I’m not blaming anyone, I’m just pointing out the actual data and asking how & why? For example,

White turnout increased this election, but trump lost some white men & women support again like he did in 2020. And it appears Harris did bettter with white women than Obama, Hillary or Biden. The white vote didn’t change that much.

Black turnout was slightly down, and Trump was able to make a small 2% gain from black men, which isn’t much considering they made up 5% of the electorate this election.

As for the “other” demo. It’s every other ethnicity, but none of them are really big enough to have really big impact unless a specific state has a very large percentage of them and they all go overwhelmingly one way.

So I’m just saying, the only big outlier I see is the Latino vote. Which shifted HUGE for trump, and it appears that’s what won him the election. And I’m asking is that true? And if so, why? Compared to other demos.

[-] ZombiFrancis@sh.itjust.works 10 points 3 months ago

A functional, coherent working class policy would've ticked some of those numbers in the campaign's favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.

[-] scarabic@lemmy.world 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Since Trump’s number one message was about immigration, it makes me wonder how Latinos took that message. A bystanding white person might think that US Latinos should be appalled at the way Trump painted Mexican immigrants as criminals.

But then again, maybe Mexican immigrants who’ve been in the US a while look down on those recently arriving, or don’t want more of them to compete with. After all if you are a Mexican immigrant, you probably compete with other Mexican immigrants for work on some level.

So there again we have the failure of identity politics. It’s about simple “me” economics, not “we” identity.

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[-] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 8 points 3 months ago

It is also crazy that I lived long enough to see more Latino men vote Republican than white women 😂

[-] ShellMonkey@lemmy.socdojo.com 6 points 3 months ago

Do some rough math say there are 200,000,000 total eligible voters.

2024 would have 12,000,000 male Latino voters 2020 would have 10,000,000 based on the 3rd column

Even if 100% went left to right at most you have a 12M shift.

That shift though in absolute numbers was far less than that though based on the R/D split, so not a tremendous impact over all.

There was just a lot less people showing up over all for any reason.

[-] solrize@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago

I don't think anyone shifted right. They just didn't want whatever it was that Harris was selling.

[-] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 13 points 3 months ago

Ummm, yes they did. Latino male turnout went up 1%. More of them voted this election than 2020. Which means they shifted right.

[-] Catoblepas 6 points 3 months ago

The percentage of all Latino voters going up between 2020 and 2024 doesn’t necessarily mean there was more turn out from Latinos; if the voter demographics have shifted between 2020 and 2024 so that Latinos make up 1% more of the population, then they are still turning out at the exact same per capita rate as before, as a group.

Which sounds like a short time, but that’s a small shift and plenty of people turn 18 every day.

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[-] GeorgimusPrime@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago

Someone pointed out that a lot of Latinos are effectively white, like Cruz and Rubio.

Miami Cubans are absolutely convinced they're white and not immigrants. Source : 20+ years in Miami

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[-] Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago

If that lasr column is population, latino men are 1/7 compared to white men. So the larger difference is much smaller than it appears. And how did there get to be so many more latino women than men.

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this post was submitted on 24 Nov 2024
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